Topic: OSCARS 2021- Nominees, Odds and Predictions! - page 4. (Read 1885 times)

I haven't watched any of these movies but I am affected by the odds.Nomadland has an 1.4 odd while the others have really high odds compared to this.I don't think we can judge by the odds in movies like we can in sports because each one of us has different emotions during a movie.Some people may prefer the movie with the highest odd so I would not bet on any of these events.

Don't know much about the others, but it now looks confirmed that Chadwick Boseman will be selected as the best actor. I don't have any issues with  posthumous nominations for Oscar, but I believe that the rules should be same for everyone. Heath Ledger never got the nomination, despite the fact that he deserved it in 2009. He was instead given the "best supporting actor" award.

There is definitely a campaign and budget to pay people to drum up support for oscar wins and nominations.   I'd still say oscars go with movies that deserve it in the main, so long as there is competition in that year you are talking the cream of the crop.   Just watching any of the nominated movies is probably fine, many people consider the win just personal preference and being nominated will boost sales enough that it has distinguished a movie from the crowd.
  People are always biased to the popular and its already known who are the favourite actors.   Actors sometimes do awfully in a role and dont deserve any recognition or possibly they just keep playing the same role and its not worth any special praise.   The oscars itself has its own bias and its towards the greatest drama I think not politics, acting does have a left wing bias imo but its not universal so I dont label oscars political in that way.  I would say sentimentalism or something which is not a criticism exactly.

I didn't know this Latvian bookmaker (bovada.lv) but it's currently blocking IP addresses from my country, do you know why?
Markets for all Oscar categories are available on Stake.com, so I'll will use this one and recommend it instead of yours I think.

Can't they simply but the Jury who is going to judge and declare the winners? Are the movies that win Oscar, worthless? I believe that those who try to make their 'movie team' win are the ones who may have earned a very hefty amount of money because of such movies and is trying their best to let those best candidates get these awards? That's because then, people will DEFINITELY go and watch their movies.

Of course it's manipulated. Studios spend hundreds of millions of dollars advertising their latest blockbusters, when other moviemakers could make 50 movies with that same amount of money !

To win Best picture at the Oscars you must first be a candidate, then you must do a lot of promotional stuff, TV interviews on all the channels, basically spend millions again just to have a chance.

The Academy Awards have been more than just about movies since their inception. Actors and filmmakers have a long tradition of taking action and speaking out about what they believe is right at the ceremony. And they have no plans to abandon the tradition anytime soon.

That's nothing new really, that Oscar has been used by both actors and Academy for political statements. From Marlon Brando and his refusal to pick up Oscar given for his role in The Godfather due portrayal of Native Americans in the movies, 2004 when Crash won the Oscar (undeservingly ) and up until now. So in my opinion, no much point wasting time on that.

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I've updated the first post with odds of  ten categories that were missing them initially

That will be the fairest way to give awards as it will be based on data that cannot be manipulated, however we must also admit that many times popular movies are not really that good either, the issue comes when those that are supposed to vote for good movies instead vote for movies that align with their values and with what they want to transmit to the pubic, at that point it is not longer an award ceremony to the best movies and instead it becomes nothing more but a platform to disseminate their own views to the world, which is why less and less people watch the Oscars.

Quite a few people in this thread have missed a key point about the Acadamy Awards (Oscars) in that it has become a very topical platform for political statements to be made.  Look to the winners of the recent Emmy Awards and you will see strong voter preferences for performances in very relevant to today stories.

The Oscars will be no different.

I agree with the first post of your post, that Trial of Chicago 7 is nothing special really, despite the fact that I really like courtroom dramas, but this one was simply an average movie at me. It's probably more about the subject, than the quality of the movie itself.

Regarding the other part, Oscars usually favors dramas, that's how it goes, but also bear in mind that 2020 was a bit different than others; no one wanted to produce and release an expensive big blockbuster movies like in previous years simply because of the closed cinemas.So why would someone invest 200-300 million of dollars if they can't make the profit? 

If everythig was ok, I am sure that we would get more of those "big" movies among nominated ones for the Best Picture. First one that comes to my mind is Dune, that was postponed for late 2021 and I am pretty sure it would end up among nominated ones. And guess which ones are cheap to produce? Dramas.


That doesn't make much sense, and I sure hope awards will never be given on that basis. Most viewed doesn't equal quality.


Yep, that pretty much sums it up for me. I will keep watching everything that he makes, but I don't expect much anymore. But who knows, maybe he can surprise.

Yeah, I can see him being the type of director that goes for the overall aesthetics rather than the depth, however, there are examples where overall aesthetics created an artificial depth that was then left to the spectator to interpret however they want. Maybe I'm going a bit philosophically with this but it can be done that way, it's just that Nolan does not seem to have a grasp on how to do it. To sum it up, my guy Nolan is just trying too damn hard to stick out of the box but just does not have the chops for it.

Also, the Oscars for each category are won through votes by the members of the academy. This makes it always open to politics, lobbying and manipulation. Hollywood has also been one of the greatest influencers on which storyline and course the world should follow. I reckon for the next 10 years China will use Hollywood to influence everyone to love and agree with its own storyline. I predict a famous director will create a movie about Mao Tse Tung as a good protagonist hehehehe.

At the Cannes festival the best movie is always like that, so it's not unusual there. It's true the Oscars are usually more about big budget, mainstream movies, but I guess not this year. Even if superhero and star wars movies do well, you couldn't give them oscars every year, there would be no point either.

At Cannes what they did is to add a new category : public's choice. There the movie that will win will be one of the most popular of the year.

I do not get it, I watched the trial of Chicago 7 to see what it was about, it was second in odds after nomadland, and I checked all others out before as well this was the last one. I have to say I really didn't like any of the movies, what is this point of Oscars only given to movies that are "artistic", like a lot of monologues, a lot of dialogues, a lot of feelings, like it's so artistic, I end up feeling like banana peeled to wall worth 150k in art form type of deal here.

I do not think this was the real thing. Go check the box office top 100 and you will see maybe 20 of them are like that, the top 10 is all super heroes and star wars and alike, you do not see anything like these movies in there. Why pick what people do not watch as the best movie? I mean whichever movie was viewed the most that year should be the best picture, that's for sure, these movies wouldn't get 1 billion dollar level even if every single cinema in the world showed it. This year is exceptionally bad.

Anyone winning or not winning a film because of the amount of light their skin tone reflects is equally ridiculous to me, what category would that come under comedy perhaps.   I hope for a better basis to votes then nonsense tbh

Closed down circumstances could aid some films that are not block busters.



Been watching The Father, its not an easy film to have in this format.   It could win film editing as the cuts to display the malaise of the central character aid the story telling well.  Its a hard subject that faces us all and our relatives, the demographic of the oscar voters is invariably older then the average population because it can takes decades to earn an oscar; they could have sympathy to the films testimony.
   Hard to judge if it wins, its as far away from a blockbuster as can get and most of the film is one or two rooms of a flat.   Theres no valid criticism, its all well done just a hard subject to portray on film.

I have no real qualms about piracy but I'm a cinema fan so I prefer to watch movies in the best conditions, and I haven't bought yet a house big enough to have my own home cinema room.

Others think like me that Black actors etc. will win big ?

Pretty sure when googling those movies you will find them without watching live in cinemas. there are has any kind of resolution, blue-ray, HD, 3gp, DVcam and etc. we don't make a fault when watching it on an illegal resource ( we are lockdown) even Netflix didn't launch yet of the movie.

This is going to be extremely problematic for the movie industry, while it is true that there is nothing like going to the cinema and watch a good movie I still think that this year is also going to be bad for them, and while streaming services are growing in popularity there is no way they can obtain the same kind of profits with those services precisely because of the point that you bring, online piracy is more popular than ever and as we know there is no way to stop it, so unless they find another way to monetize their movies it is possible that we are going to see many companies in that industry going bankrupt.

Despite The Father being a drama, when you think about it, it was actually a pretty scary and disturbing movie. I read at few places that thats exactly how dementia looks like and that Hopkins (and Director & Screenwriter) was spot on, in the way that illness was presented. I saw people being portrayed in that state in some other movies, but it was never as terrifying and detailed as in this one.

That's why I said in my previous post that Hopkins would easily win his 2nd Oscar if it was normal situation. Since I am at it, I do think that Olivia Colman deserves Best Supporting Actress Oscar too, as both Maria Bakalova (Borat) and Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari) were inferior to her while they have better chances to win according to bookies, for God knows what reason. Just academy being academy I guess... but those compensations are the worst. Like when Pacino didn't get an Oscar for Serpico, Dog Day Afternoon or Godfather 2, but he got it for that cringe fest also known as Scent of a Woman, instead of Clint Eastwood for that masterpiece Unforgiven and especially Denzel Washington for by far his best performance ever in Malcolm X!



Yeah, unless you are ready to illegally obtain them its practically impossible to watch all of them by now, but few of them are available on Netflix (Mank and Trial of the Chicago 7). Regarding Tenet, it will probably win those Oscars in technical categories.



Thanks for your input, I will soon make my own list. I plan to do both who I think will win, and who I would like to win, so some kind of combo.