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Topic: Pirate accomplices - page 8. (Read 30339 times)

member
Activity: 100
Merit: 10
August 28, 2012, 12:52:51 AM
...mmm...Brunic, do you actually know what pirate was doing to legitimately earn 7%/week, or do you just have a theory?


It's the "unofficial" theory I could say. I can't say I know, since I'm only a small part of his business, I can only suppose.

But this theory is a great business model IMHO. If I had the resources and the customers, don't worry, I would not be losing my time on this forum trying to explain it.

So just a theory, then.  Thanks for responding.   Smiley

Definitely not trolling - although I do admit I often come off as a troll.  I guess I should work on that.   Grin
vip
Activity: 571
Merit: 504
I still <3 u Satoshi
August 28, 2012, 12:52:39 AM
BTCST already ended badly.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 28, 2012, 12:47:02 AM


Also a key detail people are not talking about is gpumax...



Either it's not a key detail or Pirate was lying when he said gpumax was unrelated (I think he was lying...).
It is unrelated.

I think gpumax is brilliant as a standalone, legitimate business.

But if BTCST is a scam, then I think it's probably involved somehow.
member
Activity: 100
Merit: 10
August 28, 2012, 12:45:27 AM
I'm a little late to the conversation here, but I've done a considerable amount of reading on this matter over the last few days.  Frankly, I've yet to see any substantial information on pirate's business model posted anywhere.  I've seen many who claimed they knew what pirate was doing, but nobody provided any specifics (for the typical dubious reasons).  The most detailed info on pirate's op I've been able to find is in this post:

You didn't find shit.  It was in this thread about a page up.  I've already offered my guesses as to whats going on in other threads.  If you're so lazy that you want me to do the work for you, I couldn't be half assed.  My job isn't to defend pirate.  My post history is freely available and I'm sure within the last 10 pages you can find something that'll suit your fancy that you can properly distort.

I've been a pretty decent sport about answering questions as neutrally as possible and all I get for it is a bunch of trolling and people insulting my intelligence.  It isn't much encouragement to continue the dialogue.

Sorry, I wasn't addressing you.  I was addressing Brunic.  I guess I should've been clearer about that.

But there's no need to get in a twist about anything, since I stated that your post was the only substantial info I've been able to find on pirate's business model.  And FYI, I read the quote of your post a couple of days ago in another thread.  

Funny, I thought I was complementing you.

 Cry

EDIT:  nope, I'm wrong.  I did read imsaguy's post in this thread.  and nowhere else at no other time.  Time to stop drinking I guess.   Undecided
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 28, 2012, 12:41:42 AM


Also a key detail people are not talking about is gpumax...



Either it's not a key detail or Pirate was lying when he said gpumax was unrelated (I think he was lying...).
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 28, 2012, 12:39:00 AM
About growth, pirate always reserved himself the right to return coins if he didn't need them, and it occurred at certain occasions. At first too, he had limited capacity, and always advertised how much was available. There was no infinite growth, far from it, he kept the growth under tight control.

The almost exponential growth happened in the summer, when PPT were freely available and competing each other. It's possible that at that time, he couldn't supply the orders he had, even if the growth was astronomical. Also, think about the customers of pirate. They also saw the price go from 4$ to 6$, 7$, 10$. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of customers having orders of like 50k BTC in a moment of panic buy. It's only 500 000$ right now, it's a pretty cheap investment for something that went from 5$ to 15$ in less than 3 months.

But at the same time, the crazy growth is what killed the golden goose. The fact that pirate is closing is proof enough that this growth was not sustainable. If the type of growth the PPT gave him was sustainable, the operation would still be running.

Seriously, some of you guys need to go read the BTCST topic back from the start, and see the whole thing evolve. You're talking like Pirate had control of 500k BTC for the last 8 months, and paid 1 120 000 BTC in interests for the last 32 weeks. You're taking the end and making the whole story with it, instead of reading the story back from the start.

Deposits were increasing exponetially (roughly) from start to finish, not just in the summer. As dooglus has said, exponential growth in a finite universe is impossible to sustain. It's math that killed the golden goose, and Pirate took the eggs. When the growth of compounded interested exceeded the net growth of deposits, Pirate pulled the plug.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
August 28, 2012, 12:38:16 AM
I'm a little late to the conversation here, but I've done a considerable amount of reading on this matter over the last few days.  Frankly, I've yet to see any substantial information on pirate's business model posted anywhere.  I've seen many who claimed they knew what pirate was doing, but nobody provided any specifics (for the typical dubious reasons).  The most detailed info on pirate's op I've been able to find is in this post:

You didn't find shit.  It was in this thread about a page up.  I've already offered my guesses as to whats going on in other threads.  If you're so lazy that you want me to do the work for you, I couldn't be half assed.  My job isn't to defend pirate.  My post history is freely available and I'm sure within the last 10 pages you can find something that'll suit your fancy that you can properly distort.

I've been a pretty decent sport about answering questions as neutrally as possible and all I get for it is a bunch of trolling and people insulting my intelligence.  It isn't much encouragement to continue the dialogue.

Depends what your idea of money laundering is.
sr. member
Activity: 336
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August 28, 2012, 12:34:20 AM
The above + other stuff I've read here indicates money laundering

money laundering doesn't mean what you think it means.
vip
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August 28, 2012, 12:29:59 AM
I'm a little late to the conversation here, but I've done a considerable amount of reading on this matter over the last few days.  Frankly, I've yet to see any substantial information on pirate's business model posted anywhere.  I've seen many who claimed they knew what pirate was doing, but nobody provided any specifics (for the typical dubious reasons).  The most detailed info on pirate's op I've been able to find is in this post:

You didn't find shit.  It was in this thread about a page up.  I've already offered my guesses as to whats going on in other threads.  If you're so lazy that you want me to do the work for you, I couldn't be half assed.  My job isn't to defend pirate.  My post history is freely available and I'm sure within the last 10 pages you can find something that'll suit your fancy that you can properly distort.

I've been a pretty decent sport about answering questions as neutrally as possible and all I get for it is a bunch of trolling and people insulting my intelligence.  It isn't much encouragement to continue the dialogue.
member
Activity: 100
Merit: 10
August 28, 2012, 12:24:19 AM
D&T, the theory we've explained to you has been floating around for many months and coming from different people. Even pirate back in March or April somewhat confirmed this. It's not coming out of the blue. There is no new news here, we're only explaining what has already been explained a couple of times before.
Huh

...mmm...Brunic, do you actually know what pirate was doing to legitimately earn 7%/week, or do you just have a theory?

I'm a little late to the conversation here, but I've done a considerable amount of reading on this matter over the last few days.  Frankly, I've yet to see any substantial information on pirate's business model posted anywhere.  I've seen many who claimed they knew what pirate was doing, but nobody provided any specifics (for the typical dubious reasons).  The most detailed info on pirate's op I've been able to find is in this post:

and to further expand..

When I first joined #bitcoin-otc, I did a crapton of trading.  I did a bunch of moneypaks to btc and back.  Basically, playing market maker for whomever needed to move.  Pirate joined around the same time as me, a few days earlier if I'm not mistaken.  He was doing much the same thing.  As a result, it was inevitable for us to end up trading.  At various times, we each would come up with some big fish (or so it seemed at the time) and would help each other out with sourcing coins or finding coins good homes.  All of these trades were always online, with random people that would join #bitcoin-otc.  Eventually, pirate had some 'IRL' customers and it seemed they were larger than your typical moneypak transactions.  Eventually, I got into mining rather than trading because of a few bad moneypaks that someone screwed me with.  It seemed safer and less time intensive.  Meanwhile, pirate seemed to be branching out his trading and there were times where he needed to borrow coins.  When trading, you'd try to line up the incoming with the outgoing to minimize exchange risk and maximize profit, but then sometimes things go weird with one side or whatever and a person would end up needing to borrow.  It happened to me at times in the past so I didn't think anything of it to loan out.  Time went on, the lending became more regular and one thing leads to another and we end up here.  Pirate never really told me what he was doing but I felt I had a good grasp of what was going on.  The dip in and out of two transactions could make 10% pretty easy (5% on both sides, sometimes much more than that) so 7% actually seemed fair.

The above + other stuff I've read here indicates money laundering - not ponzi - to me.  Reason being that market plays/arbitrage/trading skill by pirate would only last so long.  IMO, money laundering is the only model that's sustainable for any length of time, given the returns pirate was paying.  Problems would only occur when the guy(s) with dirty money who will pay >=10% to clean it stop showing up on a regular basis.  I think that's just what happened.  To me, it's the only non-ponzi explanation that fits.

But since you claim pirate's operation has been explained on these forums ad infinitum, it should be a simple matter to point me to a post that explains pirate's legitimate operation succinctly.  Or perhaps you could spend a paragraph explaining your understanding of it.  After all, there's no reason why you or anyone else couldn't divulge their knowledge of pirate's op now, and without ambiguity, unless his op was illegal from the gitgo.

 Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 27, 2012, 11:50:48 PM
But when he started opening up to public BTC, did he ever say no? Even something growing by leaps and bounds would need to setup some controls such as investment rounds. Perhaps he is a wizard who can plan for a completely uncapped investment flow. So far I haven't seen anything past speculation at his business model, far from the confident proclamations of "I've figured it out and you might be able to as well if you are resourceful" from some Pirate backers a while ago.

2) So much growth he doesn't seem to have a need to control how much inflow of investors there are? Opening up to the public with seemingly no limits or buy in rounds? I know this is an "internet" business but I thought the dotcom bubble and now facebook would have killed the idea of such growth.

There wasn't unbounded growth.  There were people that weren't ever going to invest with Pirate.  There were people that were only going to invest X with Pirate.  Still others couldn't afford to buy more coins because they ran out of funds and/or the price was goin gup past their preferred purchase point.  That only leaves the new coins from mining and obviously, that's limited as well too. 
vip
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August 27, 2012, 11:40:54 PM
2) So much growth he doesn't seem to have a need to control how much inflow of investors there are? Opening up to the public with seemingly no limits or buy in rounds? I know this is an "internet" business but I thought the dotcom bubble and now facebook would have killed the idea of such growth.

There wasn't unbounded growth.  There were people that weren't ever going to invest with Pirate.  There were people that were only going to invest X with Pirate.  Still others couldn't afford to buy more coins because they ran out of funds and/or the price was goin gup past their preferred purchase point.  That only leaves the new coins from mining and obviously, that's limited as well too. 
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 27, 2012, 11:38:00 PM

I see being 'dense' goes both ways, because I already answered 1) a few posts up.

2) I expect business growth.

3) I can just imagine the additional stink people would make if he didn't pay total the interest due on things. I know its a drop in the bucket compared to the principal. It may have also just been an oversight.  I really don't know, he hasn't told me.

4) If he sells coins to investor Y at say $10, coins that weren't really his, but coins that he borrowed off you and I, he must return the coins to us.  In the past, the coins were slowly appreciating, so once they hit $11, investor Y would sell.  Well, he announced the closure and the price tanked.  So now investor Y doesn't want to sell.  Sure, pirate's got cash he could buy coins.  We all know trying to buying a bunch of coins on gox is going ot make the price jump like a SOB so that's a terrible option.  Meanwhile, investor Y's pissed that he's taking a loss.  Perhaps the contract from pirate guaranteed a certain minimum price for X amount of days.  A whole slew of scenarios could be there.  Regardless, the sudden closure has thrown a wrench in things.  Probably an overreaction on pirate's part, but Monday morning quarterbacks always pick the right play.

2) So much growth he doesn't seem to have a need to control how much inflow of investors there are? Opening up to the public with seemingly no limits or buy in rounds? I know this is an "internet" business but I thought the dotcom bubble and now facebook would have killed the idea of such growth.

3) An oversight he has never corrected, riiiiiiiight.

4) It's not sideline quarterbacking when he's the one who set out his payout rules. If anything it's amateur refereeing, heh.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
August 27, 2012, 11:37:47 PM
Quote
One:
No rich idiots exist that buy 10% over price.  Period.  Certainly not enough to move 500K BTC a week every week into perpetuity.
I disagree.  Look at the spread that coinabul charges.  It is closer to 20%.

Um that is why coinabul isn't moving $5M in gold a week.  Hell they probably aren't moving $5M in gold this year.

Poor execution.  Does the owner even leave mommy's basement?

Actually I think whoever started it is smart. Even though the premiums are high, it's pretty much the only option out there if you want to convert BTC to hard currency almost completely anonymously and avoiding the prying eyes of the tax man. It's great if... say you are a SR vendor and need some way to get tens of thousands of dollars a week without the money passing through though a bank on your end. Sell the bullion to a local dealer or oraigslist for cash money...
legendary
Activity: 1274
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August 27, 2012, 11:36:38 PM
And since as of late the questions seem to be directly posed at me, I'd like to say I don't speak for Pirate, nor have I talked to Pirate in the last day.  The last time I talked with Pirate was in his IRC channel for the Q&A with everyone.
I think it's more just that you were one of the people involved with the first pass through and profess to have a basic understanding of his system. Since Pirate has seen fit to grace us with an average of 1 or 2 lines a day in IRC, you fill in in his steed.
vip
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August 27, 2012, 11:33:39 PM
And since as of late the questions seem to be directly posed at me, I'd like to say I don't speak for Pirate, nor have I talked to Pirate in the last day.  The last time I talked with Pirate was in his IRC channel for the Q&A with everyone.
vip
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August 27, 2012, 11:31:14 PM
Do you really think there is a never ending line of rich fools out there lining up to buy bitcoins at over inflated prices week after week?

I think there are more than you're willing to give credit.


Further,by compounding the interest they would need to increase their appetite for btc or he would need to find increasingly more and more rich fools.

Please point me to a solid number that was verified by Maged or someone else reputable that indicates just how much was actually reinvested, because AFAIK, nobody really knows that answer.
vip
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August 27, 2012, 11:29:18 PM
I do think it's a viable business idea on some level. I believed it at one point, mostly because I wanted to believe.

But it's the volume of BTCST plus the extraordinary interest rates (over such a long time) that make me unable to believe it.

Possible, maybe. I just don't think that is what is actually taking place. If it weren't for my new bet, I would like to be wrong.

It's also very easy for a legitimate investment scheme to slip over into the realm of ponzi. I do tend to think it was a scam from the start, and that this business idea is the only one Pirate could propagate to justify borrowing so many coins. It was only a matter of time before someone realized how simple a bitcoin ponzi scheme would be to pull off. Inevitable.

Yes, saying D&T is "missing it" is pretty flippant. If that was his model:

1. Why was Pirate's appetite for more BTC seemingly insatiable, until he closed?

2. How was he able to promise consistent returns for such a long period of time?

3. Why has he not publicly stated interest compounding has ceased?

4. What is it about this claimed trading model that has left him seemingly short of quite a bit of BTC a week after closing?

I see being 'dense' goes both ways, because I already answered 1) a few posts up.

2) I expect business growth.

3) I can just imagine the additional stink people would make if he didn't pay total the interest due on things. I know its a drop in the bucket compared to the principal. It may have also just been an oversight.  I really don't know, he hasn't told me.

4) If he sells coins to investor Y at say $10, coins that weren't really his, but coins that he borrowed off you and I, he must return the coins to us.  In the past, the coins were slowly appreciating, so once they hit $11, investor Y would sell.  Well, he announced the closure and the price tanked.  So now investor Y doesn't want to sell.  Sure, pirate's got cash he could buy coins.  We all know trying to buying a bunch of coins on gox is going ot make the price jump like a SOB so that's a terrible option.  Meanwhile, investor Y's pissed that he's taking a loss.  Perhaps the contract from pirate guaranteed a certain minimum price for X amount of days.  A whole slew of scenarios could be there.  Regardless, the sudden closure has thrown a wrench in things.  Probably an overreaction on pirate's part, but Monday morning quarterbacks always pick the right play.
vip
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August 27, 2012, 11:20:39 PM
Out of curiosity imsaguy...
1) How do you pronounce your name? I keep pronouncing it like I'ms (or Iams, like the dog food) A Guy
2) At this point, given the long delay and minimal communication do you think Pirate will be able to pay out the rapidly increasing debt he owes as per the terms of his post (principle + interest to the hour)?

1) Illinois Math and Science Academy (IMSA)

2) I've said and continue to say that I am going by the terms of the Vandroy bet which has a deadline of Wednesday if I'm not mitaken.  When the bet was made, it seemed no one had issues with the terms, so if both sides signed off on it, I should be ok with it as well.  It is frustrating to not have any information, but outside of filing legal action, there's not a lot I can do.  Most lawyers (hell, even the credit bureaus) won't touch any sort of default until at least 30 days  have passed, so it seems prudent to wait and see.  So to answer your question directly, the longer things go, the lower my expectations.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
August 27, 2012, 11:19:58 PM
I do think it's a viable business idea on some level. I believed it at one point, mostly because I wanted to believe.

But it's the volume of BTCST plus the extraordinary interest rates (over such a long time) that make me unable to believe it.

Possible, maybe. I just don't think that is what is actually taking place. If it weren't for my new bet, I would like to be wrong.

It's also very easy for a legitimate investment scheme to slip over into the realm of ponzi. I do tend to think it was a scam from the start, and that this business idea is the only one Pirate could propagate to justify borrowing so many coins. It was only a matter of time before someone realized how simple a bitcoin ponzi scheme would be to pull off. Inevitable.

Yes, saying D&T is "missing it" is pretty flippant. If that was his model:

1. Why was Pirate's appetite for more BTC seemingly insatiable, until he closed?

2. How was he able to promise consistent returns for such a long period of time?

3. Why has he not publicly stated interest compounding has ceased?

4. What is it about this claimed trading model that has left him seemingly short of quite a bit of BTC a week after closing?
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