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Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 20. (Read 71521 times)

hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.

I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect

Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

The notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.

Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.
hero member
Activity: 870
Merit: 585
The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
sr. member
Activity: 437
Merit: 255

What if I was leveraged x10 all in for $100k? huh? huh?


Money is a devil  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.

What if I was leveraged x10 all in for $100k? huh? huh?


...


ok, I wasn't Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 295
Merit: 250
I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ...

apart from emotion, I don't know what you are trying to convey?
picture this:

there will be 21 trillion XBT or 2.1 quadrillion satoshi(s) once distribution is complete (a bit more than half of this now).
mentally replace all (or nontrivial % of each) $$, euro, yen, yuan in the world with XBT.
What do you gain: incredible increase in payment fluidity and monetary velocity plus security plus other advances (smart contracts, etc.).
what do you lose: almost nothing

this is point B, when you can get paid in XBT, will save (at least some) in XBT, which will be at least as stable as any currency is today.
You would want more XBT, and you will earn it by working or investing.
Now, we are at point A.
Getting from point A to point B is where the difficulty lies.

Counterparty is recreating Ethereum’s smart contract platform on Bitcoin (currently on testnet). The smart contracts you mentioned will soon be possible on the Bitcon blockchain.

http://counterparty.io/news/counterparty-recreates-ethereums-smart-contract-platform-on-bitcoin/
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
hero member
Activity: 688
Merit: 500
ヽ( ㅇㅅㅇ)ノ ~!!
fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.
The next real spike will find many Bitcoiners naked save for a Bitcoin flag, running through the streets and climbing up national monuments. (Along with the above.)
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ...

apart from emotion, I don't know what you are trying to convey?
picture this:

there will be 21 trillion XBT or 2.1 quadrillion satoshi(s) once distribution is complete (a bit more than half of this now).
mentally replace all (or nontrivial % of each) $$, euro, yen, yuan in the world with XBT.
What do you gain: incredible increase in payment fluidity and monetary velocity plus security plus other advances (smart contracts, etc.).
what do you lose: almost nothing

this is point B, when you can get paid in XBT, will save (at least some) in XBT, which will be at least as stable as any currency is today.
You would want more XBT, and you will earn it by working or investing.
Now, we are at point A.
Getting from point A to point B is where the difficulty lies.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Good lord that is a wall of text. Maybe try to condense your post.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

My point was that $$ wealth pyramid has almost exactly the same features as current bitcoin wealth pyramid.
Unequal wealth distribution is common. Redistribution would occur slowly through the same mechanisms as now: people with more productivity/ingenuity will able to earn more.

I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ... ...
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

My point was that $$ wealth pyramid has almost exactly the same features as current bitcoin wealth pyramid.
Unequal wealth distribution is common. Redistribution would occur slowly through the same mechanisms as now: people with more productivity/ingenuity will able to earn more.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
Incidentally, true redistribution will only be possible IF big lucky aka first adopters hit the panic mode and sell most of their coins. If they never sell, no true redistribution will happen, it will indeed be a fight for scraps for most people that aren't already FIAT rich.

Not really true - early adopters will spend, donate, make bad investments, die etc.

Life is too short, the majority will not horde enough to make a meaningful impact on the ecosystem 25-50 years out

Exactly, it will vanish over time. Only the lucky and productive ones will built up larger stacks of Bitcoin during their lives. For the rest, it will just be a fair and stable ledger. You know, like money is supposed to work.
full member
Activity: 142
Merit: 100
Incidentally, true redistribution will only be possible IF big lucky aka first adopters hit the panic mode and sell most of their coins. If they never sell, no true redistribution will happen, it will indeed be a fight for scraps for most people that aren't already FIAT rich.

Not really true - early adopters will spend, donate, make bad investments, die etc.

Life is too short, the majority will not horde enough to make a meaningful impact on the ecosystem 25-50 years out
member
Activity: 124
Merit: 11
Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

The big players can only spend a Bitcoin once. No printing games, no bailouts, no pork. Let first adopters be first adopters. In time, the distribution will become better. Ask yourself: who creates value day in day out?

Incidentally, true redistribution will only be possible IF big lucky aka first adopters hit the panic mode and sell most of their coins. If they never sell, no true redistribution will happen, it will indeed be a fight for scraps for most people that aren't already FIAT rich.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

The big players can only spend a Bitcoin once. No printing games, no bailouts, no pork. Let first adopters be first adopters. In time, the distribution will become better. Ask yourself: who creates value day in day out?
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh
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