Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 22. (Read 71514 times)

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...



and the hypothetical cyclical market...



then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

As other posters have recently pointed out, the 8th october full moon also comes with a blood moon eclipse. Visible over china!

Such coincidence!

Actually if all you guys came together & decided not to let go of your coins for no less than $1,000 eventually the price would reflect that... If someone tries to buy a BTC but everywhere he turns everyone wants $1,000+ then everyone would suddenly not get rid of their coins for any less!!! Honestly, why even trade it for fiat?! That's when the value literally becomes PRICELESS

If they buy even 3mil BTC that means 1/5 of the supply is controlled by a single entity. Wait for price to climb to 31, sell, profit huge.

I'm sure someone will bid $42 million worth of BTC @ $2. No worries 

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

Full moons make people crazy! There was some posts a while back about them coinciding with market events.

Right now I'll take anything

October 8th is a full moon, but you're referring to bitcoin going moon?

You have to consider miners getting more effienct very fast.

A miner that is delivered a fee months late is worthless on arrival(unless bitcoin value spiked during those months) that's how fast miners advance. This will continue to happen at least until miners catch up with the current line of semiconductor technology, which is 14nm I believe.

As long as ASIC chips are lagging behind on chip technology they will have a very rapid growth compared to moores law because catching up is easier than having to design new hardware from scratch.

Also you need to consider the limitations to the actual manufacturing. Miners can want more equipment all they want but if the miner manufacturers can't keep up with producing them, the miners can just wait forever.

There's only so much miners that can be produced in a certain timeframe so even if bitcoin value goed through the roof a couple of times, the energy consumption will not be requiring the output of three suns, because simply not that many miners can be produced that sudden.

 

I'm sorry to say but it is no longer a "normal" people game.

The reason I stated the estimate of 300$ is that even at today's price, industrial mining rigs can still churn out profits.

That's all that matters. You argued that at 500,000$/coin the cost of mining would be "just" below. I demonstrated that it can and will be dramatically below.

Actually they arent. Prices would have to be a lot closer to last ATH for mining to be profitable (at least for "normal" people buying devices).

Just to max out on the hyperbole in my speculation, full moon is just 4 days away...

What does this have to do with what I said though ?

In his defence he wrote www, not internet.
Mosaic was pretty much the first "widely" used browser, and that was 93.

Why go for a suggestion? Just plug the numbers into any damn mining calculator.
E.g. a brand new Antminer S4 will break even after 5 months. Assuming you pay 5 c/kWh and the difficulty will NOT increase any further. Even assuming a mere 15% difficulty increase per month it will never break even (current 30 day average is 26%).
Either you can get something like a 50% discount of retail prices or you can forget turning a profit from mining currently.

He thought the internet was developed in 1993. Did you even read further after that statement? 

If the price of bitcoin rises 100x tomorrow the mining cost of a bitcoin in the near term does not. The mining cost will rise as demand for miners rises to capture profit from the block reward minus cost of production, but this is a delayed response, with a definite lag period.

My point was simply that in for example november/december last year the price shot up 10x in very short order. Mining has since surged to capture that demand and the hash rate has gone ballistic.

In this example with a bitcoin valued at 500,000 dollars, however unlikely it seems, such a price could arise in a bubble situation where the price rises many fold over a short period of time, far exceeding the pre bubble mining cost of securing the network. So although I doubt we will ever see such high prices they do not necessarily require the hundreds of billions of dollars in electricity costs that goat has inferred earlier. Sustaining such a price is a different matter entirely..

Sure, but they ALWAYS lag behind.

Consider that some suggest it currently costs about 300$ or so to mine a coin at today's hash rate.

This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.