[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 21.

log2exp

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Quote from: Biodom on October 09, 2014, 09:19:23 PM

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg

29m > 21m, number of people in the top triangle will drop to the next level, eventually.

Biodom

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Quote from: fewcoins on October 09, 2014, 09:16:46 PM

Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg

fewcoins

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Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

Biodom

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Quote from: Odalv on October 09, 2014, 05:38:58 PM

Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 10:22:08 AM

Quote from: Odalv on October 06, 2014, 10:09:33 AM

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

This is a fair counterpoint. I guess EW people would probably back it too. They would have all of this as part of a much larger wave which not only scales up vertically (price) but horizontally (time). Its an appealing premise because it sounds reasonable and likely. Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though? Do you think adoption will be that slow?

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in-between.

> Do you think adoption will be that slow?
550% / year is really not slow. :-) ($12 - 2012, $66 - 2013, $363 - 2014, $1996 - 2015, $11k - 2016 ... )

> Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though?
I think, there are not more than 100,000 believers (real bitcoin users, investors, bulls with $$ ).

http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

A) 7,500,000 will be minted ... but not tomorrow :-) ( few mining farms )

B) only 15,391 addresses control 9,042,676 bitcoins. ( investors )

C) only 620,000 addresses control 4,200,000 bitcoins. ( I see this as real adoption. But looks like 2M BTC is owned by creator or lost )

D) the rest 1,900,000 addresses control only 21,000 coins. ( trolls )

==
Soon group A) and B) will stabilize price (decreases volatility, weak hands shaken out) and will "slowly" build new economy (increase count of C members)

People can and do have more than 1 address.
In fact, A. Antonopoulous said that he has 2000 addresses , which is probably an overkill.

Odalv

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Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 10:22:08 AM

Quote from: Odalv on October 06, 2014, 10:09:33 AM

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

This is a fair counterpoint. I guess EW people would probably back it too. They would have all of this as part of a much larger wave which not only scales up vertically (price) but horizontally (time). Its an appealing premise because it sounds reasonable and likely. Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though? Do you think adoption will be that slow?

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in-between.

> Do you think adoption will be that slow?
550% / year is really not slow. :-) ($12 - 2012, $66 - 2013, $363 - 2014, $1996 - 2015, $11k - 2016 ... )

> Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though?
I think, there are not more than 100,000 believers (real bitcoin users, investors, bulls with $$ ).

http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

A) 7,500,000 will be minted ... but not tomorrow :-) ( few mining farms )

B) only 15,391 addresses control 9,042,676 bitcoins. ( investors )

C) only 620,000 addresses control 4,200,000 bitcoins. ( I see this as real adoption. But looks like 2M BTC is owned by creator or lost )

D) the rest 1,900,000 addresses control only 21,000 coins. ( trolls )

==
Soon group A) and B) will stabilize price (decreases volatility, weak hands shaken out) and will "slowly" build new economy (increase count of C members)

pinksheep

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Quote from: heartastack on October 06, 2014, 09:22:44 AM

Will everyone be dissapoint if we only see 56k/coin

I won't be disappointed if we only see 56k/coin Grin

frienemy

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I was promised da moon

Quote from: brg444 on October 06, 2014, 12:56:58 PM

Quote from: frienemy on October 06, 2014, 12:53:50 PM

@sgbett:

If you chose 30.000 instead of 300.000 for the endgame, maybe then people wouldn't be so clueless here. The thread wouldn't be half as funny, though Wink

but 30.000 makes much less sense than 300.000

Just for educational reasons Wink

brg444

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: frienemy on October 06, 2014, 12:53:50 PM

@sgbett:

If you chose 30.000 instead of 300.000 for the endgame, maybe then people wouldn't be so clueless here. The thread wouldn't be half as funny, though Wink

but 30.000 makes much less sense than 300.000

Biodom

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Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 10:22:08 AM

Quote from: Odalv on October 06, 2014, 10:09:33 AM

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

This is a fair counterpoint. I guess EW people would probably back it too. They would have all of this as part of a much larger wave which not only scales up vertically (price) but horizontally (time). Its an appealing premise because it sounds reasonable and likely. Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though? Do you think adoption will be that slow?

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in-between.

it already went down much further than I expected. I thought that it would be above 340 (or 383 for 3X instead of 4X).
I think comparison of 2013 "bubble" in its entirety ($12 to $1150, disregarding initial bump to $266) and 2014 correction has to be made with 2011 "bubble" (from $0.1 to $32) and correction to $2. If we follow that, correction to either $240 (~X20 of base as in 2011) or above $72 (if same % as in 2011) would suffice.
Of course, $275 is close enough to $240, so we may have achieved the "proper" correction level, but anything between $72 and $240 is possible if we compare to 2011.

frienemy

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I was promised da moon

@sgbett:

If you chose 30.000 instead of 300.000 for the endgame, maybe then people wouldn't be so clueless here. The thread wouldn't be half as funny, though Wink

brg444

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Activity: 644

Merit: 504

Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: Odalv on October 06, 2014, 10:09:33 AM

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

I don't know how anyone could think this, this seems so counterintuitive to me...

It ignores EVERY technology adoption curve out there.

As sgbett pointed out. It also ignores greed which is the biggest fuel for BTC's price rises.

This would suggest that as adoption grows and more people are acquainted with Bitcoin's value proposition the pool of potential adopter shrinks.

As far as I can understand it this is not how network effects behave. At least not until we have reached a halfway point in adoption where Bitcoin has become so widely spread there are fewer people not using/invested in it than there are Bitcoiners.

It seems so blatently obvious to me that the potential for a massive bubble increases every time Bitcoin becomes exposed to a more important percentage of the population and turns the eyes of bigger and bigger fiat whales.

Gold is a very bad comparison considering its physical nature and usability. The digital nature of Bitcoin and its infrastructure makes it enormously easier for a mainstream population to transition out of fiat.

fewcoins

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GLTA we will def need it for the rest of the year...

sgbett

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Quote from: Odalv on October 06, 2014, 10:09:33 AM

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

This is a fair counterpoint. I guess EW people would probably back it too. They would have all of this as part of a much larger wave which not only scales up vertically (price) but horizontally (time). Its an appealing premise because it sounds reasonable and likely. Do you think that the fear/greed cycle can really be avoided though? Do you think adoption will be that slow?

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in-between.

jcoin200

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Activity: 504

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Quote from: cinder on October 06, 2014, 10:11:43 AM

Are you selling everything you have to bet on bitcion?

560k prediction is just as absurd as 10 dollar prediction.

actually $10 seems completely reasonable right now. might not stay for long, but its within the realm of possibility

cinder

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Are you selling everything you have to bet on bitcion?

560k prediction is just as absurd as 10 dollar prediction.

Odalv

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As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50 = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)

sgbett

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Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: FUR11 on October 06, 2014, 08:34:53 AM

Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 08:18:19 AM

Quote from: FUR11 on October 06, 2014, 07:22:54 AM

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...

and the hypothetical cyclical market...

then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k

and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though Wink

Well, I applaud the effort, definitely! Hey, this is the speculation forum! I love a good speculation. But between all this TA and conservative approaches, this really looks completely foreign to me Cheesy

I fail to understand how this is supposed to forecast anything. And why do you see $300k as the final target price?

Because you have to pick a number and $1m seems so unlikely Wink

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

300k gives it a $6.3T market cap, which is a fair assumption if BTC becomes the new "money" of the world. (you could argue more!) if it stays niche then probably the end price is less - say the winklevosses 40k per coin (840bn market cap)

The thing is though all of that is focused on absolute prices, you are right this model doesn't forecast a price. It forecasts a behaviour. It prepares you for what a market might look look if it had to get from A to B if adoption were to follow a typical s-curve adoption (with a fear/gread cycle modifier). Human brain isn't geared for exponential rises, particularly where money is concerned, particularly when bitcoin is currently still a tiny speck on the global economy. An economy which it could very well become a big part of.

This is an old but still relevant image:

heartastack

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Will everyone be dissapoint if we only see 56k/coin

FUR11

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FURring bitcoin up since 1762

Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 08:18:19 AM

Quote from: FUR11 on October 06, 2014, 07:22:54 AM

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...

and the hypothetical cyclical market...

then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k

and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though Wink

Well, I applaud the effort, definitely! Hey, this is the speculation forum! I love a good speculation. But between all this TA and conservative approaches, this really looks completely foreign to me Cheesy

I fail to understand how this is supposed to forecast anything. And why do you see $300k as the final target price?

fewcoins

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Quote from: sgbett on October 06, 2014, 08:18:19 AM

Quote from: FUR11 on October 06, 2014, 07:22:54 AM

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...

and the hypothetical cyclical market...

then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k

and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though Wink

What a waste of time... Bitcoin is not following a typical graph of markets but rather a flat line of greed!

Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 21. (Read 71511 times)