Topic: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! - page 10. (Read 33330 times)
June 24, 2014, 06:36:56 AM
FIFA Worldcup Round of 16 games now on Predictious.
June 24, 2014, 06:36:16 AM
looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.
If buy was lower than sell, anyone could buy immediately and re-sell for a risk-free profit. You cannot have the buy price lower than the sell price as we would match the lowest buyer with the highest seller and create a transaction so the order would disappear immediately.
Here are examples on how Predictious work:
Buying: Let’s say you are buying a long share at 4 mB. You are paying immediately 4 mB to buy the share. If your bet is correct, you receive 10 mB, so your profit is 6 mB. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, your loss is 4 mB.
Selling: Now, let’s say you are buying short shares (selling at 4 mB per share). You are receiving 4 mB per share since you are selling, but we’ll take a 10 mB deposit per share in case you lose your bet. So you are effectively paying 6 mB per share to short sell at 4 mB. Then if you win your bet, you’ll get back your 10 mB deposit, so you will have made a 4 mB per share profit. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, you will not get the deposit back, so you will have lost 6 mB.
You can find more details about this here.
Don't hesitate if anything is still unclear.
well, i'm saying buy should be less than sell. all i'm saying is that there is a significant margin to sell, so it's discouraged. for example, hilary clinton to win presidency is 4.14 for buy, and 3.38 for sell. that's something like a 20% difference.other events are almost 2:1 ratio buy:sell.
on top of that, i'm a little hesitant to make a bet for the 2016 elections.. that's 2 1/2 years away and you guys are a relatively new startup.
Ok got you. For the elections, note that you don't need to wait 2.5 years to re-sell your shares, you can re-sell whenever you want and lock profit earlier.
June 22, 2014, 01:45:38 AM
looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.
If buy was lower than sell, anyone could buy immediately and re-sell for a risk-free profit. You cannot have the buy price lower than the sell price as we would match the lowest buyer with the highest seller and create a transaction so the order would disappear immediately.
Here are examples on how Predictious work:
Buying: Let’s say you are buying a long share at 4 mB. You are paying immediately 4 mB to buy the share. If your bet is correct, you receive 10 mB, so your profit is 6 mB. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, your loss is 4 mB.
Selling: Now, let’s say you are buying short shares (selling at 4 mB per share). You are receiving 4 mB per share since you are selling, but we’ll take a 10 mB deposit per share in case you lose your bet. So you are effectively paying 6 mB per share to short sell at 4 mB. Then if you win your bet, you’ll get back your 10 mB deposit, so you will have made a 4 mB per share profit. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, you will not get the deposit back, so you will have lost 6 mB.
You can find more details about this here.
Don't hesitate if anything is still unclear.
well, i'm saying buy should be less than sell. all i'm saying is that there is a significant margin to sell, so it's discouraged. for example, hilary clinton to win presidency is 4.14 for buy, and 3.38 for sell. that's something like a 20% difference.other events are almost 2:1 ratio buy:sell.
on top of that, i'm a little hesitant to make a bet for the 2016 elections.. that's 2 1/2 years away and you guys are a relatively new startup.
June 22, 2014, 01:40:23 AM
looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.
If buy was lower than sell, anyone could buy immediately and re-sell for a risk-free profit. You cannot have the buy price lower than the sell price as we would match the lowest buyer with the highest seller and create a transaction so the order would disappear immediately.
Here are examples on how Predictious work:
Buying: Let’s say you are buying a long share at 4 mB. You are paying immediately 4 mB to buy the share. If your bet is correct, you receive 10 mB, so your profit is 6 mB. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, your loss is 4 mB.
Selling: Now, let’s say you are buying short shares (selling at 4 mB per share). You are receiving 4 mB per share since you are selling, but we’ll take a 10 mB deposit per share in case you lose your bet. So you are effectively paying 6 mB per share to short sell at 4 mB. Then if you win your bet, you’ll get back your 10 mB deposit, so you will have made a 4 mB per share profit. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, you will not get the deposit back, so you will have lost 6 mB.
You can find more details about this here.
Don't hesitate if anything is still unclear.
June 21, 2014, 10:02:37 PM
looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.
June 20, 2014, 01:04:29 AM
Full Updated Odds:
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| Italy | x1.04 | x12.3 |
| USA | x1 | x35.7 |
| Brazil | x1.22 | x4.05 |
| Argentina | x1.18 | x4.57 |
| Australia | x2.92 | |
| Chile | x1.01 | x16.7 |
| Italy | x1.04 | x17.2 |
| Germany | x1.25 | x4.35 |
| France | x1.03 | x12 |
| Portugal | x23.3 | |
| Belgium | x1.01 | x15.9 |
| Holland | x1.05 | x9.8 |
| England | x1.01 | x23.3 |
| Colombia | x20 | |
| Costa Rica | x20 | |
| Uruguay | x28.6 | |
| Japan | x37 | |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | x31.3 | |
| Croatia | x31.3 | |
| Ecuador | x38.5 | |
| Nigeria | x38.5 | |
| Ivory Coast | x30.3 | |
| Ghana | x38.5 | |
| Switzerland | x32.3 | |
| Russia | x34.5 |
June 19, 2014, 02:39:46 AM
Group Stage matches market:
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here.
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| USA to win against Portugal (Group G) | x1.06 | x1.96 |
| Colombia to win against Ivory Coast (Group C) | x2.3 | x1.59 |
| Uruguay to win against England (Group D) | x1.57 | x2.33 |
| Japan to win against Greece (Group C) | x2.25 | x1.61 |
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| Italy | x1.04 | x12.3 |
| USA | x1 | x35.7 |
| Brazil | x1.22 | x4.05 |
| Argentina | x1.18 | x4.57 |
| Uruguay | x30.3 | |
| Italy | x1.04 | x17.2 |
| Germany | x1.25 | x4.35 |
| Spain | x27 | |
| France | x1.03 | x12 |
| Portugal | x1.01 | x17.2 |
| Belgium | x1.01 | x15.4 |
| Holland | x1.05 | x9.8 |
| England | x1.01 | x23.3 |
| Colombia | x20 |
If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here.
June 14, 2014, 05:14:20 AM
Group Stage matches market:
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here.
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| Colombia to win against Greece | x2.78 | x1.43 |
| Uruguay to win against Costa Rica (Group D) | x4.17 | x1.22 |
| England to win against Italy (Group D) | x1.88 | x1.86 |
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| USA | x35.7 | |
| Brazil | x1.33 | x3.73 |
| Argentina | x1.19 | x4.42 |
| Uruguay | x1.01 | x16.9 |
| Italy | x1.04 | x17.2 |
| Germany | x1.13 | x6.45 |
| Spain | x1.12 | x5.29 |
| France | x1.06 | x10.01 |
| Portugal | x1.01 | x17.2 |
| Belgium | x1.01 | x15.4 |
| Holland | x1.05 | x10.4 |
| England | x1.01 | x16.1 |
| Colombia | x23.3 |
If you want to bet X Bitcoins on a contract, you can find instructions here.
June 11, 2014, 03:41:46 PM
Formula 1 world drivers' & constructors' championships now on Predictious:
June 11, 2014, 03:08:50 PM
Here are the odds on Predictious:
Group Stage matches market:
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
Group Stage matches market:
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| Brazil to win vs Croatia (Group A) | x5.13 | x1.13 |
| Chile to win vs Australia (Group B) | x4 | x1.23 |
| Spain to win vs Netherlands (Group B) | x1.96 | |
| Uruguay to win vs Costa Rica (Group D) | x1.96 |
FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:
| Contract | Lay | Back |
| USA | x37 | |
| Brazil | x1.32 | x3.13 |
| Argentina | x1.18 | x5.13 |
| Uruguay | x1.01 | x19.2 |
| Italy | x1.06 | x14.5 |
| Germany | x1.12 | x6.58 |
| Spain | x1.12 | x5.29 |
| France | x1.02 | x16.1 |
| Portugal | x1.02 | x19.2 |
| Belgium | x1.02 | x17.5 |
| Holland | x1.01 | x16.4 |
| England | x1.01 | x22.7 |
| Colombia | x1.01 | x21.3 |
June 02, 2014, 03:04:20 PM
Continuing on Basketball, we've now added the FIBA Worldcup 2014.
June 01, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
Maybe you should try adding some NBA "moneylines" (Team A vs Team B) or Totals (Over/Under) to your contracts.
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added the following contracts:
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/5/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/8/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/10/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/12/2014)
As always, you can buy shares if you think these will happen (Miami Heat winning these matches), and sell shares if you think these will not happen (San Antonio Spurs winning these matches).
Its cool that you added nba its my favorite sport thank you.
June 01, 2014, 09:17:36 AM
Maybe you should try adding some NBA "moneylines" (Team A vs Team B) or Totals (Over/Under) to your contracts.
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added the following contracts:
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/5/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/8/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/10/2014)
- Miami Heat to win against San Antonio Spurs (6/12/2014)
As always, you can buy shares if you think these will happen (Miami Heat winning these matches), and sell shares if you think these will not happen (San Antonio Spurs winning these matches).
May 31, 2014, 10:36:49 AM
May 28, 2014, 11:44:45 PM
Maybe you should try adding some NBA "moneylines" (Team A vs Team B) or Totals (Over/Under) to your contracts.
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
Lets see how it develops!
Keep up the good work!
May 28, 2014, 03:53:16 PM
May 27, 2014, 03:18:33 PM
May 25, 2014, 04:16:34 PM
May 25, 2014, 03:21:30 PM
To make it clearer we've now written this blog article: How do I calculate the price of an order from the stake I want?.
May 25, 2014, 12:42:02 PM
I am a newbie to this market.
Let's take the example of Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize
If I short sell it for 0.10 m฿, it means that I win 9,90 m฿ if it doesn't happen?
Let's take the example of Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize
If I short sell it for 0.10 m฿, it means that I win 9,90 m฿ if it doesn't happen?
You want to sell "Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize" meaning you think this will not happen. If your prediction is correct (i.e he doesn't win the Nobel Peace Prize), you will win the price for which you sold the shares, so in your example 0.1m฿ for each (short) share you own. If you lose, you would lose (10m฿ - 0.1m฿) = 9.9m฿ per share.
So basically, if you buy a contract, you will win 10mB for each share of this contract you own (if you’re correct). On the opposite, if you sell a contract (because you think an event will not occur), you win the price you sell for.
Note that in Predictious you can set your own odds. Of course if you set a selling price per share too high (high return for you), there might be a risk that noone matches your bet (your open order won’t be matched and you won’t own any share). If you click on the Market depth tab, you can see the available ask/bid price (for example someone is selling 3 shares at 2.65mB; 10 shares at 2.85mB, etc.).
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