Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! - page 9.

xoomo

newbie

Activity: 50

Merit: 0

Quote from: Predictious on July 28, 2014, 04:04:02 PM

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants the Hall Of Fame game is only in 6 days, who are you placing your bitcoins on?

Contract	Lay	Back
Buffalo Bills to win	x2.08	x1.70
New York Giants to win	x1.70	x2.08

on Buffalo Bills

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants the Hall Of Fame game is only in 6 days, who are you placing your bitcoins on?

Contract	Lay	Back
Buffalo Bills to win	x2.08	x1.70
New York Giants to win	x1.70	x2.08

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Here are the odds on Predictious for the 2016 US presidential elections:

Candidate	Lay	Back
Hillary Clinton	x1.52	x2.38
Jeb Bush	x1.04	x16.7
Rand Paul	x1.08	x8.33
Chris Christie	x1.06	x9.62
Marco Rubio	x1.05	x10.8
Ted Cruz	x1.03	x18.2
Elizabeth Warren		x18.2
Rob Portman	x1.01	x18.2
Scott Walker	x1.01	x9.71
Paul Ryan	x1.04	x8.2
Mike Huckabee		x2.56
Mitt Romney	x1.02	x2.82
Joe Biden	x1.01	x3.25
Andrew Cuomo	x1.01	x2.56

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Reminder that it's only 2 weeks before the Pro Football Hall of Fame game, opening the NFL Preseason. Place your bitcoin on the Buffalo Bills or New York Giants!

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

The US Open Tennis market is now up and running!

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

New contract on whether the next Keiser Report with guest Frankie Boyle will be censored in the UK.

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

New market on the price of Bitcoin on August 8th (will the price be more than $550, 575, 600, 625, 650, 700?)

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

The Emmy Awards are now on Predictious, we've added the following contracts:

Let us know if you'd like to see other Emmy's categories.

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Will Tiger Woods hold 14, 15 or 16 majors by end of 2014? British Open starting tomorrow, place your predictions!

Predictious

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Activity: 290

Merit: 250

We have now added new contracts on Predictious on the amount that the '5oz MaxCoin Silver Cryptobullion' Crowd-founding project will raise. You will find these ranges: more than $10,000; $30,000; $40,000; $100,000. You can find these contracts here.

For reference, the similar project 1oz MaxCoin Silver Cryptobullion raised $111,699. Note that this 5oz maxcoin silver cryptobullion is only at the concept stage for now. Predictious will take the actual amount raised when it upgrades to a real StartJOIN project.

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

FIFA Worldcup H-4

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Germany	x2.7	x1.5
Argentina	x1.45	x2.7

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Germany	x2.11	x1.73
Argentina	x1.34	x3.66
Holland	x1.21	x4.52

beetcoin

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: mjangler on June 25, 2014, 10:29:22 PM

I think the spreads will get tighter as we get closer to the election. As you said, the election is still over 2 years away and there will be more interest in it as time goes on. You could put up a bid or offer for an amount in between what is available and it might get filled. For example: Buy Rand Paul at 0.99.

the 2014 election shares are up, and there's still a big disparity between buy and sell. i too am thinking that with more volume, the gap between buy and sell will close. but as it stands, there is no point in buying and not letting your shares expire.

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil	x1.33	x2.99
France	x1.07	x5.92
Germany	x1.18	x5.43
Argentina	x1.18	x4.88
Colombia	x1.06	x12.5
Belgium	x1.00	x15.4
Holland	x1.14	x4.78
Costa Rica		x18.9

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil	x1.33	x2.86
France	x1.10	x6.45
Germany	x1.22	x4.76
Argentina	x1.18	x5.68
USA	x1.01	x35.7
Colombia	x1.06	x11.1
Belgium		x25.6
Holland	x1.14	x5.59
Switzerland	x1.00	x34.5

Predictious

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Updated Odds for the FIFA Worldcup:

FIFA World Cup 2014 winner market:

Contract	Lay	Back
Brazil	x1.29	x2.86
France	x1.08	x8.33
Germany	x1.18	x4.88
Argentina	x1.18	x4.88
USA	x1.01	x35.7
Costa Rica	x1.01	x41.7
Belgium	x1.01	x25.6
Holland	x1.1	x7.19
Mexico		x26.3

mjangler

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

A volume based discount might work. If you trade x shares per month you get a percentage discount on the fees.

qxzn

hero member

Activity: 609

Merit: 506

Quote from: mjangler on June 25, 2014, 10:29:22 PM

I think the spreads will get tighter as we get closer to the election. As you said, the election is still over 2 years away and there will be more interest in it as time goes on. You could put up a bid or offer for an amount in between what is available and it might get filled. For example: Buy Rand Paul at 0.99.

That's part of the reason.

Another part is the fees. Liquidity rebates sure would help.

mjangler

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

I think the spreads will get tighter as we get closer to the election. As you said, the election is still over 2 years away and there will be more interest in it as time goes on. You could put up a bid or offer for an amount in between what is available and it might get filled. For example: Buy Rand Paul at 0.99.

beetcoin

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: Predictious on June 24, 2014, 06:36:16 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on June 22, 2014, 01:45:38 AM

Quote from: Predictious on June 22, 2014, 01:40:23 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on June 21, 2014, 10:02:37 PM

looking to learn how this works.. can you tell me why there's such a large discrepancy between sell orders and buy orders? in every event, the sell is always less than the buy.. seems like people don't want to sell their shares.

If buy was lower than sell, anyone could buy immediately and re-sell for a risk-free profit. You cannot have the buy price lower than the sell price as we would match the lowest buyer with the highest seller and create a transaction so the order would disappear immediately.

Here are examples on how Predictious work:
Buying: Let’s say you are buying a long share at 4 mB. You are paying immediately 4 mB to buy the share. If your bet is correct, you receive 10 mB, so your profit is 6 mB. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, your loss is 4 mB.
Selling: Now, let’s say you are buying short shares (selling at 4 mB per share). You are receiving 4 mB per share since you are selling, but we’ll take a 10 mB deposit per share in case you lose your bet. So you are effectively paying 6 mB per share to short sell at 4 mB. Then if you win your bet, you’ll get back your 10 mB deposit, so you will have made a 4 mB per share profit. On the other hand, if you lose your bet, you will not get the deposit back, so you will have lost 6 mB.

You can find more details about this here.

Don't hesitate if anything is still unclear.

well, i'm saying buy should be less than sell. all i'm saying is that there is a significant margin to sell, so it's discouraged. for example, hilary clinton to win presidency is 4.14 for buy, and 3.38 for sell. that's something like a 20% difference.other events are almost 2:1 ratio buy:sell.

on top of that, i'm a little hesitant to make a bet for the 2016 elections.. that's 2 1/2 years away and you guys are a relatively new startup.

Ok got you. For the elections, note that you don't need to wait 2.5 years to re-sell your shares, you can re-sell whenever you want and lock profit earlier.

i don't think you get it.. of course i know you can sell your shares. but the the parity between the buy and sell are so much that you're better off just holding it until it expires.

right now, it's 1.43 for rand paul to win US presidential election 2016.. and sell is at .7. let's say his odds get better and reach 2.00.. well, if the sell holds at that rate, i'd only get 1.00 from a sell. i will have paid 1.43 and received 1.00.. even though his odds have increased.

why is there such a big gap? are there not enough users to create for the market corrections?

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