Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 15. (Read 73367 times)
Since the terms are not scheduled to change until the 20th, it means the terms haven't changed yet. Vandroiy only wins if Pirate actually executes the changes with fewer than 30 days notice. Pirate can still maintain the bet by moving the change 30 days into the future.
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.
===Change in BTCST ToS===
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.
Yep, well, this bet ended even quicker than I had expected.
Nanotube is the final arbiter, but this seems like a clear cut win to Vandroiy, according to Pirate's own terms.
If Pirate cares, (and wants to) could he salvage the bet for now
by retracting the previous announcement, and issuing a new one with proper 30 day notice,
before the lower rates before the lower rates are put into effect?
If not: Congrats to Vandroiy on his 5000 BTC (64000 USD) winnings!
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate?
Vandroiy won the bet because pirate changed the terms it doesnt matter if he changes them back.
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate?
It is almost like it was planned:
- Don’t concede the wager and chance the outcome of Aug 14th.
Ah! There it is. I knew that was a plea to let him out of the bet before he lost it.
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate?
It is almost like it was planned:
- Don’t concede the wager and chance the outcome of Aug 14th.
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.
===Change in BTCST ToS===
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.
Yep, well, this bet ended even quicker than I had expected.
Nanotube is the final arbiter, but this seems like a clear cut win to Vandroiy, according to Pirate's own terms.
If Pirate cares, (and wants to) could he salvage the bet for now
by retracting the previous announcement, and issuing a new one with proper 30 day notice,
before the lower rates are put into effect?
If not: Congrats to Vandroiy on his 5000 BTC (64000 USD) winnings!
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate?
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after announcing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after announcing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
Whoops!
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
Hey Vandroiy, I understand you'll be coming into a large amount of btc shortly. I have an investment opportunity you may be interested in ...
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-savings-and-trust-home-closed-50822
But the "bet agreement" says:
Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.
AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.
I just noticed this yesterday.
That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".
Yes, it is pretty obvious Pirate sold, and it's almost certain he's now "short".
The timing of the sell was good, however, the execution was excessively flashy. Why cause a downspike to 7.5, down to which we already have 25k BTC liquidity again? Sentiment is nowhere near a panic. I don't have an explanation why he should do this, regardless of legitimacy.
Then again, market movements around Pirate rarely make sense to me. No big news in the end.
The timing of the sell was good, however, the execution was excessively flashy. Why cause a downspike to 7.5, down to which we already have 25k BTC liquidity again? Sentiment is nowhere near a panic. I don't have an explanation why he should do this, regardless of legitimacy.
Then again, market movements around Pirate rarely make sense to me. No big news in the end.
he sure said it was him:
well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!
Bid wall has disappeared
I'm going through the #bitcoin chatlog from yesterday.
Quote
04:31 i take full responsibility.
04:39 crashed is != corrected.
04:42 we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.
04:39
04:42
There's a lot more. But it's a long and chaotic story, wherein the pirate causes a storm in the market.
He makes it quite clear through word and action that he alone was behind yesterday's crazyness.
This was not natural, and had nothing to do with KimDotCom.
Protip:
Quote
[2012-07-17 05:13:52] I'm just going to say this time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.
he never claimed to make money trading, he claimed to use the coins to stabilize the markets so he can sell at a set price. clearly is was showing what could happen if the price was not stable.
If you want to sell and the price has risen, you are happy to sell at the higher price and don't want any stabilization. In fact, your selling would help to stabilize the market price.
If the price has gone down, then what? You first buy to raise the market price, then you sell more than you bought, and that should make you more money?
Great trick! Have you ever tried it? Or what exactly did you mean?
the horse only dabbles in trading apparently
but with whose coins though?
but with whose coins though?
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....
It's probably him, buying coins for a payout. 
he sure said it was him:
Bid wall has disappeared
it's easy to get the impression that this is where he makes all the profits. but I looked into it a little and I don't think you can make enough by gaming the markets - even with his amount of coins. at least not on a regular basis. Also there was very little volatility for a long time.
Good news everyone! Pirate has 40k more BTC to launder!
Can someone please explain this to me? Where does that number come from?
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....
It's probably him, buying coins for a payout.
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.
You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?
With the possibility of P using GPUMax as a customer to launder BS&T coins to take off with this boils down to the question of how much hashpower there is on GPUMax / how much coins go through GPUMax.
Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
Yes, and just like how anybody could potentially use GPUmax to launder coins, so can Pirate. Remember, GPUmax is profitable, but it cannot sustain BS&T alone.Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
As for finding out how much Pirate has personally laundered, that's impossible. He could easily correlate any BS&T deposit with his own laundering, making it appear as if the deposit was actually a GPUmax purchase from the outside.
thanks for explaining.
I asked some of the big pool operators for their opinion of the gpumax hashrate. only two have responded so far but it seems to be around 1000-3000gh.
edit: probably towards the lower end of that range
There are a total of about 50 * 6 * 24 = 7,200 BTC made per day.
If GPUMAX was leasing 24/7 and
If GPUMAX got every coin made and
If you have say 100,000 coins to launder then
100,000 / 7,200 = 14 days
But GPUMAX does not lease shares 24/7 (not even close) and
GPUMAX does not get all the coins every day (not even close).
For example, if we assume GPUMAX represents 10% of the network 10% of the time (for an average of 72 coints per day) then it would take 1,400 days.
My point is that as a laundry, GPUMAX is too slow.
If GPUMAX was leasing 24/7 and
If GPUMAX got every coin made and
If you have say 100,000 coins to launder then
100,000 / 7,200 = 14 days
But GPUMAX does not lease shares 24/7 (not even close) and
GPUMAX does not get all the coins every day (not even close).
For example, if we assume GPUMAX represents 10% of the network 10% of the time (for an average of 72 coints per day) then it would take 1,400 days.
My point is that as a laundry, GPUMAX is too slow.
Well, some are estimating he's got 300k. I'd say the GPUMAX estimates are low, so let's go 25% of the network, 25% of the time. So 450 clean coins a day.
300,000 / 450 = 666 days.
It must be a sign.
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.
You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?
With the possibility of P using GPUMax as a customer to launder BS&T coins to take off with this boils down to the question of how much hashpower there is on GPUMax / how much coins go through GPUMax.
Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
Yes, and just like how anybody could potentially use GPUmax to launder coins, so can Pirate. Remember, GPUmax is profitable, but it cannot sustain BS&T alone.Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
As for finding out how much Pirate has personally laundered, that's impossible. He could easily correlate any BS&T deposit with his own laundering, making it appear as if the deposit was actually a GPUmax purchase from the outside.
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