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Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 28. (Read 73388 times)

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...

That's true. Grin I offered to split though, and nobody cared.

But native languages, drinks and ways to wipe your ass is a level up from that. And now it's become a meta-discussion... lol I can't fight this.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
What are we even talking about by now? Huh

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. Undecided And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.

You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
What are we even talking about by now? Huh

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. Undecided And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
rjk: actually I didn't think about you, the post just came in while I was typing mine. You... just post a lot, that's not the same as flooding at all. The problem is when the discussion loses structure, and it's more of an output war.

reeses... I dunno man. I was talking to Pirate or allies of his, about the saturation curve of deposits. You're interpreting strange things into my posts. Yes, I have the intention that if I turn out wrong, I will admit it and apologize. It must become clear soon enough; if it is a Ponzi, it probably won't saturate for long, won't shutdown orderly and finally, won't shrink much and won't run forever. If you just had some patience you could laugh at me after the fact -- in whatever future you are imagining.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. Tongue

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. Cool

Pirate never promised us any love, just 7%. Let him hate on us.
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. Tongue
Funny that you mentioned that the "thread flooding crew" had just arrived after my single post. I'll have you know that I am an army of one, and I bring along no sockpuppets to support my positions.

I'm not even going to tell you to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane. In one case, I get the funky show for a while longer.

It might be a problem though that your users don't know you hate them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's your problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. Cool

Great!... except I think you have said that before and promptly forgotten about it. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

A bit late, but still worthy:

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. Tongue

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. Cool
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.
I am sorry, let me correct it to
"a row of insults aimed at the other side in a discussion"
Where else do you normally aim an insult? Huh
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.
I am sorry, let me correct it to
"a row of insults aimed at the other side in a discussion"
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.
I doubt it being sarcasm improves the quality of a row of random insults.

I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
I suggest spending some time reading T.S. Eliot, Hunter S. Thompson, James Joyce, and Thomas Pynchon to start, especially their letters.  Reading literature will enrich your life and increase the scope of your thoughts and discourse.
Tautologic statement which i dont interpret as intended help but rather as an attempt to imply you are on higher ground. It might be true that english is not my first language, however if your "being better in english" leads to a point where posts consist mainly of insults, i humbly decline (sarcasm or not).

And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.
I doubt it being sarcasm improves the quality of a row of random insults.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.

I've always wanted to use that in conversation, and I couldn't imagine a more deserving target.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
I was also mocking your continued avoidance of "difficult" questions.  As for the Hecate's (seriously?) comment, I suspect English isn't your first language and that you are not well-read in that language.  I raided so many better authors for those nuggets, admittedly from memory so I may be off a wee bit, that the subtext of classic, calm, contempt may have gone over some readers' heads, as V- appears to have missed any of the references as well.

I suggest spending some time reading T.S. Eliot, Hunter S. Thompson, James Joyce, and Thomas Pynchon to start, especially their letters.  Reading literature will enrich your life and increase the scope of your thoughts and discourse.

And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.

If I avoided a question, just re-state it clearly. I have difficulty telling which part of your post is addressing whom, and I'm not so sure this is a language skill problem. Whatever this is trying to show, it's derailing the thread.

Nobody claimed to be versed in English literature. It is not my first language, in case you care. But this is completely beside the point here. Huh Insults do not get an upgrade because they're chained and get references added.

Whatever I'm missing here, how is it possibly relevant? Just stop the flood contribution already.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
So, you're not going to apologize for being a *********, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you ********* *********.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you ********* *********, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as ********* that has ********* your ********* *********

*********.

Congratulations, you win a prize for the best and most convincing argument given so far. This clearly shows that the group in favor of pirateat40 is consisting purely of highly intellectual individuals with very high standards who know exactly what they are doing and the risks involved.

He was actually just making fun of me complaining about content-free personal insults.

But yea, it doesn't get much better if you add an "implicit sarcasm" tag to it. Just the good old flooding attack when a post is a hassle to deal with. And it's not even funny.
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
So, you're not going to apologize for being a *********, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you ********* *********.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you ********* *********, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as ********* that has ********* your ********* *********

*********.

Congratulations, you win a prize for the best and most convincing argument given so far. This clearly shows that the group in favor of pirateat40 is consisting purely of highly intellectual individuals with very high standards who know exactly what they are doing and the risks involved.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Poopoo-head liar liar, pants on fire!

Edited for a younger audience.

Edited for an even younger audience.

Is your avatar a light sculpture of Donald Trump's hair?

No. Close though. It's part of a series of CAD drawings engineers followed to create the scaffolding used to construct his hair.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
So, you're not going to apologize for being disagreeable, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you developmentally delayed donkey-clown.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you insipid ovary, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as the spirochete that has rotted your excuse for a brain?

Donkey hole.

Edited for a younger audience.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

Yes, Nothing is 100% (other than death). Very much plus one.

We can only play the odds and the cards given us.

Yup. True words. If I say "certain" in real life, I mean something like .999. In the remaining cases, I'll just have to suck it up. (Well, there is one exception; mathematics includes concepts with real certainty. You lose that when applying them though.)

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? Smiley It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
Pirate is a genius.

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k
2. The bet takes and pirate doesn't default: van loses 5k
3. The bet doesn't take and van goes long: he makes over 8k
4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he is even

Worse!

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k and Pirateat40 gets Van to shut up, plus the show improves visibility, if he is lucky the PR even makes the bet a profit even though he loses.

4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he can shout "That loser does not put his money where his mouth is, give me more loans!"

Pirateat40 had little to lose in this. Offering was about neutral-win-win, there was no real bad outcome possible.


It's been going strong for almost a year.  You can figure a few benchmarks in terms of timing that would indicate increased levels of maintenance and visibility, which we can roughly correlate to investment activity.

  • Manual loans to get up and running at scale, no external communication of balance other than ad hoc email exchanges or IRC queries
  • Crappy website that basically showed "current balance, expected balance" with x%/day compounded q3d
  • New crappy website
  • Payment restructuring to pay tiered rates weekly
  • Announced payment restructuring for 'trust' and other accounts

People other than I can dig and put dates to these.  I didn't stir in GPUMax for obvious reasons.

I will say that I have a good idea of the total balance through the first few stages.  At least, I know a handful people who have larger loans than I do and roughly what they're holding.  All were early (comparatively) lenders.

This is why I am very comfortable asserting that you are wrong.  You made accusations based on assumptions that you are now discovering may be in error.  Unfortunately, you only came to realize this after you put your money on the table.

When you lose, and you will lose, I hope you are capable of manning up and making amends for being not only a douche, but the bag it came in.

This is very valuable intel, and I thank you for it. Though I don't understand how it reduce my chances in the bet, looks like a classical Ponzi inception to me. Now I know its status is more advanced than I assumed, reducing the possibilities for tricks against me.

But what is it with that last sentence? What does "douchebag" mean anyway? That I'm mistaken? Paid by the government to annoy the great pirate? Can we please pretend we're civilized and use wording that has a meaning beside "Come at me sucker, do the Neanderthal!"

I can live with "jealous". It's still nonsense, but has a remotely sensible model of what I might be thinking. "Douchebag"... I just can't make sense of it other than you being emotionally compromised. The same goes for "son of a bitch", "sucker", "SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK VANDROIY" and whatnot. I can take an insult, but place content into it. "Mental" was also acceptable, it's actually a good hook to act funny.



Anyway, back to topic. If we're past one year, an orderly pay-out is unlikely. A single account starting at 2k would be at >66k by now, an amount BS&T is unlikely to ever pay out. This is good news to me, however it makes the default timing extremely random, since it depends strongly on withdrawal timings of less than 10 people. In addition, these people were not chosen as they are normally in finance.

What I mean by that: people who joined early did not need as many funds to be important now. They are more likely to neglect trading rules that strongly encourage diversification. They might be keeping five-digit BTC accounts with BS&T even though they do not have five-digit BTC wallets. This is usually a grave mistake. For an example of the mathematical problem, see the Kelly Criterion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion



TL;DR: I think the data works in my favor. If you insult me personally, please use a specific accusation like "slander", "jealous" or "mental".
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