The only way Roger can "lose" in this chain split swap is if BU forks with too
low hash power.
(Roger must be
sure that BU will not activate before "hash power is high enough", and will not be "activated" by rogue actors with ill intent)
To illustrate, if a chain split occurred with BU having 99% hash power support at activation, Core 1%, there is no conceivable way Roger can "lose".
A 1% chain is insecure and untrustworthy, right, that is how Bitcoin works?
Now, a 99% / 1% split is "unrealistic" IRL for any consensus mechanism, so Roger may well assess hash % with achievability IRL, and decide 80% hash power supporting BU is both achievable and workable consensus. (and in a fight, 80% hash power should beat 20% hash power, no?)
If BU never achieve 80% and therefore never activate, no split will occur, bet is void.
I guess loaded wants to test if ver puts the money where is mouth is
verry simple notting more notthing less.
Yes maybe, but is now putting in "no further development" opt out clauses?
BU as it exists today
Is Loaded now saying BU must launch "as it exists today" seemingly because "today SegWit + LN appears to be ready to go".
Shouldn't it be "BU must split the chain before segwit adoption" as "SegWit + LN appears to be ready to go"?
That is fair consensus timescale. I thought this bet was about
whenever BU split the chain, Core btc would still be more valuable?
All bitcoiners have to trust the miners to not activate dodgy code, weather that be BU or Segwit.