Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 91. (Read 387491 times)

I think most of your post is nonsense (for example removing mining dust is not only trivial but mathematically provable as trivial) but I agree with this part and I think BBR is a reasonable "second cryptonote" to hold as a hedge.

BBR's innovations and changes, while untested by time and success, are more than cosmetic.  Removing dust and the resulting bloat is a big step.  Aliases are nice to have available.  Two minute blocks may be a better choice than one minute.  Wild Keccak may prove more ASIC resistant than Cryptonight.  BBR was first with a GUI wallet as well.

BBR's tiny dev team is naturally more nimble and able to quickly implement changes than the larger XMR camp.  But the fate of both are tied to the success or failure of CryptoNote.  We can agree to disagree about which one is best, and still have common ground by regarding them as the top two CN implementations.

There isn't a natural monopoly in cryptocoins because the barriers to entry are trivial.  Most of the time 80/20 Pareto distribution will hold, but when the dominant coin experiences technical/political/economic difficulties like a blockchain fork/Chinese ban/Federal auction, the 2nd Place coin comes to the fore. 

Because we know such Black Swans are inevitable, hloding 'PepsiCoins' like LTC and BBR is a much more rational action than buying lottery tickets that will most likely expire worthless.

QFT. Beautiful.

I think there are a few too many Monero threads myself.  I expect any excess threads will scroll off the front page quickly, however.  It's a problem with the seeds of its own solution.


If I just burn flow money I can do about 250 XMR/diem on a sustained basis.  If I do well on the markets, I can do more.  But the first would be imprudent, and the second is somewhat unpredictable.

Mine vary with the technique.  

Analysing fundamentals seems to do well when you can get appropriate data, but it is slow to play out, typically.

Some technical aspects are informative, but most are not, as far as I can tell.  All anybody should be looking for there is a slight edge.


That's fair.  It's all factual, however.  

I certainly don't mind gaining face in the XMR or BTC communities.  It doesn't mean a lot to me, and anything I do will be oriented towards building the coin.  One way is to be encouraging to weak holders.  Strengthen their hands.  That requires credibility.  I fail a bit out of whimsy, on the point.  But hey, I play here to blow of steam.  


Here we have substantive disagreement.  You've done nothing substantive to change my view on this point.  I invite you to do so, please, if you think I'm wrong.


It's Seattle Slew amongst glue-factory nags.


They will soon, I expect.  How soon is hard to judge.


That is the nature of forward looking statements.


Strength of conviction, endurance.  It wins wars.  (They give amphetamines to fighter pilots.  Gin is called "dutch courage".)   "Jihad" is first and foremost the struggle against oneself, I am told.  Rational action is often achieved by a tremendous force of will, overcoming emotional impulses.


I can assure you that I will.  Hopefully with a more effective argument strategy than the one you suggest.  What has worked for me so far is talking about the enormous asymmetry and effective leverage of the return profile and the lack of correlation to other assets.  Well capitalized investors who have acted on my suggestion have primarily done so, with rare exceptions, because it is a cheap hedge for certain categories of extreme tail risk which are otherwise difficult to hedge.  


With a 32x marketcap difference, BBR isn't on my radar, and I don't think it should be on anyone's radar, if they need any liquidity.  Punters who want to play with nickels and dimes have a different set of interests.  It's just not relevant to mine.  32x means they just aren't in the same ballpark.  
 
That 100BTC BBR buy a week or two ago is down almost 50% now.  I'd be more inclined to warn against BBR investment, to friends and family, than to remind them of it.  A liquidity provider should, first and foremost, provide liquidity.  XMR is barely acceptable for tiny positions today on that basis.  But an accumulation of tiny positions will bring it up the ranks.  BBR can't support anything but a lottery ticket at this point.

BTC is the big leagues of crypto.  XMR isn't anywhere near it.  But I am convinced that it can be, and in light of currently available information likely will be in time - barring some dramatic new development, which is not all that unlikely, but can't really be predicted (by me) very well.  BBR, not so much.

Thank you for the lively exchange.

Wow, this thread is a wealth of information. If haven't been following maybe would have missed that.

Maybe most interesting coin of 2014. Can't wait to see how it rolls out.

IMO it's great to have a "lite" version of XMR.

Generates a little competition and more buzz for CN.

If you're put off, just hedge 1-2% of your XMR to BBR and maybe even other top CN coins. That's what I did.

Not remotely possible IMO.

People have suggested that zoidberg joining Monero would make a "dream team" but the Monero team and zoidberg are not on the same page, development wise or philosophically. They do not see eye to eye on the same issues. 

I know this is not probably possible but in the world of my dreams CZ would unite with Monero team and Monero will overcome Bitcoin...

This thread was created because because Monero was already getting enough speculative interest to attract rpietila's attention. Look at the graph on the old OTC thread. There was a day in mid-May when 50K XMR traded at a price of about 0.001. That's 50 BTC which is a huge amount for a coin not even trading on any major exchange at all! On May 20 (6 days before this thread), it traded over 100K XMR.

So yes that early period played a huge role.

I don't really care about the back-and-forth you have with people that think XMR is awesome, that's your prerogative. But there are a few things you've stumbled over where you reply to aminorex (not a member of the core team) about stuff that the core team organises. So I felt it prudent to respond.


Regardless of how eccentric anyone is, the core team did not decide on these things for the sake of eccentricity.

The Monero Missive is meant to be a platform to provide an overview of the week, as well as as a way to announce things so that they don't get lost in the main ANN thread. I'm quite unsure as to how a little alliteration can give you the "heebie jeebies". If you're that sensitive I fear the Internet is the wrong playground for you.

Coupled with the Monero Missive is the weekly Dev Diary (oh dear, more alliteration, however will you cope). Whilst the content of the Missive is more easily digestible, the Dev Diary goes into greater technical detail for those efforts.

The #Monero-Dev Fireside Chats are irregular events aimed at, you guessed it, developers. Yes, we used the first one to show off the new GUI, but the bulk of it focused on developer-centric discussions of ongoing efforts. You are not really our target audience for that unless you're a contributor or you're building services around Monero, so feel free to completely disregard them.


I've spotted this mentioned too, and I can tell you that I honestly have no cooking clue what they're talking about. We don't play our cards that close to our chest, everything is pretty out there and in the open. Some of the stuff is mostly discussed on IRC and on github issues, sure, but our current work is no secret.

There are definitely other aspects of your post I don't disagree with, but I, for one, would appreciate you not leveraging criticism meant for the core team at someone else who is not responsible for the Missives or Fireside Chats.

I accidentally saw a video posted recently in litecoin reddit. They are still talking about Litecoin targeting the silver of Bitcoin gold just because Bitcoin is going to be too much expensive for daily transactions. LMAO. Just this alone can indicate about their "unlimited" progress...

Crosspost from speculation thread:

long-ass wall of text coming..


The point I was addressing was the fact that Boolberry users are apparently members of a cult, cults push their agendas & ideologies. Out of both, who is really pushing on this forum?

quick search for XMR..  ignoring XMR vs ..xxx,and pool advertising threads


I'm all for topical threads but there's a point when it becomes OTT. That's page 1 of 10. Do we really need 2 speculation threads, 2 economics threads, 2 community FAQ threads, 2 community hall of fames..majority of things like 'support' and FAQ should be answered in the OP of the main thread to avoid clutter. This thread itself is dominated largely by discussion about XMR too.


Do you know who else organized fireside chats? satanistic bonfire cults! (ok that was a joke) but 'monero missives' - both of them give me the heebie jeebies just hearing it. I feel like I'm in Jonestown here.  I don't want to warm my toes and roast marshmallows and I don't want to read captains logs. Just a plain ol' monero chat and weekly report is fine with me. Little less eccentric, doesn't sound quite as exclusive though. You probably don't understand because you are an eccentric man yourself along with large amount of OP's followers, also especially interested with ascending to the top with a smaller circle, that's why you spend so much time flirting with OP.  That much can be gleaned just from the way you type.  The average crypto speculator doesn't even know what a missive is. It's a turn-off to some. Not that you care at this point since the longer it stays underground the more chance you got to buy up all the sweet xmr you can possibly hold, and you believe it's inevitable it will surface obviously

 "I am to be marginalized"  "you are on team FUD"  I'm what now? According to OP's distribution model last I checked was in top 20, top 10 almost of XMR holders. Honestly not sure where he conjured the numbers from or how accurate that is, but I can assure you I couldn't give less of a shit about buying in lower nor increasing xmr stash. I made a relatively small buy and will pretty much just let that sit for a year minimum. No plans no to sell barring a real unplanned emergency, frankly it could go to 0 and I probably would be too lazy to sell, (same goes for BBR). Likewise no plans to buy more barring some earth-shattering update. According to OP's revised statements, he knows this coin will go 1000x in fiat terms- although not sure in what timeframe. So that's good I guess. I can chill out for a bit then buy a fleet of gulfstreams.. - as long as that's in the next 40 years or so that would be nice. Judging by how much effort you put into evangelizing this you surely should have poured more BTC in than me. So what will you be able to buy?  


My views on trying to apply Tea leaf analysis to an emerging altcoin is probably summed up by the way I described it, so will leave it there. It's not cult-like it's just a somewhat self-fullfilling prophecy once you have one guy with a good knack at noticing patterns, and a bunch of people that will circle-jerk over support lines, trend indicators and follow the postings. People eat it up because TA is something you only see in big-boy markets, and we all want to feel like big boys here.


Actually the news, that can't be revealed yet but is big enough to warrant buying is pretty much verbatim from what I've read.

And What you talk about with wining and dining hedge fund managers & SVP's from Two sigma -- tipping them off about diversifying into a cryptonote fork listed on poloniex, bittrex is nothing more than sexed up pumping. You even though yeah why not add a couple of fintech epicentres, london and shanghai into the mix for dramatic effect. Just needs a few buzzwords.  There's absolutely no reason to have posted what you posted unless you wanted to affect sentiment, or perhaps it was just an excuse to make yourself sound good. I'd wager a bit of both -- the fact is if you posted that in dogecoin thread you would get laughed out and labelled a cheap pumper. If you didn't say write it in such an eloquent way amongst a home crowd you would have also been dismissed as a dreamer.  
.


woah, calm down there. You seem like I've insulted your religion or something. I'm not an enemy of the truth of a warrior of the dark or whatnot, XMR is simply not the only coin with a leadership position for the largest market opportunity in history. Also this is a blatant exagerration. As as been said before in this thread, it's one horse against many. BTC is perfectly fine for the ones who are actually aware of it, they don't even have a concern for more privacy. Overwhelming portion of the world has never touched BTC.  Plenty will be happy to use intermediate but 'perfectly good enough' anon coins like darkcoin, BTC has been battle tested, as far as I know even origin of curve params used in monero is not clear, Primary provider of global instant liquidity, getting a little ahead of yourself there.


If you say so.


.

What's irrational? well maybe the part about when you get depressed about a decline you'll resort to a meth binge washed down with southern comfort and just keep on buying up past the point of despair. Don't they have a name for that. irrational exuberance or something, gambling addiction?


Very true, maybe you can try convincing that propdesk trader to buy into your same alpha-level, command-line based cryptonote fork. What's a ring signature he'll ask?  'it says it's not compatible with my version of windows' 'It's trying to download a 2gb file to my hard disk' he'll complain.

Go and read our missives and join our fireside chat on i2p you'll say presumably? our lead devs 'tacotime' and 'fluffypony' will walk you through the process. And he'll shake your hand and say, gee..thanks aminorex, Sounds legit. You saved my career.. Behave yourself

hey, maybe he'll come back a little later and say he heard about BBR and how XMR is the same thing just orders of magnitude more expensive, and ask why is this exactly? and you'll explain it was launched a month later and the name wasn't as good.


I don't disagree. I don't for a second think this is a scamcoin, nor do I think because a rise is somewhat artificially accelerated that a dump and stagnation, then gradual decline towards 0 is precipitated. I'm simply sick of hearing too much XMR and not enough BBR. As I wrote before I think BBR is a more likely candidate for a 2x,3x, 5x rise, therefore I see it as disingenuous to promote XMR and not mention BBR.



don't find facts, logic and humor to be offensive. just think let's keep some feet on the ground.  Sometimes less is more. You don't need to be rambling about getting paid in XMR any-time soon

Darkota, do you actually *read* any of the replies to your posts?  Please scroll back and see my (numerous) responses to this absolute crap you keep trying to spread.  If you have a substantive reply to them, you have yet to have posted it beyond ignoring reality.  Now you're up to 90% of the coins being mined by Christian?  Within a month, it'll be 110%!

XMR and BBR had very similar degrees of private-miner-advantaged mining.  I'm utterly certain of this, unless I'm mis-counting the zeros in my bank account from the fun-filled XMR days.

And it doesn't matter at all.  The advantaged miners are mostly out of the game, and both coins are almost entirely in the hands of the investors at this point.  We made a lot of money - thanks for that.  If XMR or BBR goes moonwardly, then the investors stand to make more;  the miner types were mostly in it for the short-term profit.

waves with large wavelengths......................ok...  

I'm talking about waves with large wavelengths

I argue that among enthusiast miners there are much more that GPU mine than CPU mine, simply because of fact that most other algos are mined by GPUs. I agree that CPU mining has larger potential, but not without marketing of mining, and i do not see that for XMR. About profitability of GPU mining XMR, sure - because XMR stands at 12x larger price than BBR, but exactly because that i feel that in the next episode BBR price might increase more than XMR. We will see

The leadership is clearly overwhelmingly in XMR at the moment  - by a market cap factor > 32x.  You consider the emission schedule of BBR to offer some competitive advantage during the phase prior to development of an organic economy.  I would like to understand that better.  It will have to be an overwhelming advantage indeed to surmount a factor of more that 32x.


Your argument seems to be that buyers will be few, so GPU miners are needed to increase dispersion.  I question whether GPU mining promotes dispersion more than CPU mining.  In fact I think the opposite is likely true.  Moreover, GPU mining has generally been more profitable in XMR than in BBR.  I think these points refute your argument.  Please correct my error.


That is precisely why XMR offers such an advantage to investors at this time.  The vision to see the likely end-game is sparsely distributed.  I work to distribute that vision more widely.

That also makes no sense.

XMR was released when Bitcoin started to pick up in the price in April, after the MT.Gox failure. It was released during a Bitcoin Uptrend, not downtrend...

That also makes no sense. You base your outlook of a coin, on the amount of shilling you see. If everyone did that, then no one would even touch Bitcoin, as you can see there's a endless amount of shilling over it..

Army of GPU miners to support it in the near future? What? XMR already has GPU mining, and unlike boolberry there wasnt a private gpu miner owned by One person. getting 90% of the coins per day.