Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 199. (Read 907212 times)

Yes, that is a very good way of putting it. Ideally what we need is for each person to learn how to "program their own consciousness", or at least more programs to choose from.

The days of your mental operating system (culture, basically) being determined by where you happen to be born and what power elites happen to be in place during that time are over. At least they can be. Now we have the choice of individual personal responsibility in matters of culture and belief systems as provided by accessible distributed information networks and progressively more accessible means of travel. We should use this privilege. And with Bitcoin we finally can put the money where our mouth is and be free not only to believe what we wish, but also to implement it.

If we curtail the current state of economic affairs and financial practices, how are we to become the galactic virus the human species is destined to be...that is our destiny, TV tells me so.

Maybe bitcoin riches manifest into greater academic awareness  - basic personal finance, math and economics courses should be mandatory etc.  Presentation of the virtues of e-learning as practical and refined.

"The masses" learn by brainwashing.  Left unfettered they will seek it.  The louder message that seems to garner more powerful support wins for the most part.  So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?   

The inflationary monetary system has a built-in imperative for infinite growth - a requirement which seems preposterous on the face of it, because the system is located on a planet with clearly finite resources. I say change is clearly needed here.



"The masses" (which seems to be this vaguely defined group with negative connotations into which scarcely anybody would put themselves) indeed often exhibit unintelligent behavior. I like to think that this is not because of some inherent stupidity of "the masses" but because of "the masses" simply act out incentives provided by the environment. Our current system favors instant consumption over deferred consumption (saving) by its inflationary nature as has been noted by SlipperySlope. The nice thing about Bitcoin is that it provides different sets of incentives which are in my opinion much closer to what is needed (a sustainable economy vs. this infinite growth oriented madness). If the value of their currency keeps generally increasing instead of decreasing (as is the case today), "the masses" will most likely spend more prudently and consider their spending more wisely - no great inherent intelligence needed.


Yes, indeed. That is why I support the peaceful growth of decentralized alternatives and not a violently enforced centralized revolution It simply takes time for the "wisdom of the crowds" to arrive at optimal configurations for complex systems - but once they do, they are so much more efficient and enjoyable than their centrally enforced alternatives.

These potential cultural changes are still far into the future I reckon but I look forward to seeing them unfold!

A change that drastic needs time. Bitcoin will give us the opportunity to drastically change our course, if the people are smart enough to want it and do it. I am actually worried about the masses not being smart enough to understand the situation we are currently in.

Either way, if bitcoin does catch on and does not dilute into another 'bitcoin backed' system like the gold repeatedly does (by slowly but surely moving away from gold into pure fiat) it could make us more aware of our spending behavior and our economy destroying our future.

They keep saying deflation or even stagnation is bad, but i'd say inflation is worse because inflation can only sustain itself if the economy itself also inflates at the same pace, and even than it'd lead to problems for individuals. The problem with an inflationary economy is that the world will run out of resources at an exponential rate as well and we're already overproducing and exhausting the planets resources. We wouldn't even have enough resources if we had 3 planets the size of earth to mine from.

This point can't be stressed enough.

I am quite firmly convinced that the (failing) global financial/governmental system can't and will not be improved upon unless there are major changes in the underlying cultural narratives which support said systems. We can try to elect the "right people" as much as we want to but providing systemic incentives encouraging prudent spending (spending means consuming resources!) has a much better chance at effecting positive change. This is one of my favorite things about Bitcoin and a point which the "let's regulate it and integrate it into the current system"-crowd seem to be overlooking.

Huobi is penetrating the resistance trendline drawn from the November 2013 peak with good volume. I would like this to continue into next week - going sideways is enough.

The number of transactions excluding popular (gambling dust) addresses chart continues to rally. This could be a confirmation that the bottom of the November 2013 bubble collapse is behind us. The last few months of this data series may now be impacted by the purported increasing portion of economic bitcoin transactions that are occurring off the blockchain, e.g. as immediate exchanges of value between Coinbase accounts.

I don't want to say you're wrong and I certainly don't think you're trolling, but I still think it's rather unlikely we will see sub-400 prices again. But if we see sub-400 prices they will definitly no last long and like you said, by the end of May we will most likely be at least 500 and probably even 600+

in the very near future it shall break it just by going sideways (like it just did for the last month). and then rally

The sideways sort of rally on Huobi is about to touch the resistance trendline drawn from the November peak. Every other time this year the price could not convincingly penetrate that trendline. Note also the declining volume.

Is this time different?

Log chart at 3 day resolution . . .

Which trendline?  Today's?  Or the trendline that existed at the time?

If the price hits 100k on 1/1/15, that would change the trendline and so it wouldn't be as far above that trend as it would be above today's.

Extremely interesting links! However, the charts illustrate very clearly why one should not use linear plots for exponential growth, but log-plots instead

Wide predictions are indicative of that the predictor is not sure either. So this exactly is the reason why I cannot say anything conclusive even if it is only 7.5 months away!

When you speculate you shouldn't call someone with different opinion/analyses a troll.

That's very destructive behavior for sure.

When it comes to price, such wide predictions are too radical for me. I don't believe we can be that sure about future price changes.

possible just very very improbable.  
If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015.
$100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area.
So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.

Didn't realise that it rose x200 in one year. Thought last year's one hundredfold rise was the biggest to date. Must have a closer look at bitcoin's history.

Of course. It would not even be the first time: Less than 4 years ago Bitcoin price went up 200x (20,000%) in 7.6 months. (emphasis added to quote)

You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?

Guys, I do not want to count the chickens before they are hatched, but this starts looking good.

Volume is going up, and resistance at 450 will probably soon be overcome.
The very foundations for the much anticipated summer rally are laid now. I therefore highly doubt a scenario where bitcoin drops into the 300-350 zone. It gets more and more
unlikely by the minute.

Instead I call 500$ by next week.

Thanks!  


It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.