Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 203. (Read 907229 times)

Tera, would another hypothetical peak by the end of the year (let's assume 4,000) change your EW-analysis? IMO both could happen, your chart is as possible as yet another peak by the end of the year. I'd be fine with both, because both would bring me some severe gains and even the "bearish" hypothesis of bitcoin peaking at 20,000 would bring bitcoin to the brink of mass adoption. Most capital of the "investment hodlers" would be out by then, affirming the theory that price must go down afterwards, but that will be the point, where mass adoption could make up for that.

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

When I look at bitcoin's long term chart, I see an elliot wave. Wave 1 went to $32. Wave 3 went to $1100. Wave 5 may go to $20,000 (briefly before it crashes into wave a). I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.

What would your estimate be?  

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion

current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap

Now we are talking 30 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.

This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.

Firstly, I don't think it will ever go anywhere even remotely close to that, but even if it does, I'll be out a LONG time before that

I have my BoA account linked to Coinbase and for the most part, transactions go through. When I started out, I only did small transactions that went through without a problem. I did have several (still small) bitcoin purchases that were reversed when it came time for the transaction to clear a week or so after initiation, with no explanation other than "suspicious transaction." I sent an email pointing out that the price of bitcoin had risen during that week and it sure looked suspicious to me that they would allow one of my former purchases when the price remained stable, but then cancel this one when the price had risen. I wasn't nasty in the email, and I don't think that's what they were actually doing (then again, who knows?). They pretty quickly reversed the reversal and allowed the transaction to go through. That happened maybe 3 or 4 times last summer but since then I've had no problem.

Keep in mind that anything more than $10k per day is the magic cutoff that means you might be a drug dealer. For coinbase, I generally stay below that limit. 

Was it a big 5 bank?  I know that BofA in particular pretty much cancels any bitcoin transaction that they notice.

Was it a big 5 bank?  I know that BofA in particular pretty much cancels any bitcoin transaction that they notice.

Was it a big 5 bank?  I know that BofA in particular pretty much cancels any bitcoin transaction that they notice.

Unclear.  Money never showed up.  Coinbase was unable/unwilling to speak to non-merchant clients on the phone.  Email was queued unanswered for a week before I finally called the merchant support number, got an overworked harried and apologetic gentleman who said the transfer would be cancelled.  By then it had lost much of its value, so I didn't try selling any more, started accumulating again.

What was the nature of the failure?  Did your bank refuse the transaction?  If so, was it a big 5 bank (Wells, Chase, BofA, Citi, etc.) or a local bank, credit union, etc.? 

omm nomm nommmm

You really think that BTC can increase x 10,000 times from here?

Assets can be classified in many ways but I would try:

- land/RE
- PMs
- businesses (that you run)
- paper investments (cash, stocks, bonds, funds, all that is correlated to fiat liquidity)
- cryptos.

I know many people that, due to mortgage, are more than 100% (in fact, often 1000% or even negative % because of negative net worth) invested in RE. No doubt RE is a good investment but not so good that you should take insane leverage. The long-term return is more like 2-5% depending on many things.

Lots of people don't have anything else but paper investments, in other words they haven't diversified at all and are 100% at the mercy of the liquidity masters. When liquidity was withdrawn from the market in late 2008, all these tanked 50-100%. They are very risky, and there is comparatively little upside.

With PM's and cryptos you cannot fail so badly as the risk of going to zero is rather small, and sane people realize that they don't need leverage because the upside is very good anyway if they hit big. Now, gold's upside is maximum 10x from now, silver's 100x and (to keep the similar probability) bitcoin's is 10,000x.

There is a claim that high volatility equals high risk, but that is fallacious. Bitcoin's volatility is so high that for every 2-year period you have always netted at least 200%. There is no security in the history of capital markets that has always shown a positive 2-year return. Therefore all the other assets have historically been of higher risk than Bitcoin (and not only lower return).

=> The upside with Bitcoin is so great and the risks so small that the only reasons to own anything at all besides them are:

* if you need the other thing
* for hedging against Bitcoin's catastrophic failure
* for short-term capital needs (because of Bitcoin's volatility).