Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 208. (Read 907229 times)
I think it would be beautiful if the chart were to end up looking like this: Perfect
Good that you have been successful with traditional TA methods. What a pity that you cannot communicate it to the others so that they can replicate your success, whereas I can easily communicate what I do, and why.
Just wanted to make an example and codify the green/red candles method that I suggest in the "quick TA" update that I publish:
1. Trader position is always NEUTRAL or SHORT (this is due to the fact that borrowing BTC is much cheaper than borrowing $, and we assume that he hedges the position with cold storage coins anyway resulting in net long). For play without margin, replace with LONG and NEUTRAL.
2. Trading is according to short trend. Short trend is either NEUTRAL or SHORT and once it changes, the position must be changed accordingly and without delay.
3. The trend change data is derived from Bitstamp 6H chart/data. A trend change happens if all of the following hold true:
a) The volume of the latest 6H period is higher than 3 previous periods.
b) The volume is higher than BTC2000.
c) The 6H change is to the opposite direction than previous trend.
d) The 6H change is at least 0.5%.
I simulated this for the last 5 months and it returned 17% in USD terms or 163% in BTC terms. Assuming no fees, no slippage (in reality 48 trades easily cause both).
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend.
Could you elaborate with some justification? I concede in advance that bitcoin price series have been difficult to forecast, yet clear patterns appear in the history.I am also on the opinion that the exponential trendline will surprise the unbelievers yet again. It is the rubber band that shows how long the price can over- or undershoot the trend. Itself it is not a true and full representation of the trend, but works anyhow.
Good that you have been successful with traditional TA methods. What a pity that you cannot communicate it to the others so that they can replicate your success, whereas I can easily communicate what I do, and why.
It's not a lack of communication skills that prevent other people of taking TERA seriously, it is the plain fact that he/she permanently keeps repeating the same uber-bear scenario over and over again. As if bitcoin really continues to decline until October at around 200$, following the old 2012 trendline. Yeah, right. It's just plain and simple trolling, wanting to scare people into selling, and thus can't be taken seriously.
The infrastructure of bitcoin is growing in ways it never did before. The effects are not yet visible, but they will be soon.
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend.
Could you elaborate with some justification? I concede in advance that bitcoin price series have been difficult to forecast, yet clear patterns appear in the history.I am also on the opinion that the exponential trendline will surprise the unbelievers yet again. It is the rubber band that shows how long the price can over- or undershoot the trend. Itself it is not a true and full representation of the trend, but works anyhow.
Good that you have been successful with traditional TA methods. What a pity that you cannot communicate it to the others so that they can replicate your success, whereas I can easily communicate what I do, and why.
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend.
Could you elaborate with some justification? I concede in advance that bitcoin price series have been difficult to forecast, yet clear patterns appear in the history.
How many exceptions to the rules above have you found in your research?
How many of the exceptions were representative of technology adoption?
How many of those technologies were comparable in function / motivation?
How many of those similarly functioning / motivated technologies were shown to be succeeding to this magnitude and depth of proliferation?
The above are meant to address the underlying mass psychology patterns represented by TA.
bitcoin is not solely a commodity - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Gold_price_in_USD.png
bitcoin is not a company - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSFT&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
2017orso is not a fun-gi - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Fungi ...or is he?
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend.
Could you elaborate with some justification? I concede in advance that bitcoin price series have been difficult to forecast, yet clear patterns appear in the history.
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend.
Could you elaborate with some justification? I concede in advance that bitcoin price series have been difficult to forecast, yet clear patterns appear in the history.
I would draw the lines a bit more like this.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
Can you guys please stop drawing charts connecting 2014 to 2013. We are broken out of that trend into a completely different trend. It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
Repeat after me:
BITCOIN IS NOT A STOCK.
Stocks don't jump up 10× in 60 days. Bitcoin has. And it typically does it at the end of one of these wedges.
I'm ready. Make it so.
that is just too simple.
Here is the 2-year log chart of the number of transactions excluding the 100 most popular addresses from Blockchain.info. Appears like a double bottom in the past 30 days - especially if the moving average rises substantially above 60,000 transactions. The 100 most popular addresses are excluded because Satoshi Dice used non-economic dust transactions to indicate results of bets.
Repeat after me:
BITCOIN IS NOT A STOCK.
Stocks don't jump up 10× in 60 days. Bitcoin has. And it typically does it at the end of one of these wedges.
I'm ready. Make it so.
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.
- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.
just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.
I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.
OP(SLSL), sorry i did not give you personally proper credit. My apologies.
That said, on the stock market you usually don't buy stocks at the trend low, but, perhaps BTC is a different beast altogether.
Repeat after me:
BITCOIN IS NOT A STOCK.
Stocks don't jump up 10× in 60 days. Bitcoin has. And it typically does it at the end of one of these wedges.
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.
- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.
just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.
I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.
OP(SLSL), sorry i did not give you personally proper credit. My apologies.
That said, on the stock market you usually don't buy stocks at the trend low, but, perhaps BTC is a different beast altogether.
I would draw the lines a bit more like this.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
Note that the last block halving happened approx (end Nov 2012) where you started your support line which is perhaps a reasonable justification for it as opposed to Tera's line (I call it the L0 -- it essentially projects the 2012 "quiet period" out as a measure of the baseline adoption, resulting in a ~$200 price today).
Good observation. A break of the lower trendline I drew may portend a move to that level. However, the current bear market is a bit over 5 months old, similar to the 2011 decline, only shallower. IMO a rally is likely but confirmation is needed.
I would draw the lines a bit more like this.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
Note that the last block halving happened approx (end Nov 2012) where you started your support line which is perhaps a reasonable justification for it as opposed to Tera's line (I call it the L0 -- it essentially projects the 2012 "quiet period" out as a measure of the baseline adoption, resulting in a ~$200 price today).
I would draw the lines a bit more like this.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point. A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.
The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.
The 6 months resistance directive is acting now as support directive in the 1d Bitstamp linear chart:
Indeed, old resistance got already tested 3 times (click Play on the right to see updated prices) : https://www.tradingview.com/v/JVzIzw0h/
That's interesting Trolololo, so what does that tell us?
The 6 months resistance directive is acting now as support directive in the 1d Bitstamp linear chart:
Assuming, that the bitcoin price is one million USD at full adoption, here is the S-Curve from my model. Note that the previous bubbles are not detectable on the linear chart because we are far away from full adoption . . .
oooooohhhhhhhh that one i like it very much
thank you
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