Author

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 212. (Read 907212 times)

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
I've bought a lot in the last month.  Managed to catch a $400, $375 and $350.  Now I just need it to go up before summer vacation since it's our vacation money.  Wink

I love you two. I believe in bitcoin. I admire your balls and resolve. However, sometimes, I do think you have been at the crack pipe Wink

The funny thing is we are super conservative in most things.  Never gamble, don't even drink and I don't think I have ever even seen a "crack pipe" and as far as investing in anything, I am super cheap. (BitchicksHusband is not as cheap and likes nice vacations as well as "quality" over quantity)  That said, I think taking this much risk in Bitcoin would seem out of our character from an outsider's point of view.  It is just that we believe in it that much.  Part of "faith" is being certain of things you hope for.  We are actually fairly certain at this point that Bitcoin will at least have another rally, or two or three.  I think we really feel like there is little risk vs. reward here. Wink And if the worst thing that happens with buying more coin this past month is that the kids miss out on a Summer trip to Disney World, oh well.  It is hot and humid in the Summer there anyways!   Cheesy

I agree that its fairly certain that holding BTC for the long term is savvy move. The rewards will take car of themselves. The risk however I think is something you have to actively manage. I agree no holiday to Disneyland is not a bad thing, even though I'm probably more like your husband as I like a nice thing or two (I stick to the small luxuries though, nice food & drink etc). Over time I've come to see value in ensuring I don't (year again) end up in financial ruin - even if that means sacrificing a percentage of potential future returns.

I say all this with the warmest of hearts, purely from a place of concern for my fellow man (and chick). I'd hate to see that one in a million failure scenario wipe *anyone* out least of all you guys.

Who knows 10 years time we might all meet up in Risto's castle, I'll bring my bitchick and chicklets, and laugh at how I ever doubted it Wink

The only thing our investments will wipe out at this point is BitchicksHusband's early retirement plan, our trip to Disney World, and extra funds for my mission trip to India in the fall.  We haven't mortgaged the house or anything really crazy.  Wink  Pretty much life will be as boring as usual if Bitcoin fails.   Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
I've bought a lot in the last month.  Managed to catch a $400, $375 and $350.  Now I just need it to go up before summer vacation since it's our vacation money.  Wink

I love you two. I believe in bitcoin. I admire your balls and resolve. However, sometimes, I do think you have been at the crack pipe Wink

The funny thing is we are super conservative in most things.  Never gamble, don't even drink and I don't think I have ever even seen a "crack pipe" and as far as investing in anything, I am super cheap. (BitchicksHusband is not as cheap and likes nice vacations as well as "quality" over quantity)  That said, I think taking this much risk in Bitcoin would seem out of our character from an outsider's point of view.  It is just that we believe in it that much.  Part of "faith" is being certain of things you hope for.  We are actually fairly certain at this point that Bitcoin will at least have another rally, or two or three.  I think we really feel like there is little risk vs. reward here. Wink And if the worst thing that happens with buying more coin this past month is that the kids miss out on a Summer trip to Disney World, oh well.  It is hot and humid in the Summer there anyways!   Cheesy

I agree that its fairly certain that holding BTC for the long term is savvy move. The rewards will take car of themselves. The risk however I think is something you have to actively manage. I agree no holiday to Disneyland is not a bad thing, even though I'm probably more like your husband as I like a nice thing or two (I stick to the small luxuries though, nice food & drink etc). Over time I've come to see value in ensuring I don't (year again) end up in financial ruin - even if that means sacrificing a percentage of potential future returns.

I say all this with the warmest of hearts, purely from a place of concern for my fellow man (and chick). I'd hate to see that one in a million failure scenario wipe *anyone* out least of all you guys.

Who knows 10 years time we might all meet up in Risto's castle, I'll bring my bitchick and chicklets, and laugh at how I ever doubted it Wink
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
I've bought a lot in the last month.  Managed to catch a $400, $375 and $350.  Now I just need it to go up before summer vacation since it's our vacation money.  Wink

I love you two. I believe in bitcoin. I admire your balls and resolve. However, sometimes, I do think you have been at the crack pipe Wink

The funny thing is we are super conservative in most things.  Never gamble, don't even drink and I don't think I have ever even seen a "crack pipe" and as far as investing in anything, I am super cheap. (BitchicksHusband is not as cheap and likes nice vacations as well as "quality" over quantity)  That said, I think taking this much risk in Bitcoin would seem out of our character from an outsider's point of view.  It is just that we believe in it that much.  Part of "faith" is being certain of things you hope for.  We are actually fairly certain at this point that Bitcoin will at least have another rally, or two or three.  I think we really feel like there is little risk vs. reward here. Wink And if the worst thing that happens with buying more coin this past month is that the kids miss out on a Summer trip to Disney World, oh well.  It is hot and humid in the Summer there anyways!   Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
I've bought a lot in the last month.  Managed to catch a $400, $375 and $350.  Now I just need it to go up before summer vacation since it's our vacation money.  Wink

I love you two. I believe in bitcoin. I admire your balls and resolve. However, sometimes, I do think you have been at the crack pipe Wink
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
Need a campaign manager? PM me
Managed to catch.... $350



Wow. Was it there for a couple of min or even less? My best was ~$364  Smiley

It was there for like 10 minutes

I got a buy at slightly above 350. Good times Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
Managed to catch.... $350



Wow. Was it there for a couple of min or even less? My best was ~$364  Smiley

It was there for like 10 minutes
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
Managed to catch.... $350



Wow. Was it there for a couple of min or even less? My best was ~$364  Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
I've bought a lot in the last month.  Managed to catch a $400, $375 and $350.  Now I just need it to go up before summer vacation since it's our vacation money.  Wink

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
So from the posts I read from you on the topic of speculation in recent posts.  The short term expectations is pretty much unknown but it is a good buy time, correct?

That is my opinion as well.

I am buying small amounts almost every workday.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
So from the posts I read from you on the topic of speculation in recent posts.  The short term expectations is pretty much unknown but it is a good buy time, correct?

That is my opinion as well.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 500
Time is on our side, yes it is!
So from the posts I read from you on the topic of speculation in recent posts.  The short term expectations is pretty much unknown but it is a good buy time, correct?
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
Dan was predicting sub $60 when we were >$100 right before acceleration to ATH.

Do you by chance have a link to this?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
By this weekend, the current rally on Huobi 6-hour resolution chart could once again get close to the long term resistance trendline. I drew the line it so that it was penetrated on April 16, but on the Bitstamp price chart that same line held all the back to the November peak. Many chartists are thinking it will breakout in May.

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): . . .  (when one side has higher figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the side with less resistance)

Although I recognized technical triangles in daily stock charts for decades, it was not until I actually watched realtime bitcoin tick by tick trades with a revealed order book, that I realized why they happen. It is exactly as you say. The dampened oscillations that frequently characterize bitcoin price charts at disparate time resolutions result from price discovery converging towards the trader's consensus.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish


How does green rule when there are more red candles than green? By my count 14 to 13 respectively.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
I could make some use for the following excel work:

- Weekly total fiat/bitcoin trade volume in all of the bitcoin economy (must be compiled with some clever method because exchange numbers are shit)
- Estimated percentage of virgin money (money that is coming to bitcoin economy that has never been part of bitcoin economy) per week
- USD/BTC price change that week

There has been long-term estimates by me that the marketcap grows 4 USD per every 1 USD invested. But it is very dependent on the phase of the cycle - in the top day of the peak, $10 million may pump it up by $1 billion (for 100:1 effect). In the grind down, there is still net investment into Bitcoin (the number of coins is growing and some previous holders are selling so some must be buying), and this metric turns negative such as -1:1 for the week when $20 million was invested but the marketcap nevertheless declined by the same amount.

Has anyone made this before? If not, how about making it for helping the community, or for a small bounty? Smiley

Apologies for the many who have volunteered to my projects. I get indundated with PM's. Just apply again and don't take it personally if I don't reply.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Quick TA update (at $0.481):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during this week, conclusion: none/(historically: bearish)
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.043, conclusion: both sides have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.355 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.037, slippage to buy: $0.049, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has higher figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.384 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: weak
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term (3+ months) buy zone
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
It now appears that adjusted transaction volume is headed down over the last two days, lagging the price movement by about three days . . .

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 500
Time is on our side, yes it is!
It does look like an interesting contests.  Not sure I have what it takes to win but I still may give it a try.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct?   From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!!  Grin

I am very busy at the moment, but I will enter this commendable wisdom of crowds contest when I get the time. Cheers!
Jump to: