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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 209. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
This trendline is what matters long-term:



Follow that and the price will come up naturally.

Cheers,

Assuming, that the bitcoin price is one million USD at full adoption, here is the S-Curve from my model. Note that the previous bubbles are not detectable on the linear chart because we are far away from full adoption . . .

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.


just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7


The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.

I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.


just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7


The (positive) oscillation does seem to dampen (he said based on his incredible 3 data points).
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.


just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
member
Activity: 116
Merit: 10
...I don't believe that the trendline is the right tool for deciding Bitcoin's ultimate fate. If the fundamentals are intact, buying low relative to the trend is proven to be a good strategy and likewise selling high. Following the trendline alone does not give exit signals, which means that if the price goes to zero, you are among the holders. This is a deliberate design decision, and I follow it myself. The world is full of FUDsters, preying on your coins. Better tell them strictly that you only sell them when the price is (not even right but) high.

This trendline is what matters long-term:



Follow that and the price will come up naturally.

Cheers,
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

The question warrants some thinking.

- First of all, the trend is recalculated periodically, and if we are lagging the previous trend a lot, then it will be adjusted downwards, to prevent it going to the extreme so easily. Having a weighted trend would further stress this point and would be good because the 5.35-yr trend is already "slow to adapt".

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

- Third: not this trendline, but some of the others, have shown that going to -1 does not mean that Bitcoin is doomed. jl2012's trendline went there just when it was the optimal buy zone in late 2011.

- I don't believe that the trendline is the right tool for deciding Bitcoin's ultimate fate. If the fundamentals are intact, buying low relative to the trend is proven to be a good strategy and likewise selling high. Following the trendline alone does not give exit signals, which means that if the price goes to zero, you are among the holders. This is a deliberate design decision, and I follow it myself. The world is full of FUDsters, preying on your coins. Better tell them strictly that you only sell them when the price is (not even right but) high.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
Oh, that's interesting.  Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out.  Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute.  That's different than I was thinking.  Thank you.  Hmm, what is our message until then?  When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses?  Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?
I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption.  We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc.  But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them.  Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar).  The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour.  They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it.  They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.  

Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin.  Not one.

Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are likely going to sit on the sidelines and wait.

We've still got a long way to go...

The market is still immature and we are all early adopters.. ppl hoping that it will happen tomorrow are clueless about how emerging tech starts... it takes up to 10 years for full scale adoption... and with what bitcoin hopes to do it may take longer because it will be a bigger change than other tech's.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
How much coins did you buy, Torque, if it is not an indiscretion?
Actually, it is  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
According to Novogratz, there are 30000 bitcoin developers, but we are at a state of lull right now.
I see absolutely NO practical advances in bitcoin in the last 6 mo, except endless difficulty rise.
Wallets did not become easier to use, people do not significantly increase bitcoin usage; in fact, usage is essentially flat at best (since November), etc., etc.

Things may change later this year, but so far very little progress has been made. Despite dreams about 1000, 10000, 100000 often professsed on this forum and elsewhere, investment in bitcoin in the last 6 mo is losing money, drip by drip (unless you picked up all your BTC at the absolute bottom).

I am not a sceptic long term, but short term bitcoin is a relative disappointment (at least for me). I am holding all of my positions, but not thinking of buying any more.

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.
full member
Activity: 165
Merit: 106
Actually you misunderstand me, I get that picture very well.  I'm HEAVILY invested in bitcoin currently as a store of value, so much so that a 10x increase and I could retire comfortably...FOREVER.  And I'm a permabull.  But that does not negate any of those realities I pointed out in my post about the masses using bitcoin as a daily currency.  I would wager that if bitcoin's ONLY use in life is a store of value, it will have failed in the eyes of many.

Fair enough, I considered myself heavily invested, but nowhere near able to retire comfortably with a 10x gain. I salute you, sir and good luck.
Depends how much you need to retire, no? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
How much coins did you buy, Torque, if it is not an indiscretion?

If BTC surpass the 4000USD before 12 months, I could not retire but to get a long lasting wanted caprice, or two, or three =D
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 253
Actually you misunderstand me, I get that picture very well.  I'm HEAVILY invested in bitcoin currently as a store of value, so much so that a 10x increase and I could retire comfortably...FOREVER.  And I'm a permabull.  But that does not negate any of those realities I pointed out in my post about the masses using bitcoin as a daily currency.  I would wager that if bitcoin's ONLY use in life is a store of value, it will have failed in the eyes of many.

Fair enough, I considered myself heavily invested, but nowhere near able to retire comfortably with a 10x gain. I salute you, sir and good luck.
legendary
Activity: 3696
Merit: 5269
I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption.  We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc.  But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them.  Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar).  The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour.  They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it.  They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.  

Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin.  Not one.

Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are still going to sit on the sidelines and wait.

We've still got a long way to go...



Seriously, that's how I used to feel, and it's the reason I didn't invest earlier. But you don't get the big picture. People are using bitcoin for a store of wealth -- much like digital gold -- hence the Winklevoss twins assertion of "gold 2.0". The utility of bitcoin in terms of retail growth is nice, but in the whole scheme of things, doesn't really mean shit. Bitcoin's "killer app" is its ease of entry into the investment world. Anyone with a bank account can sign up for an exchange account and be trading within a couple hours. I would wager that 9 out of 10 people here have very little investment experience outside of bitcoin.

Actually you misunderstand me, I get that picture very well.  I'm HEAVILY invested in bitcoin currently as a store of value, so much so that a 10x increase and I could retire comfortably...FOREVER.  And I'm a permabull.  But that does not negate any of those realities I pointed out in my post about the masses using bitcoin as a daily currency.  I would wager that if bitcoin's ONLY use in life is a store of value, it will have failed in the eyes of many.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 253
I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption.  We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc.  But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them.  Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar).  The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour.  They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it.  They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.  

Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin.  Not one.

Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are still going to sit on the sidelines and wait.

We've still got a long way to go...



Seriously, that's how I used to feel, and it's the reason I didn't invest earlier. But you don't get the big picture. People are using bitcoin for a store of wealth -- much like digital gold -- hence the Winklevoss twins assertion of "gold 2.0". The utility of bitcoin in terms of retail growth is nice, but in the whole scheme of things, doesn't really mean shit. Bitcoin's "killer app" is its ease of entry into the investment world. Anyone with a bank account can sign up for an exchange account and be trading within a couple hours. I would wager that 9 out of 10 people here have very little investment experience outside of bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3696
Merit: 5269
Oh, that's interesting.  Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out.  Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute.  That's different than I was thinking.  Thank you.  Hmm, what is our message until then?  When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses?  Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?
I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption.  We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc.  But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them.  Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar).  The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour.  They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it.  They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.  

Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin.  Not one.

Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are likely going to sit on the sidelines and wait.

We've still got a long way to go...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Quick TA update (at $0.429):
- 6H candle color/volume: very little volume for last few days, conclusion: historically bearish

In this set of indicators, the candle length/color is analyzed so that in the last few days in 6H chart (linked to auto-updating version), you assess whether the majority of the long candles are red or green. The rules are such that:

The longest candle in the last few days dominates the interpretation. We are essentially looking for evidence that it rules the trend.

The candle is locally-longest if it is longer than 3 candles in both sides. The locally-longest candle dominates the said candles in either side of it and they don't count no matter the color.

If the locally-longest candles are all of the same color, it points that the trend is in that direction (buying/selling with volume).

If there are both colors, there is no trend evident, unless one is clearly stronger.

If there are no tall candles, the next move is likely in accordance with the dominant medium-term (weeks) trend, which is currently down.

I decided to open this up, because the current situation is taller red candles combined with low volume since 2014-5-2, and points to a move down next, despite that we are already down.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
Everything is in price.. A market with sufficient liquidity will be equally efficient to factor in news.. unless its a surprise which even the manipulators dont know about. So a good trader will tell you price is everything.. it tells you a story associated with events. Its ez to get it right most of time with little practice but the art of taking hits and knowing when to quit on a trade is tied to your emotional "stableness" that only a few can achieve over long term.. most dont even know it exists and quit without understanding why other than dwindling balance.

Ah, the good old 'Efficient Market Hypothesis' - written by an academic,  never subjected to scientific scrutiny, criticised from the beginning by economists and now widely discredited.

Cheers,

I meant from a price disovery pov and not from a general economic health indication. Inefficiencies in price leads to arbs and arbs are always closed leading to efficiency. Ppl with knowledge win..Cant see it discredited when Ive seen it infront of my eyes.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
Oh, that's interesting.  Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out.  Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute.  That's different than I was thinking.  Thank you.  Hmm, what is our message until then?  When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses?  Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?

I'm in agreement with both jmw74 and pinky on this point. I now cringe when I hear people promoting bitcoin, and when asked myself, all I talk about is the blockchain and how a decentralized ledger can allow for distributed, open accounting and honesty when it comes to financial transactions. (I definitely don't talk about price, payments, vendors, or any of that stuff anymore)


I had heard previously about the adoption "gap" or "chasm" and I didn't understand or believe it, (most likely because this is the first time I have actually been an "early adopter" instead of waiting for the infrastructure to catch up to the technology.)

I think this paragraph explained it well:

Quote
Moore's technology adoption lifecycle graph [13] describes how technology enthusiasts and visionaries are the first to embrace a new technology, followed by a frustrating period of time before the pragmatists (early majority) start to utilise the technology, followed by conservatives (late majority) and finally sceptics (laggards).
source: http://www.ariadne.ac.uk/issue65/wolski-richardson

It certainly feels like we are in the middle of the chasm right now, and it is just a matter of time before all the moving parts come together to make bitcoin palatable to the masses... Of course, if we were to fail to cross the chasm and never gain mass adoption, there is a chance that the whole experiment could fail. I think, however, that the ongoing failure of the current system will make the advantages of bitcoin obvious to everyone and the chance of a complete failure becomes decreasingly likely.
hero member
Activity: 538
Merit: 500
Marketing is the absolutely last thing bitcoin needs. 

Who is going to look at a market that is almost entirely speculation, and say "you know what this needs?  MORE HYPE!"

Bitcoin is so far behind where people expect it to get to, there's no need for it to get further behind by raising more people's expectations.

I believe bitcoin will eventually deliver, but with things like Trezor being delayed indefinitely, it's not going to happen tomorrow.

+1

Bitcoin needs time to adjust. We had huge gains in the past year and now new services will emerge, because of this, but this takes time. VC poured a lot of money to new companies last year and they were only ideas in the head of enthusiasts, now it's time for engineers to work and deliver new services and make BTC user friendly. Unfortunately you cannot force this to happen.
hero member
Activity: 709
Merit: 503
Oh, that's interesting.  Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out.  Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute.  That's different than I was thinking.  Thank you.  Hmm, what is our message until then?  When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses?  Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?
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