rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 213.

JHammer

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: rpietila on April 29, 2014, 09:46:01 AM

Quote from: JHammer on April 29, 2014, 09:43:18 AM

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct? From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!! Grin

Thanks rpietila.. I love this thread and am completely new to TA but am learning a lot from you and this thread..

I ask before if you or anyone here had some good suggestions on where to start with learning TA and did not get many responses so been researching it myself best I can..

But I am going to try and learn enough to someday participate in this.. Sounds fun and a good way to put each persons TA to the test..

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: JHammer on April 29, 2014, 09:43:18 AM

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predictions the price correct? From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

The format that they must use to express the predictions is fixed. (This is a great advantage to the usual predicting where people predict whatever over whatever timeframe and have no scenario/probability understanding).

But the way to reach the conclusions of where the price is going is completely up to you!! Grin

JHammer

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: rpietila on April 29, 2014, 09:27:09 AM

For everyone interested in bitcoin price - soon we will have crowd-wisdom predictions for the price for any future month. The data will be gathered by a Price Prediction Contest method.

The "PPC" works such that contestants periodically submit predictions for future prices and when the future unfolds, they get rewarded points for the accuracy of their predictions, relative to other contestants. This highly competitive system steers all the predictions towards maximum aggregate accuracy, which can be used in financial planning.

And not only that - entrance to the competition is available for all, for a fee of only 50mBTC (about €15). A full 25% of entrants receive their money back at least double! The winner jackpot is always at least 1,000mBTC!! (All entrance fees + my bounty of 1,000mBTC go to the prize pot so the game is +EV )

Final beta rules are now available. The deadline for first round entries is next Monday 2014-5-5.

Sounds interesting.. So contestants can use any method they wish to predict the price correct? From TA to voodoo, to Tea Leafs to WAG's to monkey dart shots?

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

For everyone interested in bitcoin price - soon we will have crowd-wisdom predictions for the price for any future month. The data will be gathered by a Price Prediction Contest method.

The "PPC" works such that contestants periodically submit predictions for future prices and when the future unfolds, they get rewarded points for the accuracy of their predictions, relative to other contestants. This highly competitive system steers all the predictions towards maximum aggregate accuracy, which can be used in financial planning.

And not only that - entrance to the competition is available for all, for a fee of only 50mBTC (about €15). A full 25% of entrants receive their money back at least double! The winner jackpot is always at least 1,000mBTC!! (All entrance fees + my bounty of 1,000mBTC go to the prize pot so the game is +EV )

Final beta rules are now available. The deadline for first round entries is next Monday 2014-5-5.

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

Quote from: threecats on April 28, 2014, 06:50:59 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 06:11:37 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 06:04:04 AM

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

Actually Dan was calling 400's back at 850.One would have made a shitload of money following his model. Say what you want about his low end, but to call him 'consistantly wrong' is undeserved.

It's not hard to make it right when you make 30 different charts per day. Many people called 400$ at that point, even usual perma bull rpietila.

Dan just throws his shit each hour and when it finally meets some of his projection - voila, he's EW prophet.

There are loads of people here and on Tradingview that could make you much more shitload of money than Dan could if you followed them. And on daily basis, not on 5 months one. If you followed Dan's advices and back it up with shorting, you'd get squezeed more time than you had dollars to trade with.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: 2017orso on April 28, 2014, 04:40:01 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:49:00 PM

Quote from: 2017orso on April 28, 2014, 01:57:07 PM

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets. Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.

Granted. Nevertheless, 'wave counts can be ambiguous'.

Aware of the representations of aggregate psychology as manifestations of bubble-like activity. For the most part, this falls within the realm of common sense. Wave counts encompassing bubble phases are insignificant and being adamant about in-depth wave counts in this case is simply obnoxious.

one way or the other, physics does fall into the realm of common sense. wave theory is very detailed, I couldnt call a top with common sense.
I agree 100% with that said in bold. I am not such an anlayst. rule of thumb, the price can go up, or down, at any point in time Wink

2017orso

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:49:00 PM

Quote from: 2017orso on April 28, 2014, 01:57:07 PM

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets. Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.

Granted. Nevertheless, 'wave counts can be ambiguous'.

Aware of the representations of aggregate psychology as manifestations of bubble-like activity. For the most part, this falls within the realm of common sense. Wave counts encompassing bubble phases are insignificant and being adamant about in-depth wave counts in this case is simply obnoxious.

pa

hero member

Activity: 528

Merit: 501

Quote from: Roccker on April 28, 2014, 02:59:03 PM

In hindsight Rpietila would have lost and this is all well and good.

Don't be hasty. It's still possible the bet would have ended in a draw.

Roccker

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 111

[just want to quickly be one voice regarding 'the bet' instead of just a silent reader]
Did not read everything but great stuff as ever and my respect for rpietila has risen as well as Windjc who also wanted to bet. Rpietila offered a bet and nobody took it, Windjc offered another bet and Rpietila did not take it because he did not like the conditions. All well and good. In hindsight Rpietila would have lost and this is all well and good. Two (experienced) guys who write what they think the prize will be and willing to make open bets, that's great stuff - concrete, honest, open - and i am very thankful for that.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: 2017orso on April 28, 2014, 01:57:07 PM

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets. Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.

2017orso

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Dan was predicting sub $60 when we were >$100 right before acceleration to ATH.

Being bearish after the ATH is not a sign of much but common sense, regardless whether lines are drawn.

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets. Bitcoin is none of those.

If you want to follow the price predictions of TA, 4xforecaster at least has some sense. Instead of being stubborn about wave counts, he is objective and malleable regarding actual order dynamics.

Needless to say, I am quite excited we are entering depression amongst the small players, while institutional level demand is increasing off the exchanges.

rjp55

sr. member

Activity: 798

Merit: 250

CurioInvest [IEO Live]

Sounds settled then. Why argue with skeptic speculators when you can follow his every word and make a fortune?

Go, go, go....

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Better real estate for bitcoin (a bit pricey is a downturn, though):

http://cryptocrimson.com/2014/04/9462-btc-buy-23-room-hotel-island-sardinia/

https://twitter.com/BitPremier/status/460791272148459520/photo/1

Arghhh

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: Dalmar on April 28, 2014, 07:00:48 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 06:11:37 AM

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

A bear being correct during a downtrend? No way! Get out of here!

Roll Eyes

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1106

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 07:58:54 AM

ok I stopped watching his video when he kept using this chart that began in late 2011 and he guessed that the high in 2011 was $11.

He is aware of Mt.Gox's longer price history and has charted it before, but it's not available on tradingview anymore. For sake of convenience during the lecture he chose that random spot on bitstamp to point out elliott waves. It was not meant as the literal early wave and has no influence on further analysis.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

ok I stopped watching his video when he kept using this chart that began in late 2011 and he guessed that the high in 2011 was $11.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Dalmar on April 28, 2014, 07:55:09 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 28, 2014, 07:50:39 AM

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

He's fairly new to bitcoin and only started charting it around the China bubble. So, we can't really say that he would have been bearish in previous cycles.

No, so please don't draw any (good or bad) conclusions on the results of his 3 seconds of fame.

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1106

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: wachtwoord on April 28, 2014, 07:50:39 AM

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

He's fairly new to bitcoin and only started charting it around the China bubble. So, we can't really say that he would have been bearish in previous cycles.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Dalmar on April 28, 2014, 07:00:48 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 06:11:37 AM

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1106

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 06:11:37 AM

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 213. (Read 907229 times)