Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 239. (Read 907227 times)
What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. :
Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Marketcap has higher R^2 = 94.6 so it is better.
Maybe something like volume*price could be more accurate?
Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Marketcap has higher R^2 = 94.6 so it is better.
Can someone crunch the numbers and verify the above trendline data?
x=64 months
y= 10.4
Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap.
x=64 months
y= 10.4
Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap.
10^10.4 = 25B.
R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.
x=64 months
y= 10.4
Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap.
Which leads to a trend line price of around 793$.
Perhaps the formula uses natural log instead or something else I am missing?
Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?
I love a good sale!
Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!
If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good
Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up?
Hopefully it is just a "one hour sale" or a "24 Hour sale" at most!
BTC-e seems to be going full retard !
Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up?
Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?
I love a good sale!
Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!
If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
That can be a momentous discovery, so I needed to do it as soon as I had the time
I used the monthly data in the trendline thread, multiplied by end-of-month total number of bitcoins, to have a set of 64 consecutive months' marketcaps. Then took a log of these and plotted.
R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.
Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?
I love a good sale!
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
That can be a momentous discovery, so I needed to do it as soon as I had the time
I used the monthly data in the trendline thread, multiplied by end-of-month total number of bitcoins, to have a set of 64 consecutive months' marketcaps. Then took a log of these and plotted.
R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.
Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.
The sell signal is when price = 3*trend
I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.
the trend is never below where it should be, it is just a trend. The price can be below the trend.
Sell signal level has nothing to do with current price. It is predefined. It is only a function of time and trend (sell signal happens when current price = trend price * 3)
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?
Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.
Sorry, it is more clear. In my opinion BTC is enough of a ride without margin. You could wipe out ALL your bitcoins very fast and be left standing when the real rise starts. Don't forget that we are looking at a 4 months decline right now and that on a pure TA, things don't look good. Fundamentals are very good, but in your position I would wait for clear reversal signals before going on margin. Catching a falling knife is risky, catching a falling knife while jumping is, well yes, reckless.
Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?
Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.
Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.
The sell signal is when price = 3*trend
I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.
the trend is never below where it should be, it is just a trend. The price can be below the trend.
Sell signal level has nothing to do with current price. It is predefined. It is only a function of time and trend (sell signal happens when current price = trend price * 3)
Rpietila what are your thoughts about going long on margin for someone who don't have fiat anymore, would it be a reckless or savvy move?
Only risk what you can afford to lose. People who do such things are usually punished.
Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.
The sell signal is when price = 3*trend
I understand this but if the trend is below where it should be then the sell signal will be premature.
Edit: I am more convinced than before that your trendline errs on the side of predicting a BTC/USD rate on the low side and can lead to a premature sell indicator.
The sell signal is when price = 3*trend
Jump to: