Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 238. (Read 907248 times)
Woof. China almost looks like there's news its so explosive. That's a mighty strong bounce for a dead cat.
Woke up, missed all the cheap coins. 
Gotta say, I hope you don't get a second chance at them. And if you don't... then these are the cheap coins.
But I am afraid we see mid 300s within 24-72... please tell me I am wrong.
Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere?
I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM.
I used to total number of BTC created using the Blockchain data. One issue I am still trying to grapple with is accounting for irrevocably lost coins. I followed the model of accounting for stock splits when pricing a stock; however in the case of Bitcoin the "stock split" occurs approximately every 10 min. For example 12,629,850 BTC is "split" to 12,629,875 BTC when the next block is mined.
Take a look at the BIT. The deep pockets are buying. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0;all
Edit: So much for liquidity at the beginning of April.
Edit: So much for liquidity at the beginning of April.
IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.
Probably not. It is actually really difficult for us to go down that low. The odds are that we won't go down any further. I am not a TA expert but it is because of the number of people involved in Bitcoin now. There are too many people that want Bitcoin now so to get below $300 would be difficult and to $250 almost impossible. We are already at 80% below the trend line as it is.
Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?
I love a good sale!
Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!
If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good
Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower. So read this as long as you can. He will delete that post as soon as he can. Because this is a glorification thread. Critique is not allowed...
Microsoft is a great example given it close to monopoly status on desktop computer operating systems and office software. From 1987 to 2000 it followed an exponential growth model just like our model. This corresponds to the adoption of the desktop / laptop PC and is a classic S curve. When the adoption reaches close to the inflection point at 50% one gets a short continuation of the exponential followed by a long term crash, when the market realizes that the exponential cannot go on for ever. At this point the exponential approximation to the S curve breaks down. For Bitcoin I would expect this to occur somewhere between 100,000 USD to 1,000,000 USD, corresponding to about 50% market adoption. Take a look at Microsoft on a log scale from 1987 onwards. https://www.google.ca/finance?q=NASDAQ:MSFT&sa=X&ei=BmJHU9zHMPP7yAHvnIGoDA&ved=0CCoQ2AEwAA Facebook on the other hand is a very poor example because when it went public it was close to saturating its market, in effect leaving very little, if anything, on the table for the retail investor.
A very similar model can be used for RCA in the 1920s and 1930s with the stock continuing on an exponential path to its peak in 1929, while the adoption of radio was at the time reaching the inflection point of the S curve. Internet stocks peaked around 2000 while Internet penetration had reached around 50% in most of the developed economies. Again a blow off to a major top close to the inflection point of the adoption S curve.
IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.
Lines crossing means nothing lol.
IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere?
I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM.
Darn. So we have to wait for Monday for you to help pump the price back up?
The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere?
I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM.
Price index is at 256 EUR but on localbitcoin you cannot find meaningful offer (I mean any decent quantity) for less than 296 EUR.
That's a cool 15%. I would have bought more coins but not at 15+% over exchange price...
That's a cool 15%. I would have bought more coins but not at 15+% over exchange price...
Am waiting patiently at $269.90 for 10 more coins. Come on give a little push 
Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower.
15 years ago microsoft released its last new OS. Since then they've been milking an increasingly aged cow. Bitcoin has penetrated less that 1/10000 of its potential market -- less, if you multiply by the number of use-cases already invented, and much less if you multiply by the number of use-cases not yet invented. Bitcoin today is better compared to microsoft in 1984 than microsoft in 1999.
1984 Microsoft was pre-IPO. It had been in operation for a little over 5 years. If you charted its pre-IPO price, you would find the volatility was comparable to the current volatility of bitcoin.
Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?
I love a good sale!
Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!
If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good
Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower. So read this as long as you can. He will delete that post as soon as he can. Because this is a glorification thread. Critique is not allowed...
Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up?
Chart is breaking down. No resistance til 200 area
$366 on bitstamp. Golly, these sale prices just keep getting better and better! It's a liquidation. All bitcoins must go!
What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. :
How do you know that?
It was bedtime
Now it's morning and Huobi is busy catching up
What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. :
How do you know that?
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