rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 284.

Peter R

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Quote from: rpietila on March 28, 2014, 07:32:10 AM

The bottom is in when everybody (I'm pointing to oyvinds, who is a reasonable guy) just makes up reasons why the price would fall further, to justify that they are selling out of rational grounds, and not out of FEAR, meanwhile happily ignoring the actual driver behind bitcoin price, which is bitcoin adoption. To keep it as simple as possible, I present only the following figures:

Block 270,000 (2013-11-16) 0.93 million non-dust addresses
Block 290,000 (2014-3-11) 1.34 million non-dust addresses

How can the price go down as bitcoins are being diverted to more and more hands, and the average dollar amount the new hands invest stays constant? Sure it can go on for 1-2 more months (2 months is my guess) or even longer, but the resulting upside will be that much more spectacular.

Wake up to some math now dudes!

Like Risto says, the value of the bitcoin network grows with adoption. If you want to increase the price, then you want to work towards increasing adoption.

The graph below shows that bitcoin's market cap seems to obey Metcalfe's Law in terms of adoption: V ~ N² .

hdbuck

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Quote from: cosmofly on March 28, 2014, 08:23:43 AM

I have no doubt in my mind that the finish elite can be after rpietila, i have lived in Finland for 6 months on work and the politics are brutal with lot of corruption believe it or not.

sooo rpietila is being hunted by a bunch of professional ice hockey players? Grin

-> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liiga

Dotto

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No maps for these territories

Zapffe added to the ignore list. Please go on with the analisys, Rpietila

cosmofly

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PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance

I have no doubt in my mind that the finish elite can be after rpietila, i have lived in Finland for 6 months on work and the politics are brutal with lot of corruption believe it or not.

rpietila

donator

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on March 28, 2014, 07:06:30 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Cool story, bro. I thought that YLE 2 didn't show commercials as an national television channel, but things can get really weird when the Finnish elite is after you, right?

Take your accusations to a separate thread. From now on, you are not welcome to this thread, like that troll kkaspar before you was banned from the whole forum. All your posts will be deleted and reported, have a good day!

Oh no! Not the ban! You sure are showing the evil Finnish elite their place by telling on them, so they would get banned! But you aren't exactly what could be called as technology wise, aren't you. You aren't exactly informed about using new registered names and even VPNs. But, maybe it all works out this time. Now, go, run you sniveling little weasel, go cry to the administrators some more, that the boys are making fun of you.

In all seriousness to my astute readers - do you know even one other person in the whole forum who is attacked as systematically using fake identities etc.? Why is my speaking so dangerous; even I don't get it Sad

I strongly recommend to ignore this troll, but in case you want to read what he has to say, you can also quickly ascertain that everything is pure bullshit, by checking my previous posts where there is nothing about "Finnish elite", "Risto's unsavory businesses" (I closed all my business some time ago) or any of the other strawmen. Admitting the use of multiple accounts and VPN's just to harass me is just sad. How can you win if you declare that you are either a douche or a snitch Sad

podyx

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Quote from: rpietila on March 28, 2014, 07:32:10 AM

The bottom is in when everybody (I'm pointing to oyvinds, who is a reasonable guy) just makes up reasons why the price would fall further, to justify that they are selling out of rational grounds, and not out of FEAR, meanwhile happily ignoring the actual driver behind bitcoin price, which is bitcoin adoption. To keep it as simple as possible, I present only the following figures:

Block 270,000 (2013-11-16) 0.93 million non-dust addresses
Block 290,000 (2014-3-11) 1.34 million non-dust addresses

How can the price go down as bitcoins are being diverted to more and more hands, and the average dollar amount the new hands invest stays constant? Sure it can go on for 1-2 more months (2 months is my guess) or even longer, but the resulting upside will be that much more spectacular.

Wake up to some math now dudes!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

The bottom is in when everybody (I'm pointing to oyvinds, who is a reasonable guy) just makes up reasons why the price would fall further, to justify that they are selling out of rational grounds, and not out of FEAR, meanwhile happily ignoring the actual driver behind bitcoin price, which is bitcoin adoption. To keep it as simple as possible, I present only the following figures:

Block 270,000 (2013-11-16) 0.93 million non-dust addresses
Block 290,000 (2014-3-11) 1.34 million non-dust addresses

How can the price go down as bitcoins are being diverted to more and more hands, and the average dollar amount the new hands invest stays constant? Sure it can go on for 1-2 more months (2 months is my guess) or even longer, but the resulting upside will be that much more spectacular.

Wake up to some math now dudes!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: ?? on ??

What's the most you ever WON on a coin toss?

Gambling is so regulated that the answer is zero. Oh sorry 1BTC for wagering that it goes to $1000 before summer 2014 (when we bet it was 400). And I will win another 1BTC if it does not hit 5000 before next summer. I don't remember betting anything else despite talking about it much

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Cool story, bro. I thought that YLE 2 didn't show commercials as an national television channel, but things can get really weird when the Finnish elite is after you, right?

Take your accusations to a separate thread. From now on, you are not welcome to this thread, like that troll kkaspar before you was banned from the whole forum. All your posts will be deleted and reported, have a good day!

chessnut

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"It added that investors are free to trade in bitcoins at their own risk, but should know they cannot be used as legal tender."

That is hopeful to me. the attitude is not hostile, and I think that means by the by the unclear ways of the PBOC, we may have some positive announcements.

trainingsengineering

newbie

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 27, 2014, 03:07:05 PM

I had been pointing out this problem over the past weeks and months (remember upthread I pointed out that automating this computation was not realistic):

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/why-bitcoin-can-no-longer-work-as-a-virtual-currency-in-1-paragraph/359648/

Quote

If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn't work as a commercial medium of exchange.

But that article points out another problem with the fact that Bitcoin is not untaxable as legal tender:

Quote

The price at which a particular Bitcoin was acquired (and this is traceable) determines the capital gains on that particular Bitcoin when spent. If I spend Bitcoin A, which I bought at $10, but is now worth $400, I’ve got a very different tax treatment than if I spend Bitcoin B, which I bought at $390. […] This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency.

The reason this destroys fungibility is that people will need to think about tax timing and implications when spending money, i.e. they have to bind their money to their total tax planning.

The guidance for the IRS was absolutely not good news, imo, as some would have it. Please to those who think it is, elaborate more.
However, it was as expected, though I would say it makes more sense to tax it as an intangible, instead. Even if the masses would start to use bitcoin (which is what you claim is the goal from TPTB?), then the infrastructure needs much development still. I think we are many awaiting what you are working on, as it is obvious bitcoin in its current form could become somewhat salivating for the top-down controlled powers in place.

rpietila

donator

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Quote from: AnonyMint on March 27, 2014, 05:04:04 PM

I am not gloating about his manor. Only wishing he could have invested that to become $100 millionaire first.

Actually I am very good at portfolio balancing and scenario thinking.

Quote from: seleme on March 27, 2014, 07:38:21 PM

People had shut down a bit, including me who was one of his biggest detractors because he talks less shit and act more as normal guy than utter lunatic he did back in April/May/June 2013 when he was talking nonsense of 300 000$ coins by the end of the year and other shit.

No it was not about the forecast an sich. Just 2-3 months ago there was this Cult of Super-Exponential Trendline, which also forecasted $1 million this year. The members of that one were never reviled personally just because they believed in the fad for a short time.

It is just that some people are a constant target of attacks, I believe the newbies who find their way here after 4 posts and then attack me are just paid, with the old-timers there is ego conflict. But as is evident if an outside observer reads my posts history, I never go ad hominem. I can avoid the temptation because I am not just naturally very interested in people, rather ideas.

Quote from: GigaCoin on March 28, 2014, 03:23:35 AM

If it was really confirmed the price would've been at $300 by now.

I can sell you puts for $300. Going there is about 1:5 in my opinion, but I don't believe that anything that China does can much change the prospects. USA just ruled positively.

I am always surprised that some people want to sell at the bottoms and buy at the tops. Time after time I say: don't be so stupid to think that they exist. Just buy. Still I am always proven wrong, somehow the low-sellers do exist, and I got to buy back my large short from December at 448.

chessnut

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Right Im with you ^^

creekbore

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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: chessnut on March 28, 2014, 03:09:26 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 28, 2014, 03:00:19 AM

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator. Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

Not sure about that, I thought China was driving the market.

That's my point...the drop we are seeing is mainly the Chinese/Asian timezone (its 7pm here in the Eastern tropics)...when Europe wakes up it will respond, then the US.

btw Taking much comfort from that H&S still Wink

GigaCoin

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Giga

Quote from: Pruden on March 28, 2014, 02:59:41 AM

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

If it was really confirmed the price would've been at $300 by now. There is still a lot of confusion, coindesk interviewed btcchina and hiobi ceos and both said this is so far just a rumor. I'm kinda surprised we're back at $515 now

I think after what happened last time people are more careful, once there is some form of an official confirmation like a CEO saying its all over now, i expect a sell off, because if indeed true this news is very grave.

TERA

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Even if the news is confirmed I suspect that the full drop will not occur until bank accounts or exchanges actually get shut down.

Asrael999

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Quote from: Pruden on March 28, 2014, 02:59:41 AM

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

because it is not actually confirmed yet - there is no official comment from the PBOC and the only source remains Caixen (sp?)

That said given the problems in the Chinese Banking and Shadow Banking systems it is hardly surprising that an almost closed system would be looking very hard at mechanisms that are outside of their control and which enable capital flight.

chessnut

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Quote from: creekbore on March 28, 2014, 03:00:19 AM

Quote from: chessnut on March 28, 2014, 02:47:35 AM

A picture like that has to be a joke. obviously.

Rpietila, Do you think we have hit another bottom?

This event has unfolded in a classic elliot wave. high volume on the third wave, wedge (dry liqiudity) fourth, exhaustion by the fifth (465), and now a sharp reaction.

The bottom must come within a couple days of this if the news is legit right? because the decision necessary to make by all the chinese investors is pretty straight forward.

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator. Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

Not sure about that, I thought China was driving the market.

chessnut

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Quote from: Pruden on March 28, 2014, 02:59:41 AM

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

well I will never know for sure myself, I dont trust anything but the chart.

The chart tells me that something indeed is confirmed and it is bad news, but that the recent price action has been panic, and the fall has been exhausted. If the news is 'fact' or decisive then a binary outcome would be much swifter and severe.

The head and shoulders is comforting.

creekbore

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Quote from: chessnut on March 28, 2014, 02:47:35 AM

A picture like that has to be a joke. obviously.

Rpietila, Do you think we have hit another bottom?

This event has unfolded in a classic elliot wave. high volume on the third wave, wedge (dry liqiudity) fourth, exhaustion by the fifth (465), and now a sharp reaction.

The bottom must come within a couple days of this if the news is legit right? because the decision necessary to make by all the chinese investors is pretty straight forward.

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator. Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 284. (Read 907227 times)