Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 336. (Read 907227 times)

To be fair, it was hilarious to watch his predictions days and weeks after the 450 also, all of them being totally wrong.

We are not far off your caclulated trendline $648.
Any reason why you think that we will start being underbought for sometime, i.e.: $400?

Rpietila has had some incredible accuracy previously. His predictions in late November and early December of getting to the 400-450 range were really quite incredible. It was hilarious watching permabull (im long bull) trolls ripping on him and then all proven wrong when the price hit his numbers perfectly.   

Wow much accurancy. (so far)

My intention is to bring liberty people to the forum, so that the statists like you would see the light and amend your heretical ways

If you take only Mt.Gox as your data, we are even more above the trendline.

On the surface this appears as sound advice. I mean with the recent bearish move and we are still above the trend line (577 BTC / USD For January 2014). Then there is the army of bears bearing iPhones coming out of Mother Russia. There is however one little problem, I just cannot trust that 2009 and early 2010 data.  So I am not selling any of my BTC (the bulk of my portfolio is in BTC) and I will pass on those short BTC / USD CFD's in my trading account. Instead I will sit back and watch the Putin Spectacle aka Olympic Ceremony starting about now.

Sir,
Hell hath no fury etc and I'm still forgiving you for ignoring my PM last year.

But I think its a shame you, Goat, Aminorex and the rest feel you can't co-exist with the rest of us.  This is a self-modded thread - you should mod it and mould it to what you want - I'm sure people could live with that.
 
Considering much of the BTC idealism around crypto making the world a better and more egalitarian place has already been sacrificed on the alter of consumerism/greed, your move smacks of elitism.  There is also the evolutionary psychology aspect: closed environments tend to lead to closed minds. And to be frank, I don't like cliques (they tend to attract fools, don't you think?). 

As much as I give you a hard-time occasionally I enjoy your posts, as I do the others mentioned above (although on reflection, most of Goat's posts are CCMF, pix of his Lambo and tales of hookers and blow).  The folks who annoy you now will soon pass by, that's the nature of forums, but new users who you appreciate will also join.

SO, about that floor.

I'm not sure about 'capitulation': I wonder if the medium and processes used by BTC (ie the internet, immediacy etc) are modifying people's investment behaviours, so the former paradigms and expectations of market behaviour are changing (much like FB has changed relationship behavioural patterns).

Anyway, thanks for your response re. the floor - the St Valentine's Day massacre? - we'll see. 

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

Madam,

Why is your tongue so sharp?

Concerning the correction - I had some bids in the 600-700 area (most of) which were fulfilled. This was a small short-term gain after selling at ~800 when that level started to feel shaky 1-2 weeks ago.

This is an excellent setup for the "final capitulation", the bottom of which can be anywhere significantly below the current price of $664 and the exponential trend which is today at $648. Around $400 is my guess. I now put the chances of going lower at above 50%. Long time ago I played with the possible dates and found that Feb 14 is a good candidate for being the low point. Any time until end of March is possible though.

Mt.Gox may blow up and could catalyze further crashes. A persistent downward trend also suppresses new investment. It is just the way the market goes - in waves. The good thing is that when we see the bottom, there is no more downside left, it is all UP, UP, UP.

TL;DR: I think the confidence is now decisively shaken based on the price action alone, which means that trend is down until exhaustion.

Everybody who advocates an economy and a market is by definition a statist, since beyond the state and the society you won't find an economy or a market place.
People who are living beyond the state live in self-sufficient communities. That's the difference to all those who 'live' in a society. The difference of citizens vs. humans. The citizen is a collectivist cartoon of the former human, the homo oeconomicus a cartoon of the homo sapiens.
Most libertarians do not know anything of this historic reality. They are dreamers and apologists of the so called 'progress', which is nothing more than systematic destruction of the planet in exponentially increasing pace.

Wow, I checked in to see what the great, cigar-smoking brains were thinking and what a potential floor for this correction may be: I find some meta-discussion about forums and that some VIP forum has been set up.  No riff-raff. 

"Being a millionaire is not required" - hilarious

I take the stance of Marx (Groucho not Karl) with regard to clubs.

A better idea is here is really simple. If one does not have data for a particular month then one does not include a data point for that month. Furthermore not including a data point encourages other members of the community research for the missing data, a much more constructive alternative to "blame". If one has data that is questionable, then one has various options: 1) Not include the data, 2) Include the data with a caveat. 3) Provide results with and without the questionable data and let the reader be the judge. All of these are reasonable and can be justified. The choice here can be subjective and the subject of different points of view and debate. What is not acceptable is to make up data to for example replace missing data points.

Now let us consider the January 2009 data point. You have a sale at 0.001 BTC / USD rate. The options here are to include the data point at 0.001 BTC / USD rate or not include it as above. These options are of course perfectly reasonable. None of this however provides any justification for a data point of 0.005 BTC / USD. Given the absence of any further evidence (more January 2009 data points to justify an average of 0.005 BTC / USD for January 2009) one can only conclude that this January 2009 data point of 0.005 BTC / USD was simply made up.

We now come to the question of blame: Blame needs to be same for the same amount of error. The critical issue to consider here is that we are dealing with a log scale, which means that an error of a factor of 5 on a data point of 0.001 equivalent an error of a factor of 5 on a data point of say 517 (November 2013), so the appropriate amount of blame for the made up January 2009 data point needs to be same as if the November 2013 data point was changed by a factor of five to either 2585 BTC / USD or 103.4 BTC / USD.

Since there appears to be is a substantial number of made up data points (January 2009 - May 2010) it becomes apparent that the slope of the trend line can easily be changed as a result of this to yield a "sell" indicator instead of a "buy" or vice versa.

Please keep posting here as well. I like a good dose of positive projections every now and then.

The forum is a full one week old now, please give us some time!

My idea has originally been to allow and encourage lurkers (after all, my reason to post is to influence people, and in general more readers = more influence). Then I switched to "incubator forum with a controlled public interface (blog, media contact)" model, which I am currently advocating. Some other people want to have a relaxing lounge without trolls but also without world-changing effect.

It is in a constant evolution, but we would likely keep the metatalk there. If you want an invitation, just ask somebody who is already in, but not me, unless you actually know me. We are responsible of whom we take in, and I would not like to actually decline somebody's wish just based on that. Besides, I am busy with other matters than membership rights administration


"Wall Observer" is a part of bitcoin culture, which means that a thread is officially about walls, heavily moderated, TA, and such, but in reality just an interesting thread about whatever is at hand. Btw. isn't it a little masochistic to go to self-moderated viper's den to scold the viper? 


So much blame with so little data that could be used to replace the contested part!

As if I did not know that the first USD/Bitcoin exchange was conducted in January 2009 with an exchange rate of $0.001 per bitcoin? Sirius, who was the seller, told this to me while sitting on the couch of my private club sipping my whisky. You can read from the thread in question, why these individual instances are ignored and rather an average has been used. Until someone has a better idea, that is.


Not posting useless crap is a hygiene matter, yes, that will be enforced brutally. After a couple of people you brought to the forum have been banned, you will also.

It would be good that you had at least some field of interest/experience that you could share and contribute. At present we are negative towards lurkers (as discussed above). It does not need to be Bitcoin-related.

This is a forum for liberty-lovers ("anarchists", "libertarians", "anti-statists"). So if statism is your thing, stay away. We will detect it anyway and kick you out

Having 500 posts helps a great lot, because after such an amount of contribution, we definitely see whether you are the right type or not. There is a proposal that we have a two-tier forum where quality posters would be invited to the deeper section, but then again, almost every thing has already been proposed

Being a millionaire is not required, but some of the content is strongly related to the ongoing process of us all becoming millionaires and how we should prepare for the eventuality (and for the scenario that the supposed eventuality does not materialize).

about this new forum:

what makes one worthy to be in it?
ist it basic stuff like:
not posting useless crap ( "why don't we reposess inactive coins?", spamming useless altcoins)
unterstanding EMAs?
or do you need to have 500 posts and be able to discuss the finer points of elliptic curves or be a millionaire?

I am willing to give the OP credit because he did come up with some very good TA ideas; however his "assumed" data for 2009 and early 2010, "the bathwater" is really testing my patience. I mean what is the justification for this BTC / USD rate of 0.005 for January 2009? I mean this is just like a couple of weeks after Satoshi mined the genesis block! So maybe it is time to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

No.  This was always a thread about one man's ego.  The title shows that.

+1

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.