Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 335. (Read 907212 times)

do you think that gox bit depth has any meaning left at this point in time?
perhaps BTCe or bitstamp would give a better indication. I wonder - can one view those big orders down there. I cant on my account.

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

- I don't see 266 to be broken, and my belief is backed by the two previous bubbles (ie. not much).

- It could go to low 300s if you ask me, which is good value if you have excess fiat.

- A double bottom in around 382 seems quite realistic.

- 500 will be broken almost surely, before we can move up.

As regards bid depth, can you see that Gox bid depth above 500 has gone down to 1/3 of what it was? Bid depth does not mean much because part of it is manipulation and the other part belongs to people whose considerations change along with price.

Can you see the orders? where do you get that info?

What is below 450 is resistance and a fuck ton of money waiting to enter the market place.

yeah... waves or no waves.....
Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment.
they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right?
Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range.
what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise.

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

It was just luck, boys...

My calculations do confirm the above. I ran both your data including the 2009, and early 2010 data, (reproducing your results) and the MTGox / Bitstamp data from July 2010 with a current trendline of 300 BTC / USD. Adjusting for Bitcoin inflation (basically applying the exponential to the market cap as opposed to the price) produced 328 BTC / USD. So yes the impact of removing the 2009 and early 2010 data is to give a stronger stronger short term sell signal. Having said that let us not get carried away here, there is still a trendline over 2000 USD / BTC for December of this year for the most bearish trendline.

I will be the first one to congratulate you on making a solid longterm prediction. I dont think there is a solid chance of touching 500 and below, but if it happens, well, congrats on nailing the 2nd bottom, that would be quite an achievement. Since in my eyes you are somewhat an underdog if you put most of your buy orders there. That takes some balls (or delusion, or both), so respect either way.

Which I did, and am patiently waiting to buy back cheaper (the buys last night were to cover the short from a week ago).


By "any time" I literally meant that it can happen either imminently, or at any other time before end of March. If you sell from your own position, you don't incur time cost, so it does not matter if the buyback happens now or later - what matters is the %gain of your bitcoin stash. Sorry if you misunderstood that I meant it should go down right then.

I gained undeserved popularity for "nailing" the Dec 18 crash, where I used the same wording, meaning that the price will certainly go from 870 to below 500 some time in the future. Of course it did but I never said it would happen the following day from the prediction. It is difficult to time events, directions and magnitudes are easier.

And I still predict that 500 comes, and when it does, I will post to Adam's thread again. So everyone who bought higher fell into bull trap and I was right, ok? 

Sorry to be debbie downer, but I don't personally believe there is any super secret TA going here on that only one person is privy too (no offense rpietila, I believe that you are a pretty sharp person and of higher intelligence than a lot on this board, lol).

If one simply believes that this bubble rise-ATH-burst-consolidate-capitulate-newATH pattern is pre-destined and will play out similar to that of April 2013 and even July 2012, all one really has to do is extrapolate the previous bubble data from the charts using % ratios and relative time frames.  Not really that hard.  I believe that bubble rise/falls are macro patterns that are inevitable... but we participants don't have the foresight or knowledge to predict what will happen to cause the relative price swings and exactly when.  But if you believe in patterns repeating, it's enough to just "know" that history will repeat itself.

Will there be a final capitulation?  Sure there will, because there always has been in previous bubbles.

Did we just have it?  No one knows for sure, only future data will bear that out in hindsight.  But the timeframe just seems a little soon to call it the lowest low, and the ratio of the price fall compared to previous capitulation doesn't quite measure up.  But who knows, the market might be a little more resistant than it was in previous bubbles.  We could have very well seen close to the bottom.

Yes capitulation means the final stage of the bear market and the dawn of a new bull market

He is also said something like "i've sold 400BTC in the last 3 days" @dec28, said "dont fall in the bulltrap, 500$ incoming" soon afterwards, and made a short-term prediction that "market would crash any time" that failed completely.

Or maybe i just misunderstood things and it went completely as planned and fell into the pattern of 30 different predicted scenarios.

Kudos to him for calling out 380 or whatever, (i wasnt one of those bulls who ridiculed him back then btw), but his track record of predictions isnt all that great like you make it sound.

Must be my bad then, i will read them more carefully from now on, maybe i need a pair of glasses or something
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To give rpietila is dues, he turned bearish when Bitcoin was making its first leg up past $1100 on Stamp. $370 I seem to remember him stating that his target was. I also remember the volume of abuse and ridicule that he got for just trying "scare folks into giving him cheap coins"

Since Bitcoin only went down to $380, that proves what an idiot he is and that everyone is right to doubt his Bitcoin market reading acumen!

Must be my bad then, i will read them more carefully from now on, maybe i need a pair of glasses or something

What is meant by "final capitulation" in these circumstances? I take it you don't mean the actual completely death of bitcoin? Just the absolute bottom of a large crash, which precedes the next boom?

After 450, I called the 625 and 670 tops correctly. Then got caught by the uptrend, which in general fits the long-consolidation-before-capitulation prediction perfectly. Called that 800 will fail, which it did. Now calling a lower low before end of March, exactly the same as I have been saying all the time, same timeframe, same numbers. Of course this is only one scenario, but the one that I stand to gain the most if it happens.

Reading someone's predictions is difficult, especially if he is not a gambler but a position manager I take refuge in the fact that I have increased my bitcoin count by trading.

If that is the case, I've missed it, but of course no one is right all the time. For the last month I've been seeing him expect a return to the $400-$500 range, but giving a couple different scenarios, which was in line with the general pattern I've been trading after all the pops in bitcoins history. There has always been spikes, pops, and bulltrapy multi month stagnant zones that never quite get high enough before finally breaking down hitting the true bottom.