Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 331. (Read 907227 times)

I wonder if Gox is just stupid or very cunning with some hidden motives. It should've been obvious for them that blaming bitcoin in general would backfire hard.

Even the basic "Withdrawals still do not work, its technical problems on our end, we are fixing them" update would work better for them in the long run. But instead they've decided to point fingers and spread the fud, knowing that it would cause a crash and damage their reputation even more.

Im sure there were people capitulating on that news, rpietila being one of them. but I dont think those investors alone are enough to carry the price higher for longer, because I think investors are very timid at this point. that spike took out all the orders between 600 and 100..... there was really very little in the way relative to what you would expect.
There are many investors that dont have the confidence to discard the fallacies presented by Gox, rich chinese and wall street fat cats are not always the brightest. besides, is there anything really bullish about to affect the price? not for the next couple of weeks. Speculators have only negative aspects to dwell on.

I think the bull run was impressive, Im interested if it passes 750, but Im not taking it seriously. this too easy for happy go lucky speculators...... they are cheering in the troll box.

Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.

Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.

I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.

It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.

Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.

I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.

Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.

We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.  

Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?

it's not a theory, it's proven.. basic sheeple psychology... you notice there is not much buying even now that bitcoin is somewhat cheaper than it was a week ago.. i gotta admit so far Risto had been spot on many times and the more i look from his perspective the better i understand the market movement and how crowd reacts to it... his trendline analysis is getting interesting... also on top of that it's human psychology 101: once coins shoot up to 800 noobs start seeing 670 as "cheap" and regret it... once it drops to 500 they tend to either panic sell or try to wait for even more drips eventually giving in to bull trap and panic buying on uptrend...frankly took me sometime to discipline myself and avoid a few bull traps myself...

It seems to me that you are echoing the forum's feelings.
Then if most people are saying: "I don't trust the price increase anymore, I'm hoping to buy lower" that might as well be a contrary indicator that we have bottomed already.

(in which case I am personally annoyed at pulling my bids just few hours before yesterday's armageddon)

rpietila, what's your call?

The demand is suspicious,
either the spike has triggered some kind of opportunistic and coordinated insider buying (I doubt it) or it is building up for a healthy correction/continuation. I doubt we will pass 740 tonight. I am looking for 600.

What I actually see on Bitstamp are massive buys of big chunks of coins.
Someone just buys every wall on the way up. I wonder if this is a bulltrap ...

If this continues we are at 1000$ by Friday.
This doesn't look healthy to me.

Thanks
W

It seems that all of you are saying that the price will drop towards 400$ on the short term. Then when do you think would be the best time to buy some BTC for a newcomer? I've been following this thread with great interest. I currently own 2 BTC and my plan was to buy 16 more on Friday. Then I saw the plunge, then I said to wait a bit and see how it stabilises.

I like your style!  

drugs are baaaaaaad. wait, which drugs? The ones which are illegal, of course!

You can learn a lot about a particular society by observing which drugs it forbids and which ones it promotes. What about "our" culture? Promotes: red meat, sugar, caffeine (so you can be a productive obedient worker-drone), nicotine (so you can regulate the frantic pace and cool down a bit), alcohol (so you can get shitfaced and forget how miserable your life is) and tons of chemical drugs made by the white mafia (because business!). That stuff, which has never killed anyone, costs next to nothing to produce and might bend your perspective and induce original thinking? HOLY FUCK IT'S BAD IT SHOULD BE BANNED YOU DRUGGIES!

Bullshit, all bullshit. Big players want out. So they fake the market with the very USD that they received yesterday from the first wave of selling. How many times this has to happen before you realize? Ask Loaded for details, which he unfortunately cannot give you

Yeah, at best, large bid walls only give a small edge.
aint nobody wanna drive the market, let somebody else do it.

How about maybe Mark in the house of Gox isn't so idiotic after all? Might also been just a good plan of how to make Bitcoin look stronger and possibly spark a new rally. He runs an exchange (some sort) so he probably has an idea of how much money there is just sitting in exchanges in no bid walls or anything. So he releases news like that where he knows that it's not going to take more than 15minutes before some people explain what it is about and that it is not anything new or reason to go panic mode? But also by making up a flashcrash like that he maybe scares those sideline money people to put in bids and that's what we are seeing now?

It looks like more than just a rally. It's a huge fking bidwall, 8 million new dollars on the books, in front of the bottom, overnight. It just rose from a total of 15.5M to 16.5M as I was typing this, almost to ATH. Now the book looks completely warped into the bulls favor. How are you going to get through that? It's going to take an immense pressure, and that huge bid could be could be regenerating the whole time.

I felt fear yesterday. It wasn't fear about the price trend though. It was fear about a software bug and about exchanges running with my fiat. Is this something your service could help with?

very cunning theory!
I also imagine there will be a factor of greed in play after the spike. who would set a buy order at 400 when you can set it at 350? and why not 300? heck, lets try 250.

Based on the trendline analysis, yes. We have many long, agonizing weeks to go until it gets to be improbable according to the trendline. It is normal to have rallies based on false hopes, it is part of the capitulation process.

I think we saw the first signs of capitulation though, people losing faith in Bitcoin and quitting.

When it finally hits $400, you do not want to buy. You fear for it going to $200 and you losing 50% overnight. Then it is the time to buy

Personally I think it is 50/50.
the selling is getting heated up on BTCe,
the force has stopped driving the bull market for now,
whales that bought at 550 will take a bite of profit. I think we will stay below 730-40 tonight and therefore I think the bulls will stand back and edge their orders a bit lower. We will see soon if this is a bull trap. on a larger scale, it smells of one. on a shorter time scale however, that was a very impressive bull run.

Wow look at the orderbook on stamp and the massive buys yesterday. Still expecting it to trend into $400?

This is your brain on drugs.

Hmm. So wealthy powerful sharks highly interested in the pursuit of yet more wealth and yet more power operate in the conventional world of finance but not in Bitcoin...hrmmm interesting.

As much as you may think you hate the money powers behind the reigns of the petrodollar system, only if the rumours of the Rothchild's wealth are true, is the petrodollar system as thoroughly nailed and cornered beyond all reproach, as the Bitcoin system currently is. We have this entity called 'Satoshi' who is well known to possess 12% of all Bitcoin in existence. Over 1 million fkn coins! Satoshi could be the NSA for all we know. Stranger more convoluted things would have happened in world history.

If I believed that i was big enough to boss these markets around in a way that suited my goals, then i know for sure i would do it and i would succeed with it until bigger boys had some different ideas in their heads and made market moves that tipped the scales beyond my control, at which point, i may or may not make efforts to regain control. Seeing this doesn't require a 12 hour paranoid filled LSD trip or even much imagination....it just kind of like the way that markets work, especially highly cornered and ultra volatile markets like Bitcoin.

Dude. Obviously we are talking about these mysterious market "manipulators" that you are always bitching and screaming about that cheated you out of a fraction of a bitcoin on your last emotionally charged trade.