Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 334. (Read 907212 times)

You mean that the seller at 102$ did so because of margin call?

Margin long went wrong. Just like in December when LTC went to cents. Someone might shoot himself today.

WTF, 102? Did someone misclick?

I pretty much agree with this analysis, except that imo there is a >>0 chance that something (more) criminal (than we already know) is going on at Gox. This one was just a flashcrash, the -26% variety that is quite common if you study them. It ain't over until it's over.

I got some bids filled at 588, which puts me solidly on the black. The large bids are waiting + I am prepared for the crackdown on all exchanges and have money in the bank, silver in my private vault, and gold, also for the event that you want out of BTC in the middle of (the coming) carnage, and want to do it quickly and efficiently.

Because of Charles Shrem event, you will have to testify that you have never committed any crime, even victimless, ever, against any jurisdiction, lawful or not. Even then I may have to deny business with citizens or residents of the U.S. or any other country deemed high risk. (As we are incorporated in Estonia, Estonian laws apply. The above was just because the aforementioned countries have no regard for international law when disregarding them suits their puppetmasters' NWO agendas.)

Today's cigar is the venerable Cohiba Behike 56. I lighted up the big one because I wanted to share with you some good news. Only then realized that there's action going on in the markets and decided that I want to postpone the good news until the audience has opportunity to listen. Meanwhile, let's see what the next bad piece of news is...

I hesitate to resurrect the 'manipulator' meme but... That kind of sell, at a time when FUD is so high, reeks of an attempt to inject just a little more pessimism into a scared market.

I take that as a good sign. Of course, I would though

ye it was barely for a second, i personally thought it was bug @btcwisdom at first

I think it only dipped to 102 for a second, not many people who had bids around there would of had them even filled.

It happened because someone dumped 8000+ coins!

No just a panic induced knee jerk reaction based on Gox's news. The released a press statement, basically blaming the bitcoin protocl for their issues.
A truer way of putting it would have been to say that there is a known bug in the software / protocol, and that their custom wallet can't handle this properly.
They use their own custom wallet for storing bitoicns.. as you would expect from an exchange. It is this custom wallet tht cannot properly handle this bug.
No reason to panic, but that's what folks are bound to do.

It's not the real crash, since this was news based IMO.

I still expect to see $400's

the support after the crash to 102 was incredible. very volatile, but I wouldnt be surprised of this reaction to 630 if the evening had played out as I expected it.
I think in the next days we should expect it to explore 400-500. but right now.....holy moly. I have'nt a clue.

Bitstamp down to 530, then up to 630 again (in like 10 seconds), now 645
Guess i will panic buy a bit more bitcoins i want to have. What about you? Was this the crash

many people including myself are reporting unusually large delays in depositing bitcoin into BTCe this morning. The frustration seems high.
This, is a fine measure of sentiment. looks like we have an incoming flow of sellers.
nobody sells more erratically than a seller who is late to the party.

I'll take some 18 yr old Laphroaig single malt pls, ice and water on the side.

In a stable economy of large scale the average is effective at representing steady organic growth if too many speculators are not present. We can see the average with our eyes, we only use the tool for precision. I dont find it hard to understand why an average could be considered to be a 'fair' price. sometimes a fair price is the best you can ask for.

But I would agree that the coming crash could have unexpected potential, regardless of the fundamental innovation of bitcoin. I really do believe that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next man will pay, at this stage in the game. speculators are more likely to watch and see than place large, risky orders at 500. The larger speculators would know, never catch a falling knife. If the price is well tested after such a crash the reversal would then be swift.

There are a lot of happy go lucky speculators that are likely subject to panic at this stage - and not enough commercial demand.

It seems to me a really good solid cleansing comes from a deep retreat from the old high.

Do current newcomers look at the historic exchange rate (how far back?) or do they embrace the vision of Bitcoin et al?  To me the trend line is a mathematical illusion.  What force of nature (human psychology?) is powering the trend line?

Who is a newcomer?  Why did they come in?

That maybe 20%.

80% biggest reason is the trendline, which rises relentlessly, doubling every 99 days. It is just unlikely that it would go so deep below the trend. So if 2012 happens, we just grind at 800 (which is the new 5), and then slowly start to rise.


Yes, I speak from my own experience that I permanently took away from exchange in January much more money than I originally envisioned in November (because I got tired of waiting, and fiat has its uses, and keeping money in exchange is a risk). If other sellers have done the same, the buy support has just dwindled, and there are still the bulls waiting to panic and cause further drops in price.

Fuck ton from where?  China?  Russia?  rpietila is right that the longer the downtrend goes the more likely that this fuck ton of waiting money you speak of gets spent elsewhere.

How did you come up with the end of March as the last bound?

Is it because a 3/4 months bear market fits somehow with the one of the last bubble (April to July) or is there something else?

10BTC would be a nice, round number to have.

Ok, thanks! My most expensive coin is around 1050$ and cheapest is around 200$, I have never sold any and just bought when I have money. My stash is still small <10BTC but hopefully I can still buy some more with reasonable prices when I get to Finland and start working again, maybe around 2months from now. Just hate the winter and try to stay away until temperatures are tolerable again.

I've been saying since December that we have until end of March to consummate all this. Currently it looks like this month but could be the next also.

If we do not see $500 before end of March, it gets unlikely to see it ever. There will be ups and downs but if even the decisive down only goes to $700 it does not have the same meaning any more. (You can buy at $700 now, which the bulls some time ago regarded as impossible).

I think it goes to $500 and lower quite soon, but if this were 100% certain for all, we would be there already