rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 333.

neilol

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Quote from: sgbett on February 10, 2014, 05:01:15 PM

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though Wink

We are still seeing many posts like yours - sentiment is that Bitcoin might go lower in the interim - and THAT will be a good time to buy before it goes higher. It's still a net bullish stance. We need to start seeing posts that lost faith in Bitcoin as a whole, see it as a bad investment over any horizon/strategy etc.

Of course this all depends on how much weight you give to public forum sentiment... as Bitcoin becomes more popular / mainstream this will include a greater mix of new/old/manipulators, and will hold less.

chessnut

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Quote from: sgbett on February 10, 2014, 05:01:15 PM

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though Wink

the spike was great, now we know that A; there is big support at 100. B; there was nothing significant in the way of 4k-8k bitcoins.
I deem this means the larger players are/were taking a wait and see stance - bearish like you say.
That spike is actually something we all wanted to see, that there is a force backing this crypto, that it is not subject to uncontrollable crashses to zero.
So if you ask me it is clear that over the coming weeks the fall may take several days to explore 300-500 range. it will almost certainly not pass 100.
Im sure the trend will resume before the end of the year.

rpietila

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Quote from: sgbett on February 10, 2014, 05:01:15 PM

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice Wink

) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

sgbett

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It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though Wink

chessnut

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Quote from: rpietila on February 10, 2014, 03:09:30 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 10, 2014, 02:48:28 PM

Quote from: chessnut on February 10, 2014, 11:37:01 AM

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

After buying at was it 582, I went on to sell at 670. It is going down.

cheers for the feedback rpietila and eris,
It helps when you cant think straight after 24 hours without sleep. easy to make a bad move when one is wary.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: merkin51 on February 10, 2014, 01:45:42 PM

Do todays crazy events change any longterm bearish predictions? I had fiat waiting on BTC-E and, for some reason which right now I can't understand, I didn't buy in when it got down to the $500s. Still think we'll get back down there before we go up properly?

I can understand it. When the price is buoyant at over $1000 and heading up, everyone dreams of getting $500 Bitcoins again. When the market is decimating itself and the price is slashed down to the $500 range, the market psychology totally changes and these coins are no longer looking so appealing and unless you are a swing trader, neither should they.

rpietila

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Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 10, 2014, 02:48:28 PM

Quote from: chessnut on February 10, 2014, 11:37:01 AM

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

After buying at was it 582, I went on to sell at 670. It is going down.

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: chessnut on February 10, 2014, 11:37:01 AM

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

merkin51

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Do todays crazy events change any longterm bearish predictions? I had fiat waiting on BTC-E and, for some reason which right now I can't understand, I didn't buy in when it got down to the $500s. Still think we'll get back down there before we go up properly?

magicmexican

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Quote from: kehtolo on February 10, 2014, 11:57:19 AM

Quote from: kehtolo on February 10, 2014, 11:44:51 AM

And back to 700 in the next 15-30 min.. that is a good recovery.

Seeing as it was BS / FUD that caused it.. it is a healthy sign. The market is looking healthier than i gave it credit for.

Okay.. maybe slightly longer, but still.

That wall got partly bought, and then added to. Might be here for a little while.

688-700 is a 50% fibo level on stamp, there will be resistance there that wont be broken today/tomorrow, market needs to calm down and realize that gox was spreading fud to buy time, there is no "new bug" or anything close to double spending

kehtolo

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Quote from: kehtolo on February 10, 2014, 11:44:51 AM

And back to 700 in the next 15-30 min.. that is a good recovery.

Seeing as it was BS / FUD that caused it.. it is a healthy sign. The market is looking healthier than i gave it credit for.

Okay.. maybe slightly longer, but still.

That wall got partly bought, and then added to. Might be here for a little while.

threecats

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be interesting to see what happens to the 860 wall at 689 on stamp

kehtolo

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And back to 700 in the next 15-30 min.. that is a good recovery.

Seeing as it was BS / FUD that caused it.. it is a healthy sign. The market is looking healthier than i gave it credit for.

threecats

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i think this bounce is full of a pent up exuberence that may not be so very rooted in rationality ...

chessnut

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Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 10, 2014, 11:29:55 AM

Rpietilas call for a revisiting of the trendline during February/March is looking more and more probable. Whatever you might think about his online persona, or his trading abilities, you have to give him credit for sticking with his call even though he was heavily ridiculed for it at first.

I wonder if the pattern of repeating previous price movements on a compressed time-scale with lower ups and downs will hold and we will see a slow grind into the 400 - 500$ area over the next month or so, before finally capitulating.

I'm really enjoying this bear market. I'm not day tarding, not even firing very much fiat at it. But whereas during the last bear market all I heard from my friends was "haha I told you so Bitcoin is useless", now I see them buying their first coins, because they find the current prices much more acceptable than the heights of december.

do you happen to be watching the charts now?
what do you think about this bounce? pretty good? will it last? seems threatening.
not sure I have the guts to hold shotr.

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Rpietilas call for a revisiting of the trendline during February/March is looking more and more probable. Whatever you might think about his online persona, or his trading abilities, you have to give him credit for sticking with his call even though he was heavily ridiculed for it at first.

I wonder if the pattern of repeating previous price movements on a compressed time-scale with lower ups and downs will hold and we will see a slow grind into the 400 - 500$ area over the next month or so, before finally capitulating.

I'm really enjoying this bear market. I'm not day tarding, not even firing very much fiat at it. But whereas during the last bear market all I heard from my friends was "haha I told you so Bitcoin is useless", now I see them buying their first coins, because they find the current prices much more acceptable than the heights of december.

mmitech

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things you own end up owning you

I still owe you an apology, I don't know if this flash crash counts but I am a man of his word, I didn't see this coming so I do apologize for the last couple of months and I hope that Gox will die....I took a considerable loss because of them, not trading there didn't save me from their BS, I just hope that it wont be even worse...

at this moment I don't hold any bitcoins, not because I sold out but because I invested 80% in IPOs and startups and cashed the other 20%, but to be honest I don't have balls to buy back now, I just wish you all traders out there good luck.

chessnut

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