rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 351.

rpietila

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be Sad

rpietila

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Quote from: windjc on January 13, 2014, 02:27:30 AM

He will buy some more after we go to ATHs. After all, he thinks we are going to $1 million. He would be silly not to buy more if he has the fiat to.

The wisest choice would have been to delete your post, just because it tends to degenerate the thread to endless and fruitless debate over my investment decisions. One of the reasons this was started is that you can keep discussing about me in Adam's wall observer.

Why is it fruitless? Because I already have my own strategy, I have told it to you (buy back some at <$400 if it is visited, otherwise nothing).

Why is it endless? Because I have said that 400 can happen any time before March, and probably only in June I will remove the bids, giving it up and keeping the fiat. The average attention span here is hours, not months.

So there is no point in asking every time it goes up/down, if I have bought or will soon buy back. What determines my buyback is the price, not the time. We have had this same talk numerous times, and could have it many more times, but it does not add anything, nor change anything. I am past the point of having the highest number of bitcoins that I will ever have (probably).

So how about everyone adding something of value to the discussion?

windjc

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Quote from: traderCJ on January 13, 2014, 02:26:19 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 12, 2014, 09:47:24 AM

Quote from: TERA on January 11, 2014, 07:38:04 PM

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.

Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Oh brother Roll Eyes

By your argument, there is no unprofitable trade because you can just wait for the price to move in your favor over an infinite time scale. Beware listening to this guy.

He will buy some more after we go to ATHs. After all, he thinks we are going to $1 million. He would be silly not to buy more if he has the fiat to.

traderCJ

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Quote from: rpietila on January 12, 2014, 09:47:24 AM

Quote from: TERA on January 11, 2014, 07:38:04 PM

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.

Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Oh brother Roll Eyes

By your argument, there is no unprofitable trade because you can just wait for the price to move in your favor over an infinite time scale. Beware listening to this guy.

DieJohnny

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

Uhhh... rpietila might have more coins by morning...

hyphymikey

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

Do you get cigars for free? Or do you just like wasting money? lol

notme

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Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on January 12, 2014, 12:23:45 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? Grin

If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

It's hard to collect on a bet against "never".

TERA

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Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on January 12, 2014, 12:23:45 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? Grin

If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

Excluding the inevitable crash to $0 of course.

xxnewbiecoinerxx

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on January 12, 2014, 11:01:44 AM

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? Grin

If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

Ivanhoe

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Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

rpietila

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Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on January 12, 2014, 09:54:35 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 12, 2014, 09:47:24 AM

Quote from: TERA on January 11, 2014, 07:38:04 PM

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.

Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Has your confidence in 500ish boosted in the last days? It seems that right now we are following the April`s crash pattern. Lowest point maybe mid Feb.?

I have been busy with other matters, and have not updated the analysis on price. It is not a big deal really - if it goes to my buy zone, I wake up and see that I have bought. If not, I will keep the cash. I am not buying anything above 500 for sure, that zone is for newbies Wink

xxnewbiecoinerxx

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Quote from: rpietila on January 12, 2014, 09:47:24 AM

Quote from: TERA on January 11, 2014, 07:38:04 PM

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.

Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Has your confidence in 500ish boosted in the last days? It seems that right now we are following the April`s crash pattern. Lowest point maybe mid Feb.?

rpietila

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Merit: 1036

Quote from: TERA on January 11, 2014, 07:38:04 PM

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.

Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

TERA

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Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

michaelGedi

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"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 10, 2014, 07:29:37 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on January 10, 2014, 05:16:07 PM

Quote from: aminorex on January 10, 2014, 10:28:54 AM

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak. It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .

The diagram is shared here.

PFFFT. You didn't really even try... And two dimensions is just so "pre ASIC".

much clearer, thank you

cAPSLOCK

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Whimsical Pants

Quote from: SlipperySlope on January 10, 2014, 05:16:07 PM

Quote from: aminorex on January 10, 2014, 10:28:54 AM

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak. It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .

The diagram is shared here.

PFFFT. You didn't really even try... And two dimensions is just so "pre ASIC".

thoughtfan

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Quote from: SlipperySlope on January 10, 2014, 05:16:07 PM

Quote from: aminorex on January 10, 2014, 10:28:54 AM

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak. It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .

The diagram is shared here.

I like that a lot thank you

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: aminorex on January 10, 2014, 10:28:54 AM

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak. It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .

The diagram is shared here.

bambou

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Quote from: aminorex on January 10, 2014, 10:28:54 AM

more use = more flow = more liquidity = more price discovery = less volatility = more confidence = more demand = higher price

FTFY.

Sounds credible/logical to me though

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak. It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 351. (Read 907212 times)