Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 350. (Read 907212 times)

This roughly matches my philosophy also, I try to sell as high as possible after I believe the pop is more than just a flash crash, I often wait months after the big crashes to buy back in again in a real way. Usually you can buy back in substantially cheaper.

I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014

So do you still think that we visit ~500$ as we're now close to the second top??

I for one greatly appreciate you spending your time with us. Agree or not, it gets our wheels
turning on what we want to do.

But you need to change the thread title. I giggle everytime I read "TA"!  lol

Exactly my move. Its what happens after a pop and between the next bubble that fascinates me, and is simply the best way to take profits in a condition you clearly know is over bought (shit just popped last month, what better hint can one get) and still take profits in and area that is still well above the MA.

Flash crashing in 2 weeks dosnt give people time to think and react so the market has to let people think and doubt and revisit support levels to instil confidence before moving to the next level. Its almost too logical. This is why this weeks candle looks loke a Doji. Its exactly how the market feels right now, uncertain if we should go down or up. Its easier to test down then it is to test up.

Too many people got "wealthy" really quickly" The market will allow them to rethink holding any longer after seeing the crash. This is usually reflected by a period of decline after a pop. ]

I also believe BTC will go to $100,000 easy BUT at the same time know the majority of speculators DO NOT and am not nieve to overlook their emotions when making my plays.

Personally, I only believe in two scenarios for bitcoin.  a) to da moon wherever the moon is b) Zero.
Simply because as it is now, BTC is just a small niche for speculators ... Banana market is larger

If 50BTC is same as 100BTC, then 30BTC is too, in terms of utility at moon level. Hence I see it more rewarding to wait for a dip (that can happen quickly) than panic buy at ATH (which is much slower to reach). That's I guess is your strategy.

Thanks for the advises. I think I will go back all-in btc with the fiat I have, and invest more of my savings only when there is a serious dip.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

any figures highlighting your analysis plz?

Ive been looking at the weekly candle chart . Seems its best time to buy when theres 4 weeks of red AND or Bitcoin touches the 30 Week EMA.

Just before each run up theres 4-5 red candles and the 30 week EMA line gets tested which right now sits at $475 and decreasing its accent. I would play the 30 week EMA. its bound to get tested before thing substantial happens

I think the scenario analysis helps. Let's say that you have $85k = BTC100 if fully invested, and you would "like" to invest $50k at 500 so that you could have BTC100 and have some fiat left over. What can conceivably happen?

- Bitcoin just rises and rises to the moon, and you still have $85k and no coins.
- Bitcoin rises and you panic buy at some higher amount, for example $1,000, get BTC50 and retain $35k.
- Bitcoin crashes and your bid fulfills at $500, and you retain your $35k.
- Bitcoin goes to zero.

From here on, it is up to your personal preferences. Try to think about utility, and not fear and greed. For example, if bitcoin actually goes to the moon without stopping, it is nice to have BTC100 but perhaps BTC50 or even BTC25 would give almost the same utility, since they are so valuable. But if it goes to zero, or crashes towards it viciously, it is much better to have $35k than $0 as your cash balance.

I aim to keep my bitcoin position in 60-80% range. If it goes over, I sell and diversify. This also helps in the pullbacks, it is both easier to sleep after having cashed out, and also makes it possible to reinvest into bitcoin if it tanks hard with no fundamental reason.

It does not really matter what your allocation is now, and whether you are "in the process of a trade going sour" or not. Just decide where you want to be, should any of the scenarios happen. If possible, try to think which one of them is more probable, but do not neglect any of them. Then buy/sell your bitcoins so that the position is most suitable for everything.

If everything that can happen is something you have already planned for, you do well in all situations and cannot really lose. This is wise position management, and opposite to gambling. Even prediction has very little to do with this.

@rpietilla I followed your bearish call by turning 100% fiat. The reason is that I need to increase my bitcoin position, not by greed, but because I lost many coins during december crash, and that sucks .. I feel like the only sucka who lost money there.

The other option I have is investing more of my savings (currently 50%) at $800. This scares the shit out of me.

Now, day after day it seems that > $800 is becoming a norm, and I could hardly see why people won't buy bellow, even at $700 (unless they think it's going further down). Thus I am hesitating to go back all-in right now.

Worst of all, I expect a major trap (either way) end of January caused by manipulation. Because so many people are in my situation right now and manipulators will take advantage of this state of mind.

I have a purpose why I write these things, it is either to learn, teach or have fun. Your continued pestering in Adam's thread made it difficult for me to do any of these. Every time I posted something, you would derail it from the issue to some of my personal quality or quantity. It looked very stupid that you among the hundreds that regularly read the thread, could not even understand my prominent position in bitcoin economy, and distracted the lurkers that are my main audience anyway. So I provided proof that I have 50 times higher trading volume than you have in Bitstamp, after which you promised to apologize. I sent further proof about successful trades in Mt.Gox, but instead of apology, I received more insult.

Now, I am not sure how to behave towards people whose turnover is 50 times bigger than mine, ie. approximately 700 million dollars per month. Such people do not even exist in Bitcoin. But certainly I would try to weigh my words very carefully to respect those people's high position and to maximize the learning benefit I get from the encounter. If I have wronged them by behaving stupidly, I would be quick to apologize after learning my wrongs.

According to research, people - rich and poor alike - are able to maintain only about 150 acquaintanceships. It is not always the case that the rich are pompous asses, but they do have it considerably harder regarding whom to let in their inner circle, and even whom to interact with at all. Every person has the same amount of time, but the rich have many more opportunities to choose from. I have chosen to share my insights here, and will do it as long as it serves any purpose. You are currently banned from my threads, because I see no purpose in interacting with someone who promised and owes an apology and refuses to fulfil it.


This is an example of how I would like to be addressed.

All probabilities are against me that it would even go to 600. So I would be delighted to have gifts if it goes below 500 intraday in Bitstamp. If the year passes without this happening, the remaining stash makes me so rich that I can send gifts to my friends

My taste is "traditional Cuban" - aromatic, balanced, not very strong. The cigar needs to be big (thick) enough to realize the flavour, petit corona (44) size is the minimum. Usually I buy the top end of the range and only a few at a time though, because I never know when I develop a new hobby...

Not really Except that personally I don't like to see me in a position where buying back at a loss is the wisest choice (regardless of the future price development). Therefore I don't get into that kind of position, and I am not now in such a position. Actually only once in my life I have bought back at a loss. This was at $195 after selling some at $130, and was obviously a stellar decision. Selling at 130 was the misinformed decision.

My "problem" now is that after analyzing the exchange rate developments from April to this day, I still regard it as quite possible that we see a crash to 400. It will require a negative event, but there are many negative events in store for Bitcoin


I am trying to get the thread back to the discussion of other people's investment strategies. If we keep on discussing of my position only, it gets tiresome, because the position is quite slow moving. Even if you suddenly see 400, you can just be "yawn, wonder whether rpietila got 60% or 70% of his maximum buyback of coins and whether he is now 60% or 70% invested). I am sure many of you have more interesting things to show! Sorry if that sounded like patronizing 

If the wisest choice was to delete my post, why did you not delete it? Hmmm.

At any rate, I ASSUMED based on your previous posts that you invest $$$ from time to time for others that you know. I assume they would at some points ask your advice/consulting on when to buy.

I assume you would not tell them, ONLY AT or below $500, especially if we go to ATHs. I assume you would buy back above ATHs because you have stated repeatedly that you think bitcoin value will be 7 figures.

Am I wrong about any of this?

And if I am not, why are you so eager to patronize me? Enough with your silly pointless condescension.

No kidding....how the hell can we take this thread seriously? Its like "oh my prediction was completely wrong? Its ok, because no matter what I spew from my mouth I make money".

Good grief.

What do you propose as Bitstamp price?

If ever I send you a gift, the price will be determined in Bitstamp

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is