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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 349. (Read 907227 times)

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
No cigars for some time now - see, they don't even cause addiction, like the shigarettes do.. Tongue

The price, volume and general interest in Bitcoin seem to follow the pattern established with the previous bubble burst. If May-June 2013 is any guide, we would hold these levels still for some time and then drift lower. Then we would start to see dips, followed by recoveries, but always to lower levels. The final capitulation after which we permanently move on to new levels would happen in February-March. The bottom price is anybody's guess. Without news it will be higher than with news.

In other words, nothing has changed in my evaluation from 8.12.2013, except that I regard the main scenario as increasingly likely, the more time we spend in price apathy, low volume, and dwindling interest. For a person who would like to increase position moderately, things look good Smiley

Some oldtimers may remember the time when my supernode was active. It was dissolved in May 2013, but I did set the procedure on how to reactivate the supernode and start to do some serious rockin'-the-world. We are having the General Supernode Meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, starting tomorrow. After a few days we will be sufficiently enlightened to decide whether the current powers are sufficient, or whether activation is expedient. (It is also possible that there is a completely different solution.) The reactivation is tied to a matter of purchasing suitable premises, which practically means a castle.

On the other hand, I promised not to start with the Supernode Network before the price hits $1.4. It's ok, it will not be that many months away, and the castles always require repairs before active use...  Grin
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

You only make money if you sell. Where you selling?

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780

I'm good with that. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I buy more cheap coins.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 11
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780

I'm good with that. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I buy more cheap coins.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?

If $815 dosnt hold see yah at $780
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
I was using the 61.8 Fib retrace level
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 11
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815

You called it TBF,

Do you see it dipping any lower or is this the resistance?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.



The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that we are hurtling through space on a tiny rock and we only have the illusion of control.  It is easier to make up stories about how some powerful entity is controlling things than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans, is at the mercy of the universe.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I see $816 stamp by Jan 17 ( 2 days)

Current $844

No wait I called $816 ha

Sittin at $815
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I declare victory on 830.  Still holding to 918.


my 811 call almost there
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100


I think the error bars around the physical gold supply are much larger than commonly supposed.  People like certainty, and will seize upon a number with little regard for its provenance.


True, true.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
Raw unsubstantiated predictions, phrased as attractor points in price x time space:

830 USD@stamp by 0600 UTC 17 Jan 2014

918 USD@stamp by 0000 UTC 24 Jan 2014


I declare victory on 830.  Still holding to 918.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
How do they manage to continue the manipulation if all the gold has gone to china?

Naked shorting futures seems to do the job.  Draining the ETFs helps.

I think the error bars around the physical gold supply are much larger than commonly supposed.  People like certainty, and will seize upon a number with little regard for its provenance.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 500
📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA
The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

Hi granathus, I used to believe the same but have since changed my view on the whole manipulation debate. Sure, the price of gold is "manipulated" but so are all other commodities, currencies and stocks on the market. Manipulation is just another word for "trading for profit making". The price of gold is not determined by supply & demand but by the market and what drives markets is sentiment. Plus, if you think that gold has risen for over a decade, one shouldn't be surprised to see a large correction before the trend reverses back. I think we may see something similar with Bitcoin but in a shorter time-frame.

How do they manage to continue the manipulation if all the gold has gone to china? They cant even give Germany back their gold so the vaults must be pretty empty by now.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/monkey-business-surrounding-the-repatriation-of-germanys-gold-stored-at-the-ny-federal-reserve-bank/5364090
sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 250
The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

Hi granathus, I used to believe the same but have since changed my view on the whole manipulation debate. Sure, the price of gold is "manipulated" but so are all other commodities, currencies and stocks on the market. Manipulation is just another word for "trading for profit making". The price of gold is not determined by supply & demand but by the market and what drives markets is sentiment. Plus, if you think that gold has risen for over a decade, one shouldn't be surprised to see a large correction before the trend reverses back. I think we may see something similar with Bitcoin but in a shorter time-frame.
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.



The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

Oh, "you" can, if you are the central bank.
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.



The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.
sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 250
Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.

hero member
Activity: 833
Merit: 1001
dude if you're the sensitive type then don't read his thread it's simple as that or find yourself some place else. Personally i don't see any issues in his character.. Now i don't speak for majority, others may have different opinions so what's important to me is people like him still find time to post valuable insights and sometimes it's just interesting to view things from his perspective... also whenever people bitch about how wealthy someone is it just sounds more like jealousy and envy...

I am sure that people will add valuable inputs when you stop talking about your self, so you wont give the the chance to attack your character,  another important key of productive discussion is to admit your mistakes without turning the direction of discussion about how loaded and rich you are, this is not a moral thing to do and I, one of the people, am sensitive when it comes to people egos, no matter how good is your input, you can ruin it with one word and you lose your audience.

people are not here to read about how much do you have, you can tell your friends and family about that, but are here to get different opinions, the other thing that I did notice is that you ask people to write something of value backed with calculations but even you don't back your posts with any scientific facts rather than words " my calculation" ..... show people how did you calculate, I am sure that there is plenty of us who are good at math...

I am really curious what kind of education you do have ? usually it is people who failed their in education adopt this way of discussion and try to cover (hide) behind their material winnings but usually their ego expose them and make them an easy target...

delete my post and you once again prove me right Wink
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000


If you sell here do not lose sleep of being left behind

I encourage anyone to look at the weekly chart. I have looked at ever bubble pop / crash / bounce since the beginning and have noticed that anyone you sells above the 7 week moving average post bubble pop bounce CAN REBUY THEIR POSITION for less that they sold for if not substantially less at a later time. Look at the chart yourself. If you sell here don't lose sleep that the train will take off without you.

Now if you sold below the blue line it may be a different story. But it should put alot of ease to people thinking about closing their position (with intention to re-open) currently.

I think this is along the same lines as my trading philosophy. Sell when it has popped and is still obviously high. Buy back near the 30WMA. Naturally always have some of the coins in cold storage because of exchange risk.

This roughly matches my philosophy also, I try to sell as high as possible after I believe the pop is more than just a flash crash, I often wait months after the big crashes to buy back in again in a real way. Usually you can buy back in substantially cheaper.

That is fine ... only if you compare volume SOLD and BOUGHT then you can see how many bough back.
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