In a post you made in this thread earlier today, you said you expected a pretty straight breakout to $500 on Stamp.
It seems like this would be the time for it?
I did expect a strong movement. It hasn't materialized. (But when I said "next leg down" I meant the next movement, not necessarily the large-scale C wave.) That mean's I'm starting to gradually lose faith in the predictive capacity of that specific wave analysis. It won't be categorically refuted soon unless we exceed 880, at which point there is no way to defend it, or we stay below 880 stamp but we fail to take a *major* leg down before the end of the month -- mid-February at the latest. Levels are usually quite a bit easier to predict than timing.
I'll expand on that. In these fora there is always the threat that someone might blindly follow your comments, often misinterpreted, and hurt themselves. Let not my lack of disclosure mislead anyone:
My best luck trading on my own technical analysis has been in picking a direction, and sticking with it until it plays out to some sort of maturity. Essentially all of that experience was in equity, commodity, fx and rates. I am relatively new to BTC, and my history with technical analysis has been a *losing* one so far, applied to BTC: I would have done better to buy and hold 100% from day one. I would have more coins. If you trade with me, you trade with a proven BTC loser. I am here to learn from rpietila and other successful BTC traders.
That said, I've done quite well in predicting price trajectories in other markets where I have had more experience, and I am generally well-versed in most forms of technical fundamental and quantitative analytics, so I think I may have useful input. When I do comment, I will try to enunciate my uncertainties and cast estimates in terms of distributional topologies, although accurately expressing such in these small margins is quixotic at best. In your mixture model I should be a weakly weighted oracle. Better yet, my comments should only serve as an occasion for you to entertain their concepts in your own independent analysis.
My current position is 60% cold store. I have a 30% short swap position capitalized in 30% BTC and 10% fiat which I am gently masticating into a higher basis during this sideway action, but if it does not start to gain substantial value soon, I will bias my mastications towards exit of the position. Exactly when will depend on current evidence, as always.
I often don't do what I would advise others to do. It's generally best to position yourself for a continuation of the current trend, as soon as you can recognize it as a new trend, and get out (in my risk ideology, out means out of fiat) as soon as your pre-established exit criteria have been met. Trying to anticipate a turn is likely to cost you. Unless you are willing and able to endure those costs repeatedly until success, it's a foolish waste of time and energy.
My great sadness with BTC is the lack of asymmetric hedging instruments. It forces me into levels of risk I have not previously endured. To achieve my goals will require substantial risk, so I will often do things I would not advise others to do. Few people if any are under such compulsion as I. Almost everyone has the moral option not to trade at all, for that matter, and for most people it is the best option.
