Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 352. (Read 907227 times)
What kind of influence might Overstock have on the price short/mid-term?
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What sites are you using for TA and why?
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Here is my list, sure you will be able to find *something* useful in here...:
Marketdata - Bitcoin Chain
BTCWisdom
Bitcoinity
Bitcoin Watch
Bitcoin network graphs
Coinometrics
RTBTC
Coinorama
Bitcoin charts
Preev
Tradingview
Bitcoin ticker
Bitcoin Pulse
BTCLook
Biteasy (Block explorer)
You might like to start with trading hill and rtbtc from the sounds of it though?
and if you don't now have the stash you think you need, I would suggest taking a second job or finding some other way of making extra cash to put into btc ASAP, rather than trading to build your holding. Despite all the smart people in this thread and others, only the best traders (and you know who you are) are able to do this consistently. Just MHO..
I warmly recommend this also. If you are reading this, you know enough about bitcoin already. Now go to work, earn money and buy as many bitcoins as you can during the next 6-12 months. Then start reading forums again
In terms of market cap, just the Bitcoin currency (ignoring its obvious value as a payment network/p2p ledger) could roughly be compared to the current M2 USD supply (~$10 trillion) plus total value of gold mined on the planet (~$8 trillion). A $1MM BTC price would give a total possible market cap of ~$21 trillion, ignoring lost coins. Not too far off.
You are making my point for me. Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.
As little as 8 months ago the value of gold alone ($300k) was considered insane by most. The thread outlining the $1M scenario (actually it is $5M but it is adequately triggered when the price reaches $1M) gives more background.
Hello guys,
I have a few questions which I think might help us all:
1) Maybe it would be little bit offtopic from your thread, but it's TA thread after all?
And in order to get quality TA you should have a proper tool for that.
What sites are you using for TA and why?
I think the best source for graphs (mostly for intraday, though) is bitcoinwisdom.com
though, there is several other projects which might be good too (but I didn't find a good use for it)
https://www.bigterminal.com/chart/currency/BTCUSD/ <- Gox based
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD <- average BTC price
I'll add few other sites I have from home.
Still, these sites not good enough for analyzing historical data.
I tried to use MT4 terminal from BTC-e but they seem to have own limitations as well.
Bitcoinwisdom is great for analysis, especially with it volume tool. But you should be very cautious for the volume.
If candle was red, then they color up whole volume is red, while it's actually could be quite wrong (say, for the start of M15 candle someone can buy 500 btc on "dry" market triggering price from 800 to 820 and if there is small order book, ex rate could actually go to 790 with like 150 BTC until end of the M15 preiod - in that way, all volume for M15 candle would be red, but actual volume was more "green").
Is there a website which tracks for the consolidated "true" volume of trades?
2) Considering short term or intraday- looking for H1 chart for bitstamp(@bitcoinwisdom) - we can see there is bunch of big red candles with big volume but price didn't get lower. For me it seems like sellers don't want to crash price but rather allow it to get higher and sell in several portions, instead of big dump.
If that's correct, then we should expect a bigger dump - cause whales want to dump some coins on a better price before actual bigger dump.
From the other hand, these volumes could be quite irrelevant in a mid term. Whats your opinion?
I have a few questions which I think might help us all:
1) Maybe it would be little bit offtopic from your thread, but it's TA thread after all?
And in order to get quality TA you should have a proper tool for that.
What sites are you using for TA and why?
I think the best source for graphs (mostly for intraday, though) is bitcoinwisdom.com
though, there is several other projects which might be good too (but I didn't find a good use for it)
https://www.bigterminal.com/chart/currency/BTCUSD/ <- Gox based
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD <- average BTC price
I'll add few other sites I have from home.
Still, these sites not good enough for analyzing historical data.
I tried to use MT4 terminal from BTC-e but they seem to have own limitations as well.
Bitcoinwisdom is great for analysis, especially with it volume tool. But you should be very cautious for the volume.
If candle was red, then they color up whole volume is red, while it's actually could be quite wrong (say, for the start of M15 candle someone can buy 500 btc on "dry" market triggering price from 800 to 820 and if there is small order book, ex rate could actually go to 790 with like 150 BTC until end of the M15 preiod - in that way, all volume for M15 candle would be red, but actual volume was more "green").
Is there a website which tracks for the consolidated "true" volume of trades?
2) Considering short term or intraday- looking for H1 chart for bitstamp(@bitcoinwisdom) - we can see there is bunch of big red candles with big volume but price didn't get lower. For me it seems like sellers don't want to crash price but rather allow it to get higher and sell in several portions, instead of big dump.
If that's correct, then we should expect a bigger dump - cause whales want to dump some coins on a better price before actual bigger dump.
From the other hand, these volumes could be quite irrelevant in a mid term. Whats your opinion?
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
Wrap your mind around the notion that Bitcoin is a superior currency to existing fiat and will replace it economically. Here are still-relevant reasons authored by Rick Falkvinge that appealed to me back in 2011. . .
The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000
Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part One - Unlawful Trade
Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Two - International Trade
Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Three - Merchant Trade
Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Four - Investment
Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.
It's not fantastic if there are no USD. The stock is not important to the value of a currency. The circulating supply determines the "market cap".
In terms of market cap, just the Bitcoin currency (ignoring its obvious value as a payment network/p2p ledger) could roughly be compared to the current M2 USD supply (~$10 trillion) plus total value of gold mined on the planet (~$8 trillion). A $1MM BTC price would give a total possible market cap of ~$21 trillion, ignoring lost coins. Not too far off.
You are making my point for me. Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.
Keep in mind that $1MM USD may or may not be as valuable as you think in the future. It's an arbitrary number. 1 XBT is worth 100,000 Yen right now but the right question is how much real purchasing power that represents.
You are also making my point, and what you describe would requite such social upheaval I personally hope it doesn't happen.
I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
Do any of you guys who only use "10% of coins for trading and 90% in cold storage" or whatever the ratio is find it frustrating every time you double up the 10% but missed the opportunity to double up the rest of the 90%? If I did such a thing it would feel like a huge loss to me.
Good question. This is exactly what I do. 90 cold/10 trade...I have a large enough stash of coins accumulated over the last couple of years, that I really do not feel I need to make much addition. So your question works the other way for me. I find the 10% trading account, keeps my greed/fear and active mind from disturbing my longer term investment strategy. I trade very cautiously with the 10% and only risk coins when I am very confident. For example I sold into fiat at the double top in December and bought back at about 450. Very good trade for me and made a nice addition to my cold store. And I did not sell anything when RP was making his case that we are going much lower after we recovered to midpoint. Although I agree that we are likely going to slide lower for some time now, I not confident enough in this to risk coins - and I am comfortable riding out whatever consolidation we encounter. This all has served me well and has slowly increased my total coins. So far so good.
I rarely listen to the noise from the day traders and I discount most of what I read here as well, although I take it all in and appreciate it. I have been watching this market daily for 2.5 years, so I have a pretty good feel for the big patterns and moves, and have been trading equities and options for more than 10 years as a hobby.
Bottom line, it all depends on your current situation and goals. And of course how good a trader you are. So no advice from anyone can really address what you are facing yourself. We must all find a trading/investing style that matches our personality and skill/knowledge base. No one size fits all. That said, for most of us, holding coins is the best answer - and whatever you have to do to actually practice that is the key.
and if you don't now have the stash you think you need, I would suggest taking a second job or finding some other way of making extra cash to put into btc ASAP, rather than trading to build your holding. Despite all the smart people in this thread and others, only the best traders (and you know who you are) are able to do this consistently. Just MHO..
US-centric model is poor. Global GDP is about 46 tln USD. With 15 mln BTC (for a while) and V=6, that gives 1 BTC ~= USD 4.4mln.
We can reduce M due to saving, since saving is appealing. Perhaps 1.5 mln BTC actually circulate. But 100% of GDP is unrealistic. Maybe 25% of GDP is the maximum feasible penetration. Then 1 BTC ~= 11 mln USD.
Thats probably the top-end, at least until the economy can start to grow meaningfully in real terms per BTC, around the year 2035.
If we start to mine asteroids, and population grows, there's no upper bound really.
We can reduce M due to saving, since saving is appealing. Perhaps 1.5 mln BTC actually circulate. But 100% of GDP is unrealistic. Maybe 25% of GDP is the maximum feasible penetration. Then 1 BTC ~= 11 mln USD.
Thats probably the top-end, at least until the economy can start to grow meaningfully in real terms per BTC, around the year 2035.
If we start to mine asteroids, and population grows, there's no upper bound really.
So a serious question/comment.
I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
Keep in mind that $1MM USD may or may not be as valuable as you think in the future. It's an arbitrary number. 1 XBT is worth 100,000 Yen right now but the right question is how much real purchasing power that represents. I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
Good post. Cheers RP.
So a serious question/comment.
I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
I assume you will get some better quality responses in this thread, but to put it in a macro perspective:
In terms of market cap, just the Bitcoin currency (ignoring its obvious value as a payment network/p2p ledger) could roughly be compared to the current M2 USD supply (~$10 trillion) plus total value of gold mined on the planet (~$8 trillion). A $1MM BTC price would give a total possible market cap of ~$21 trillion, ignoring lost coins. Not too far off.
In this scenario, which is being given a decent probability on this forum, Fiat money systems have essentially failed and are massively devalued as BTC takes over as the main world reserve currency. Separation of money and state.
So a serious question/comment.
I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
I see the number 1,000,000 tossed around frequently. I also see many scenarios that are that fantastic seemingly considered as serious possibilities.
If this is the "quality" TA thread does it not knock down the quality a bit when the million dollar number and things like it get tossed around?
Even if it's tongue in cheek it seems to be so overly fantastic as to undermine so much of the good analysis that goes on.
A corollary: Assuming there are bulls here who seriously think $1MM/BTC is a real possibility would someone give me a good argument as to how this is possible.
I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD. I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.
I want to underline that I think 99% of the people should not pay attention to the short term fluctuations of the price. At the instant when you are ready to buy in, do it. Then only accumulate the position whenever you feel like it and don't sell (regardless if you feel like it or not). Then after you are sure it does not make sense for you to buy more (because you already have so many that having more would not matter), construct a diversification schedule to sell a fraction every time the price reaches a certain milestone. Make it such that you have a comfortable number of bitcoins left when the price reaches $1 million. If you have BTC10 now, I advocate to sell anything between BTC5-BTC9 during the runup. Make the plan, and stick to it. After you have started selling, I don't advice to buy back even if the price goes down. Enjoy your gains rather.
More great advice.
Accordingly I prepared 36 paper wallets to spend monthly for the next three years, each computed to draw down the then-current bitcoin balance by 0.85%. About 73% of my original bitcoin stake will remain after three years when and if the log trend reaches the $1 million price.
Yesterday was the venerable Behike 56, today something less. Chaga tea is a good companion, preferably lukewarm, but because of laziness, I usually drink it cold. Our tea dates back to the foundation of Silver Club in 2010, so it has some special energy in it.
David brought about the issue of The Chasm, and I would have liked to see some comments on it. I don't have an opinion, except a mild hunch that 2012 could have been a sort of chasm already.
As for the current price, I see no indication that the train is abruptly about to leave the station. Making an ATH so that it is clear it's not a double top would be a confirmation. Then it would be possible to get 66% of the coins relative to buying now. But waiting for 400 would net you 200% of the coins, which is a more interesting proposition for me, and should be for those who already have a position in bitcoin.
As for the superexponential trend some have been suggesting, we already lived through one in 2010-2011, but from the hindsight it has been called a bubble. I think betting for a short-term superexponential trend is not very intellectual if you don't honestly think it will go all the way to the logical end, which is the destruction of the fiat system this year. Otherwise it is likely that you end up buying rather high, and need to guess the top (even if you are right about the short term rapid growth). If not, you only end up buying rather high.
I want to underline that I think 99% of the people should not pay attention to the short term fluctuations of the price. At the instant when you are ready to buy in, do it. Then only accumulate the position whenever you feel like it and don't sell (regardless if you feel like it or not). Then after you are sure it does not make sense for you to buy more (because you already have so many that having more would not matter), construct a diversification schedule to sell a fraction every time the price reaches a certain milestone. Make it such that you have a comfortable number of bitcoins left when the price reaches $1 million. If you have BTC10 now, I advocate to sell anything between BTC5-BTC9 during the runup. Make the plan, and stick to it. After you have started selling, I don't advice to buy back even if the price goes down. Enjoy your gains rather.
David brought about the issue of The Chasm, and I would have liked to see some comments on it. I don't have an opinion, except a mild hunch that 2012 could have been a sort of chasm already.
As for the current price, I see no indication that the train is abruptly about to leave the station. Making an ATH so that it is clear it's not a double top would be a confirmation. Then it would be possible to get 66% of the coins relative to buying now. But waiting for 400 would net you 200% of the coins, which is a more interesting proposition for me, and should be for those who already have a position in bitcoin.
As for the superexponential trend some have been suggesting, we already lived through one in 2010-2011, but from the hindsight it has been called a bubble. I think betting for a short-term superexponential trend is not very intellectual if you don't honestly think it will go all the way to the logical end, which is the destruction of the fiat system this year. Otherwise it is likely that you end up buying rather high, and need to guess the top (even if you are right about the short term rapid growth). If not, you only end up buying rather high.
I want to underline that I think 99% of the people should not pay attention to the short term fluctuations of the price. At the instant when you are ready to buy in, do it. Then only accumulate the position whenever you feel like it and don't sell (regardless if you feel like it or not). Then after you are sure it does not make sense for you to buy more (because you already have so many that having more would not matter), construct a diversification schedule to sell a fraction every time the price reaches a certain milestone. Make it such that you have a comfortable number of bitcoins left when the price reaches $1 million. If you have BTC10 now, I advocate to sell anything between BTC5-BTC9 during the runup. Make the plan, and stick to it. After you have started selling, I don't advice to buy back even if the price goes down. Enjoy your gains rather.
850 continues to hold, so the ABC scenario remains in play. Channel bound 770-850. The North American day should see a minor uptrend now, unless there is a catalyst.
IMO the minor uptrend just seems like a minor correction to the whale dumps, think we'll still drift a bit lower today.
850 continues to hold, so the ABC scenario remains in play. Channel bound 770-850. The North American day should see a minor uptrend now, unless there is a catalyst.
Regarding the number of wallets, does it take into consideration people having multiple wallets? As BTC becomes more mainstream will the amount of wallets per user increase?
A quadratic model will be very accurate, I think. An a*t^2 term for nonce wallets resulting from network size, a b*t term for dynamic wallets, and a constant term c for static wallets. a is very very small now and can be ignored, unless apps arise which inflate it. b dominates over time, currently.
I must be a reformed man. I've actually been getting positive feedback lately.
Back to TA: I've been burned more often by pessimism than by optimism, in BTC (since September), so I'm sensitive to chart signals that a notional bearish scenario is inaccurate. Presently I'm cuing on the Fisher transform and the pending MACD crossover on the 4-hour chart. Fisher is showing a fairly deep long bottom, and any deeper cut would be a statistical outlier.
I need a platform where I can code-up a DeMark Sequential countdown or a TrendStall indicator. There's no BTC price feed on the Bloomberg, and those proprietary studies have served me best in other markets, especially FX and commodities. Maybe CQG? TradeStation? Any analytic platform experiences, recommendations out there?
Back to TA: I've been burned more often by pessimism than by optimism, in BTC (since September), so I'm sensitive to chart signals that a notional bearish scenario is inaccurate. Presently I'm cuing on the Fisher transform and the pending MACD crossover on the 4-hour chart. Fisher is showing a fairly deep long bottom, and any deeper cut would be a statistical outlier.
I need a platform where I can code-up a DeMark Sequential countdown or a TrendStall indicator. There's no BTC price feed on the Bloomberg, and those proprietary studies have served me best in other markets, especially FX and commodities. Maybe CQG? TradeStation? Any analytic platform experiences, recommendations out there?
yeah great posts Aminorex. Regarding the number of wallets, does it take into consideration people having multiple wallets? As BTC becomes more mainstream will the amount of wallets per user increase?
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