rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 357.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 08:50:18 AM

Quote from: Ducky1 on January 07, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

There will be lag of course, but that is just the nature of the phenomenon, which will happen again and again. Bitcoin is scale-invariant, which means that the ones hoarding 10000s of bitcoins in the early years, sold into the 2011 bubble and bought their mansions. The ones buying like mad in early 2013 (me included) can now sell and be set for life. The ones buying 10 bitcoins now will have to wait 1-2 years. In each of the events the number of people is larger, price of 1 bitcoin is higher, number of bitcoins bought and sold per person is smaller, but the aggregate number is the same, and the influence to an individual person's life is pretty much constant (=equally life-changing Wink

)

Barring a disaster, you think 10BTC will be "life changing" in 1 to 2 years?

Will the equivalent of 3M USD be life changing to you? Then yes.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Ducky1 on January 07, 2014, 08:26:22 AM

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

There will be lag of course, but that is just the nature of the phenomenon, which will happen again and again. Bitcoin is scale-invariant, which means that the ones hoarding 10000s of bitcoins in the early years, sold into the 2011 bubble and bought their mansions. The ones buying like mad in early 2013 (me included) can now sell and be set for life. The ones buying 10 bitcoins now will have to wait 1-2 years. In each of the events the number of people is larger, price of 1 bitcoin is higher, number of bitcoins bought and sold per person is smaller, but the aggregate number is the same, and the influence to an individual person's life is pretty much constant (=equally life-changing Wink

)

RAJSALLIN

hero member

Activity: 665

Merit: 500

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 08:08:03 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on January 07, 2014, 08:00:26 AM

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.

As you can see, bitstamp is crashing with as little volume as it was choochooing 2 days ago

"There is no stable price between 500 and 1000"

Rpietila, I forgot to thank you for this thread. The regular wall observer is so full of crap it's not worth the time to follow. I'm hoping this thread will be of much higher quality and I hope I can be a small part of that. (This post is not part of it and feel free to delete it.)

Ducky1

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 500

📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 08:15:40 AM

Quote from: Ducky1 on January 07, 2014, 08:12:28 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 06:25:39 AM

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

The buyers become owners and will also be subject to selling as the price goes up.

The only evidence of lasting superexponential growth (ie. not a parabolic bubbletop) is in the transition phases from old currency to the new, usually called hyperinflation.

Yes, but imo, there will be some substantial lag here. The ones buying now, and believing in bitcoin (like me) will not sell before the sum will be "life changing". So some of the bitcoins going from sellers like you cashing out according to plan will end up at buyers like me wanting to hold for a long period. I don't know whats "life changing" for most people, but for me it means at least a 10x increase before I start to sell anything.

Edit: also the amount of held bitcoin will probably increase even if the buyers of your coins sell according to your plan (I haven't done any calculation on this, just my hunch)

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: nanobrain on January 06, 2014, 08:23:13 AM

Quote from: BitChick on January 05, 2014, 08:52:51 PM

Quality TA thread? Does that mean that there will be no pictures of female's derrieres to weed through and millions of CHOO CHOOs and rocket ships? Wink

So what do you think the trendline is now? Do most of you think that we are still over the "trendline?" I have seen a "new and improved" super exponential one that seems closer to how things are moving right now with the price hitting $10,000 in May and $100,000 in August.

I wouldn't hold your breathe waiting for a reply - I think us ladies have to sit at the back and talk quietly while the gents ~~measure their dicks~~ compare their cigars Wink

Welcome girls! Eagerly awaiting your contribution

The wish concerning no rumps has so far been granted.. Wink

Today's cigars are more modest, Oliva IV (one hour blonde from Nicaragua) and Montecristo dark 12cm, not comparable to my waist Cheesy

As for trendline, today it's at 508, so we are .223 log units above. Not a buying territory, sorry..

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Ducky1 on January 07, 2014, 08:12:28 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 06:25:39 AM

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

The buyers become owners and will also be subject to selling as the price goes up.

The only evidence of lasting superexponential growth (ie. not a parabolic bubbletop) is in the transition phases from old currency to the new, usually called hyperinflation.

Ducky1

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 500

📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 06:25:39 AM

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment(with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

The by me bolded part is the important factor here imo. Is it resonable to believe there will be a similar amount (in bitcoins) of "dishoarding" when the price goes up? If you follow your own SSS model the amount of bitcoins you sell as time goes by will be smaller and smaller, which may produce the second exp-function in the super-exponential graph. I may as usual have overlooked something, so feel free to shoot me down.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Can any of the EW guys post an article that concisely explains what has happened after October and will happen in the future? Link ok.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on January 07, 2014, 08:00:26 AM

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.

As you can see, bitstamp is crashing with as little volume as it was choochooing 2 days ago

"There is no stable price between 500 and 1000"

RAJSALLIN

hero member

Activity: 665

Merit: 500

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 07:56:41 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on January 07, 2014, 07:32:10 AM

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

It is currently the most reliable tool in my possession. The only other one that has given me edge is fibonacci retracement levels. Other than those two, it is just hunch (which must be interpreted correctly, ie. a "hunch to panic buy" is more often wrong Wink

). I know that others use other kinds of analysis methods, but I don't know enough of them. Also my position is quite large to enter and exit at will, which means that the more long-term methods suit me better.

I did fine in 2011 by refusing to buy until the price had gone back below trend. Also the whole of 2012 was a stellar buy with no sell signals. 2013 was spot on.

The only thing the trendline method did not call was the top in 2011 (there was no trend yet, except a 6400x UP in 12 months). If it fails on this one, it will be the first actual failure. (I did call the top at $25 but did not have any coins to sell, so talk is cheap

)

To elaborate what I would classify as failure: if the price at no point in 2014 goes at least -0.2 log units below the trend. It does not need to happen this month. This is no crystal ball, rather "some kind of magical gravitational force" that rewards those who understand its long-term nature and have the balls to wait.

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on January 07, 2014, 07:32:10 AM

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

It is currently the most reliable tool in my possession. The only other one that has given me edge is fibonacci retracement levels. Other than those two, it is just hunch (which must be interpreted correctly, ie. a "hunch to panic buy" is more often wrong Wink

). I know that others use other kinds of analysis methods, but I don't know enough of them. Also my position is quite large to enter and exit at will, which means that the more long-term methods suit me better.

I did fine in 2011 by refusing to buy until the price had gone back below trend. Also the whole of 2012 was a stellar buy with no sell signals. 2013 was spot on.

The only thing the trendline method did not call was the top in 2011 (there was no trend yet, except a 6400x UP in 12 months). If it fails on this one, it will be the first actual failure. (I did call the top at $25 but did not have any coins to sell, so talk is cheap

)

To elaborate what I would classify as failure: if the price at no point in 2014 goes at least -0.2 log units below the trend. It does not need to happen this month. This is no crystal ball, rather "some kind of magical gravitational force" that rewards those who understand its long-term nature and have the balls to wait.

RAJSALLIN

hero member

Activity: 665

Merit: 500

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

AlexM

member

Activity: 114

Merit: 10

My observations is not TA but sentiment analysis. Most holders expect BTC to be $5,000-$10,000 at the end of the year. Lots of people have made stupid trades and lost coins or money so they are resolutely holding, or just gradually buying. From reading around on different forums they think the price may go down by $100-$500 at any point but have given up trying to profit from the dips, why bother when the price will be 5 or 10 times the current price within the next 12 months.

I also believe that there are a lot more off market trades going on.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: farfiman on January 07, 2014, 06:39:54 AM

Quote from: Lewis2 on January 07, 2014, 06:35:44 AM

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

Not even a drop in a bucket of the investment money in the world is in bitcoin yet.

It is possible, but not likely to happen this year. I'd say 20%.

The most likely scenario in my books is that we continue in the exponential trend and the price rises to $3k-$13k, with the corresponding investment of 10-40 billion dollars. Even that is quite much money, and quite much more than in 2013.

kehtolo

hero member

Activity: 707

Merit: 500

Quote from: libity on January 07, 2014, 06:45:17 AM

Quote from: merkin51 on January 07, 2014, 06:33:54 AM

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

Thanks for that!

libity

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Quote from: merkin51 on January 07, 2014, 06:33:54 AM

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

kehtolo

hero member

Activity: 707

Merit: 500

Quote from: merkin51 on January 07, 2014, 06:33:54 AM

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

+1 - I'd like to see them as well.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Lewis2 on January 07, 2014, 06:35:44 AM

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 06:25:39 AM

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

Not even a drop in a bucket of the investment money in the world is in bitcoin yet.

Lewis2

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: rpietila on January 07, 2014, 06:25:39 AM

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

merkin51

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 357. (Read 907227 times)