Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 356. (Read 907212 times)

Soo.. guys... What do you think is the right answer.. Has BTC been bought up by an organized group of manipulators or are the manipulators the same guys who are running the exchanges, by which they present falsified market data of illusionary transactions?

My bet is that we will soon be in the 700's again on bitstamp..

Alot of money are being offered in the order book. Yesterday, i found a 2k dump on a single order at 999's, so for the price to break 1000 will take alot of momentum.

I hope for alot of cheap coins before we set off again to the moon.. i missed the november-rally and would of course like my investment to increase 100 times during this year.

Where do you see the trend going? - surely this 200 dollar downward movement the last two days must be causing some panic..?


Last minute edit: Just saw the price dipping to 790 @ bitstamp.. quick recovery to the 810 usd range.. but this should indicate further movement downwards..

Yes. So far it has played out exactly as the one in April, but with 2-3 times slower speed. 50 was tested two times in quick succession, and the third came later.

It makes me wonder whether the final capitulation this time is also 5 months away, in which case it would probably not go below 500 but rather 700 or so. This would be a negative event for my trading strategy because I would have to wait with lots of cash in the exchanges for months (risk!) + would not even make any gain 

Does it make to diversify with altcoins ? I went from 100% BTC to 66% BTC/33% altcoins (net wealth is 6 figures in fiat).

I know it doesn't make sense from a Markowitz standpoint (you don't diversify with correlated assets) but come on, cryptocurrencies are probably the most important technological step in human history since the Industrial Revolution and the fastest growing economy. I think there is a huge oppurtinity cost to not invest as much as one can on it. Am I stupid?

All factors contribute to market sentiment. Market participants take these factors into consideration. Is everything priced in? No. But our tools are limited. Regardless, I think we tend to see similar cycles in market sentiment in each rally/correction cycle. Price movements play out differently each time, but the psychology behind them are not random, IMO.

We had actually 2 drops to 500s, that should be something like double bottom for all TA lovers.

This crash will probably last for 20 hours more. It's an important part of the strategy to wear the average Joe traders out with sleep deprivation, so their decision making abilities deteriorate even more

I actually thing market sentiment is better when factored into adoption, government sentiment, 3rd world sentiment, institutional sentiment. Forum sentiment only helps only mostly extremely peaks and valleys. But picking correction length cycles, etc. is a factor of world sentiment.

That isn't my method personally. But I think there is something to be said for analyzing "bubble psychology" within reasonable confines. For example, looking to 2011 or April 2013 for guidance on specific price movements would probably be unreasonable. But I think they do offer valuable insight into analyzing market sentiment.

True. But I often see people make the case that this rally and retraction should be compared to April or 2011, even though those 2 were completely different than each other. Why would that be?

I see people often make this case. A drop to below $500 once means that a considerable drop can't happen again? Why would that be?

It seems that I have often been surprised at your predictions being accurate, however, didn't we already have a nice little crash to $500 a few weeks ago?  What makes you think we will revisit that?  The trendline?  I am really starting to believe we are on the super-exponential curve now and $900 to $1000 is right on target if that is the case.  With all of the dumping we have seen with the price staying within this rage there seems to be some validity to this.  Thoughts?

It's a coiled snake, ready to spring.

I have the feeling - nothing scientific, of course - that we will see 500 before 1000 in Bitstamp.

EDIT:
There is some support, though. The number of bids above 500 has actually increased to 13.1k during the crash from about 12.6k yesterday. I've seen charts that say that the strong support is in 550-650, but judging from the bids it is in 350-500.

What is your count? Could this not have fit the top of B in ABC corrective wave?

hello, just posting to bookmark this quality thread. As for now, would you reckon somekind of a small recovery back to 950ish (on stamp) before hitting the deep? or shall i just sell now? i am tempted to make it 60/40 on my BTC/fiat positions. would that be wise?

thx for the good work in here anyway, oh and i am enjoying a classic D4 Partagas

That really depends on the size of your net wealth.

When bitcoin reaches 60%-80% of your net worth, it starts to make sense to diversify. Before that it doesn't.


There was no momentum to begin with. Volume was so low. If I could take the time to concentrate on this, I would probably sell now.


The Montecristo was indeed nice, despite its small size, it was round and pleasant and lasted about 80 minutes. Will definitely buy again (about $22).

Perhaps this isn't the greatest buying moment in history *but* if one holds the longest point of view then it is good enough.  Cost averaging in over the course of a few months or even longer would be wise.

Buying at $900/BTC or so and then losing it all is the same as buying it at $400/BTC and doing the same.  Zero is zero either way.  Only the young (with time to recover) should invest more than they can afford to lose; they might have to endure living in their parent's basement a little longer.  The poor (if they can find a way in) could invest some modest amount (if they can do it without starving to death) in the hopes of hitting it big; personally I think this is a better move than buying regressive lottery tickets -- perhaps the allure of the immediate thrill of winning a lottery is too much to overcome.

Never sell unless there is some overriding issue; e.g. significant others need "proof" that one can indeed get out.  Hunger qualifies as an overriding issue but then it is called spending as opposed to selling.

Transitioning from a buy-and-hold-until-it-goes-to-zero-or-to-big position to the take-profits-as-desired position is the one I am grappling with.  I truly used funds that I can tolerate losing altogether; nothing has changed even though my investment is worth ~7x now.  I firmly believe Bitcoin is going big.  Why in the world would I take profits now?  Where would I park the profits to keep them safe from US dollar inflation which I believe is coming soon?

Bitcoin will never be 300k