Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 358. (Read 907212 times)

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

S-curve in an exponential chart is linear. The contestant is not the S-curve but the superexponential curve (bitcoin singularity/dollar hyperinflation), which would propel us to $1M this year.

I famously predicted we would reach $300k last year (we didn't). So perhaps this year we will make it If not, all of the trendlines under serious discussion point to $1M in 2017 the latest.

I don't know, my EW is saying we're we closing 4 and about to start wave 5 to 1150-1200 area, and then correction.

A triple top at 1240 could send us back to your trendline for a few feeks or months.

Of course! Perhaps i should have added I only trade with around 15% - the rest is of course in cold storage, and I'm not even going to touch it (for a long time yet), no matter how tempting it may be to increase profits by upping the multiplyer. I'll hopefully make some smart trades and this will follow in course. 

Hopefully you didn't sell all your holdings, always keep the bulk in cold storage.

Nice thread, enjoyed reading so far.
Glad I read it now, as it has re-enforced some of my own predictions/feelings on this past 'rally' - during which i did panic buy at ~$830
Sold now, as things are looking to be turning bearish IMO - and hope we see below 800 or 750.
Posting this so it is bookmarked for me.

From history we know that bubbless are bigger than previous ones and time between them is shorter which in turn can lead to bubbless on top of each other. I would strongly advise to not sell bitcoins because you might not be able to buy them back cheaper any more especially if you want to buy big amounts. trend line can switch from linear to S curve and all your predictions will be failure.

Yes, we can hope so we can scoop some more coins, but on the otherhand it will crush the confidence and the media will burn us down to the ground.

We can only hope

By the way hitting $995 in bitstamp before backing down is not a legit crossing of $990 (the daily from 10.12.2013 is still higher). If we do not quickly go back up and smash $1k, this is very bearish and might have been the start of a multi-week downtrend.

EW analysts say that the higher it goes before topping over, the deeper it goes also. I think this was quite high, so will we see $300 also??

No.

I am not deriving the place of the buy orders solely from probabilities, but mainly from my utility function.

For example now during this uptrend I considered buying some back at a loss (after all they'll be $3-$13k in the end of this year so why risk??) Did not decide to do it, because I am so heavy on coins even now that my utility would be very high in all super-exponential scenarios. It is mainly a matter of vainglory over the regret of not belonging to the 100 most wealthy (and having to settle in the TOP-200). The negative side of having to sell a significant portion of my other assets to buy a small relative number of more coins was weighing more in the equation.

I also considered selling more since the rally seems to me more like a dead-cat bounce than a realistic new uptrend. But this also did not feel right, and the reason was mainly the increase of risk in the scenario of government-coordinated total exchange failure: then my funds + the bitcoins in the exchanges would be seized, I would have relatively little cold-wallet coins, and the price of them would likely collapse. Did not feel I wanted to take more of this risk for just a gamble gain anyway.

If the price goes to $300-$400, then (only) will there be utility for me in buying thousands of more bitcoins with a significant net increase of my bitcoin position, and a small relative decrease in the other assets. The bids are and likely remain there, until the rising trendline prompts the incremental raising of these bids also, and if they are not fulfilled until bitcoin price has risen high enough to prompt my next divesting round, they will be removed and I will keep this cash instead.

This is what I do. SSS is what I tell others to do. Always interested if you have good schemes and want to instruct us!

Does that mean 45% of your buy orders are above 500?

So where are these walls?

Yeah, this will look like the most epic double top if we spend here 2 weeks and then turn down


If you took the other side, and hedged the bet by selling BTC4 at $1,000, your return would be:

2000    -1,00
1900   -0,89
1800    -0,78
1700   -0,65
1600    -0,50
1500   -0,33
1400    -0,14
1300    0,08
1200    0,33
1100    0,64
1000    1,00
900   1,44
800    2,00
700   0,71
600    1,67
500   3,00

I would not have offered such good odds, but also did not even consider breaking my promise of not posting to that thread until we hit $500 (I am only about 55% certain of that happening ever again now though   )

Agreed. I don't see a drop into capitulation starting here. We will consolidate for some time first if/before it comes.

I use blockchained.com bid/sum on MtGox (which I take as representative for the whole market given its stable market share). Given that the Wall Observer has found yet another excuse for off-topic talk in bet booking, I shall update my post from yesterday:


The bid sum top was reached with the price at $800, and it is now clearly trending down, with a -7% decline. I predicted the end of the rally correctly in late May. I am not bragging, just saying where I come from. I might be wrong, but the volume since the december low is abysmal, and I recall feeling uneasy in May with the slow, constant uptrend. People going all "slow and steady wins the race!" and "it is coiling for a major break upwards" and all that. Notice the volume peaked in the last leg up in May.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-16zeg2013-06-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gStochRSIzv

Also, notice Stoch RSI has been overbought now for a whooping number of days. Furthermore, my own indicator (that makes it sound so professional wow such awe) for trend reversal based on bid/ask sum has been triggered. Therefore, I contend we have seen the top of this "Back to normal" rally. Of course, it doesn't have to be a replay of the May-July capitulation, but it certainly looks like so.

I must only remind myself that things tend to go slower than one may think. For example, that bet on the Wall Observer about <$750 within next 48 hours is absurd. Even though the price will reach those levels in my most probable scenario, it will take way longer than that.

hello, lurking around, much appreciated that little quote :


its, in the end, always all about money isnt it?! 

Yes, these 2 things are exactly equal. I calculated the percentage by using exchange volume data in 2012-2013 and subtracted back-and-forth trading. It is a rough estimate but serves its purpose.

Thanks ghdp, e4xit and rptiela. Makes sense now!

But that "market cap" is meaningless.

Imagine what would happen if 50% of all bitcoins currently in exchanges go to cold wallets. Suddenly, supply is halved.

On the same reasoning, if only me, Johnny and another 8 guys trade coins and everybody else waits for a bigger price (let's say 1M USD / coin), then we could make the price 8000 USD / BTC and say the market cap is 100 B. Which is not true.