Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 359. (Read 907227 times)

It should be calculable from the average dishoarding rate, right? So I suppose only $2-3 billion is needed to double the market cap.

My calculations show that on average, an investment of $1M raises the market cap by $4M in the long term. In other words, it takes $3M to raise the bitcoin price by $1 in a sustainable fashion.

...and if we assume that this stays roughly constant, it would take $3 trillion of new investment to raise the bitcoin price to $1 million. Requires some infrastructure yes, but hardly impossible considering how much money there is in the world chasing anything valuable

Your initial responder was indeed correct. The term "market cap" really means market capitalisation. This is not in fact what is being measured by performing the sum "currenct BTC price (in $) * # of BTC in existence". It is in this case a misnomer.

Think about it, this really is just a rough (over?) estimate of current value. Many bitcoins have been lost or are simply not for sale for any price (for whatever reason, of which there could be many).

Also, many (large) bitcoin trades can take place away from large exchanges at prices either above or below the current price, again, for whatever reason.

Also, many traders will not necessarily keep their trades sitting in the order books, as this might 'give their game away', in whatever way they do not desire. They might be watching charts live or else have bots or traders which only add orders to the books when certain price points are reached. For this reason, even "market depth" is very difficault to calculate (with decent accuracy).

So you see, the total amount spent on bitcoins (to date) by bitcoiners is not equal to the current "market cap". And neither will any doubling in price by the result of another doubling of increase in investment. For example, if 90% of bitcoins are currently 'not for sale' because everybody was hodling (holding), then the price might fly up very quickly with little new "capitalisation" realised into the market.

These are only a few (basic) factors I am outlining, there are sure to be many more...

HTH explain a little of this for you.

rpietila, I have been reading your threats and you seem to know your economics. I wondered what your thoughts on the following are:

I mentioned in another thread that to double the price, the market cap has to be doubled. At that moment (price around $820,-) that meant an extra $10,000,000.- in bitcoin. Somebody else replied the following:

Only a small fraction of coins are on sale at one time. Someone buying bitcoins doesn't have to pay all bitcoin owners.

Meaning that there is no need of a 10 billion dollar injection to double price. Which seems reasonable. How much new money do you think it takes to double the price (i.e. 820 to 1640)

Actually i meant the same thing. Correction to near trendline mid-term . Why i chose bitstamp was that during media coverage the search for bitcoin increases more than for exchanges, because not everybody is going to buy. As estonian, i am very happy to see that Estonia is nr.1 country. It proves that we are one of the leading IT countries and maybe this our way to wealth. Currently the next big thing coming from us is Transferwise. Its fast success shows that there is need for bitcoin.

I wouldn't hold your breathe waiting for a reply - I think us ladies have to sit at the back and talk quietly while the gents measure their dicks compare their cigars

Not really. Not sure what you are getting at as I don't see any "bear market" coming based on the search/interest fundamentals, or in the technical. We may see some mid-term price correction to the mean trend, but the growth fundamentals are very solid, and rising exponentially as expected.

For an interesting twist on what you were looking at, take a look at where the growth in search interest is happening at the moment (check the regional section). Not for "Bitstamp" (not sure why that was your term?), but for "bitcoin". It is exciting to see where the next wave of adoption may happen or is already happening.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

with institutional investment price may decouple from search terms.

Doesnt this give us more confidence in bear market? http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitstamp&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

Nice thread!


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What is even better, I have compiled a list of the must-know threads to get you started!

OK, I could follow your logic all the way up to "good guys" and "bad guys." Why are you a "good guy" and what makes the other people "bad guys?"

rpietila, when you post an update, is there any chance you could do a short "laymans terms" summary at the end of those of us who are still new to all of this? I'm fascinated by all the analysis on this board, but I get lost pretty quickly right now.

Today's cigar is Partagas Lusitanias, a 2-hour long stick with a robust taste and surprisingly affordable (about $42 where I live). It was especially funny to watch a heart attack prevention video that strongly emphasized to quit smoking immediately. I for one smoke only quality stuff that I believe enhances my total well being. Now, the belief maybe incorrect.. In this world most of the things they tell you are lies, so it is often very hard to tell

We just crossed the previous downtrend highs in BS. Now Loaded has promised that the $1k wall will be eaten, and I think this could very well be the case. The volume is so low that to acquire a decent number of coins, it is now there. In the long run, the number of bitcoins matters more than short term considerations. This is also a perfect technical area to have a downturn. Analysis encouraged!

I am quite busy with other developments, and eager to show them here also. For this reason it would be very nice if any of the contributors could help me in finding the figures for the usage growth in December, and post them in the distribution thread. Would you not like to know the growth rate in bitcoin usage over the month? I would

If anything, this proves that Bitcoin will not revolutionize the power structures at $1M yet, just disturb them. Many in the old world positions will acquire a lot of bitcoins in the process (it is actually an integral part of the process, mind you ) further lessening the impact. I was a millionaire before buying any bitcoins, and totally an investor, not nerd type. The ones who buy in 2014 will mostly be good guys like me, with more or less money. Also bad guys will buy but not nearly in proportion to their current influence.

At $10M it would be more pronounced but that would mean that bitcoins are valued to the entire world, which is quite futuristic.

You make a good point. So the number of individuals holding 100 BTC or more in 2016 will be fewer than the 11,000 today, but it will still be several thousand bitcoin 100 millionaires. That is, if the price reaches 1 million dollars.

BTC648 to $990 (BS). That was the high before the latest crash.

If we fail to make it, the downtrend scenario raises its ugly head.

However I am not betting on a flashcrash that would instantly take it to the new lows. Quite many seem to have prepared for that. There is bid mass in the <$500 area. Otoh, above 500 the bids have not increased literally at all during the last days' rise.

I don't know what to make of this historically low volume  Last time BS had such low weekly volume was right at $130 before going UP.

@siegfried Your scenario assumes that the 11,000 individuals holding over 100XBT won't sell a single one all the while prices are going to 1 million each.  An extremely unlikely scenario.  For example look at the super perma bulls on this forum and see the kind of things they all bought when XBT hit over $1000 recently.  Spending a lot of XBT in the process even while supposedly believing that XBT is going to the moon.  There will be dilution along the way while perhaps new players will be accumulating.  
@bclcjunkie  The article seems to omit the key detail of how his boombust contracts are zero trust?  Is there more info somewhere else?

The number of 100-millionaires wouldn't increase by nearly that many, because of dishoarding. If you have 100 BTC now and you sell 17% at each doubling (average historical dishoarding rate, according to RP(?)), you won't end up a 100 millionaire if bitcoin goes to a million, but more like a 16 millionaire in BTC with a few more million in fiat, if I got the math right. It seems you'd have to hold several hundred BTC (today) to make the cut, or else rake less than 17%.

i enjoy Risto's posts and glad he's got his own TA thread worth reading..

Risto what do you think about this? i find it pretty bullish in terms bitcoin finding its niche in financial world...


http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-05/future-money-here-zero-trust-digital-currency-contracts