Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 360. (Read 907227 times)

According to the bitcoin wealth distribution thread, there are more than 11,000 individuals with more than 100 BTC. If the BTC price reaches 1 million dollars in 2016 as RP predicts, the number of 100 millionaires in the world will have increased by 38 percent (29,000 currently + 11,000 = 40,000). That would be the most rapid and dramatic wealth redistribution in history. It is difficult to imagine - my prediction is only 100,000 dollars per BTC - but I would be happy to be proven wrong.

When each of the specific reasons why Bitcoin could fail, such as catastrophic corruption of the blockchain or the advent of a massively superior altcoin, are shown to be non-issues in a way that convinces most people, or at least most of the experts people listen to. Also, although government bans don't actually matter much as far "going to zero" scenarios, government acceptance will go far in alleviating this fear among populist investors.

Moreover, irrespective of whether such threats are conclusively proven to be non-issues, each passing year with no major incidents will automatically cause such concerns to fade.

Just tell them: whatever decision you make, it's always the correct one for you at the time. No regrets.

Ok, time for the TA:

Bubble velocity, engage !




Ichimoku cloud says we're fine for now... There's still some upside... Question is how much?

+1

Posting so I can lurk and learn.

I would appreciate a link to the trendline model since so many of the early posts in this topic refer to it.

At this still very early stage in the game I think technical analysis has merit but it's nothing more than a sideline. This is a happening which is still finding its way.

You could be noodling away at your graphs just as it's revealed that Mr Nakamoto is Zeus or the US issues death certificates for everyone on this forum. Did it fall because it was about to hit wave C or whatever or because of some crappy news from China?

The valuation is what it is purely because of collective belief and acceptance. I've no idea whether it's justified. There should be a quality sentiment and news thread. That's what's going to count until we have a clear view of where things are going.

Yes it looks like a good time to do nothing.

Quality TA thread?  Does that mean that there will be no pictures of female's derrieres to weed through and millions of CHOO CHOOs and rocket ships?  

So what do you think the trendline is now?  Do most of you think that we are still over the "trendline?"  I have seen a "new and improved" super exponential one that seems closer to how things are moving right now with the price hitting $10,000 in May and $100,000 in August.



 

Dead on. Hype and manipulation are all that is driving growth now. Also, the Chinese are still out-buying the rest of the world 2:1 while faced with government pressure to stop trading is the other layer of instability underneath the hype and manipulation. These factors would be significantly influential at any point but they are extremely influential in such a small market. This must be kept in our minds for the next several months. We must be sobered by the fact that right now BTC is a <15B market. Total USD in circulation alone near 1T. Common sense is good, sense of proportion is better especially when the proportion is 1/66.

That is correct however, that abc can make an A of a larger ABC flat 3-3-5.
Some arguments against the correction ending at $455 is that the time it took was too short for the rally preceding it, there was no divergence in the underlying indicators on larger time frames at the bottom, and this rise since has no impulsive properties (There is too much overlap in the waves so looks to be corrective in itself).

The problem I see with this being a wave b in a downward correction is that the decline from 1242 to 455 looks like a textbook a-b-c down, indicating a wave 2 in a larger rally leg higher.

+1  I'm betting on wave B, not not very much. 

I bought at 200$, after Chinese national news program actually endorsed bitcoin, and sold at 1020$, at the start of December, when it seemed that the volumes won't be able to support the price. Now I have only bought back maximum 5% of the previous sum invested and have only held for short periods for personal entertainment.
To me, this ongoing uptrend doesn't make any sense and my doubts go to:
a) A typical pump and dump scheme by people with deep pockets
b) Organized market manipulation by presenting false market data

I just can't see anything in the development of bitcoin on what to speculate the supposedly growing demand. New markets haven't been opened in important geographical locations, no new laws have passed to support the integrity of cryptos, no new endorsements have been made by influential channels. Just a pack of hazy rumors about possibilities of new payment options and wall street interest. But on the negative side it is public that China government declared that they don't want to see any legal business activity regarding bitcoin. And the rise of the Chinese market was the thing that actually made the price rise to 1200$ from 100$. So, I'm totally clueless on how could someone see that the actual demand will rise in the near future..

When the bitcoin market is so heavily manipulated, then the price could rise even more. But then it's impossible to speculate how far will it rise and how fast and low will it drop. This is just gambling then, and I never gamble with sums that have any importance.

Thank you for posting this, I always enjoy reading your threads.

Not rpietilä, but IMO it's the point where governments (USA) gives offical green light.

Option  D. We make a new ATH and fall back, staying above the $455 (Gox)/ $380 (Stamp) low. This would be a running flat.

Your first would be a Zig-zag. Second would be a standard flat correction and third qualifies as an irregular flat.

Hey RP I am interested in your opinion about this. I was thinking about the growth curve of Bitcoin and we are at a point in its growth, where its popular, even and especially by proponents, to say "Bitcoin could go to zero." Or its "huge price or zero no in between". Or critics say "Bitcoin will eventually fail" etc etc etc.

At what point does the general concensus become bitcoin will not fail, bitcoin will not go to zero? Of course, anything can end, but I think most people don't think Google is going to fail or Yahoo or Apple - those are extreme examples just to make a point. Another would be "too big to fail" banks.

But if bitcoin continues to grow, at some point people will assume zero is not an option with bitcoin.

Once this happens, I believe we will have a watershed moment with Bitcoin. When the counter party idea of risk is no longer zero, there will be much less of a cap on the upward momentum of bitcoin price.

I have a feeling that there may be a singular event or a series of frequent events that leads to a shift in the general sentiment regarding bitcoin in this way. I do not know if it will be a certain price point (maybe 5 figures) or some level of adoption.

But psychologically I feel like ridding itself of this "could fail" populist idea is the final frontier for bitcoin.

I see A as particularly important.  Algorithmically controlled release with declining inflation is a unique feature of bitcoin that hasn't been seen in other markets.

Here are my points regarding the limitations of the trendline:

a) The inflation rate of Bitcoin
in 2012 -> around 40%
in 2013 -> around 13%
which is partly due to halfing of the block reward and partly due to the increase in the number of Bitcoins (which reduces the precentage)
This is definitely going to have some impact on the price, assuming the same trend for both these years, does not make sense to me.

b) The trend line is based on the least squares method. So, values furthest from the trend will be given the maximum weight. So, we would end up giving more weight to the bubble in 2011 than the recent price data.