Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 362. (Read 907212 times)

Surprised: Yes. In a sense that I would have given it <50% probability (and therefore bet against it).

Reemergence of bull market: this requires a lengthier explanation which is based on the trendline model.

The trend is adjusting itself all the time, but it already has 5 years of data, which means that the new datapoints do not change it much. I have high confidence on the predictive ability of the trend, because I believe it tells us the market-tested maximum increase rate based on infrastructure and psychological factors mainly. According to the trend, we will reach $1M in 12/2016. It is quite breathtaking speed actually.

A
Ultimate definition for a bull market is that the trendline will never be revisited. The rate of growth of bitcoin economy would have changed, which means that the trendline should be recalculated with only the new data (since 1.1.2013 for example). The new booms and busts would conform to the steeper trend and not the old (which did call the bottom in 2011, and was very good in 2013). This would mean that $1M is reached sooner than 12/2016.

B1
Intermediate1 bull market is something that would now have started, and will run its course and crash to the trendline and below sometime so far in the future that it would have been better to buy now. Such as 2011 before the bubble. This will of course affect the trendline slope to the upside, since so long time would have been spent significantly above it.

B2
Intermediate2 bull market means that we make the new ATH and go beyond, but in the aftermath visit the trendline and below such that it is advantageous to wait considering the risks and such (going below $800). The trend would be pretty much intact in this scenario. (According to the trend, we would close the year 2014 at $6,356, which means that the likely price is between $3k-$13k.)

C
Bull market is not resumed, and we will turn down before making an ATH. Likely by the end of March, there will be an event allowing purchase at $300-$400 for the nimble, and the general consensus price will be at $500s, making this price available for all.

I would currently give the odds:
A = 15%
B1 = 20%
B2 = 25%
C = 40%.

Note that there will probably be flashcrashes in the way, which gives entry points to those who believe in the bull market but don't want to commit all now.

Well, it's 2pm on the last Sunday before I start the final semester of my masters degree.  I've just moved into a new apartment and bought myself a corkscrew for this wine I've had for months.  It seems like a good time to open a bottle and sort through all these boxes.

In the mean time, I've got a small long position on bitfinex with a base of $890 just for kicks.  This might well be a bull trap/B wave, but I think I can get at least a few more percent out of this move.  But please don't trade on my speculation, do your own research.


Edit:  well, hot damn... That was a nice jump while I typed this.  I sold out most and claimed the profits in BTC.

Do they understand the meaning of the word, "Hodl"?

This is my current question as well. There are many around me asking "should I buy in now?" Just as you suggested in you SSS post, I'm pretty sure the answer is yes...if they plan to hold for at least a year. But finding the right percentage of total available risk capital is harder.

For myself, I'm happy to just hold, and buy on dips.

Look forward to the thread. Have benefited greatly from all previous RP hosted threads.

Awesome. Look forward to the thread. Hope you will allow for healthy debate.

I don't smoke! o-o

Will read this thread, thanks very much and such.

Excellent. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Are you surprised by the extent of this rally from 12/17? What probability do you give to the reemergence of a bull market at this point?

Hi. I want a glass of red wine.

Wine and Cigars are on the House.