Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 33. (Read 14504 times)

I disagree with this thinking, if Nato does not want to threaten Russia or does not want to show strength, it should not expand the bloc and, even more should not drag Ukraine into Nato. So far, the war has become increasingly fierce, but the Nato side has never made any statement that Ukraine will not join Nato, they just vaguely said it was not the right time. If Russia and China don't do something to stop Nato, they will be even more extravagant and see them as the navel of the world.

And the other glorious thing is that they sell one-quarter of the amount of gas they previously sold and not only they are selling it cheaper to Europe than exactly one year before but they are also trying to get others to buy so selling at a further discount to China, because that's a genius economic move, sell less for less profit per unit, that's the way to go bankrupt.

So because the other economic genius who has always been wrong on this forum keeps saying 2020, 202, like it makes comparing prices in 20202 when oil went negative let's see how the situation looked exactly one year ago:



No invasion of Ukraine, no sanction, Russia and EU on "friendly" terms, full gas transit through Nord Stream, future contracts were 107 per MW, today, with full sanctions, less gas sold, but of course deposits, almost full thanks to cheaper than gas LNG (spread is 9 euros per MW) now, and the future prices for January delivery are 93%, so 14% cheaper. Why would the EU lift the sanctions when it gets cheaper gas than before the war? 

As for the whole EU is freezing, btw 14C in Rouen as I type, 930TWh stored versus 625 TW last year, to understand the amount stored, just the extra difference is enough to supply India's whole consumption for 8 months,  Good luck replacing that market share!

But hey this is USA, EU, CIA, propaganda, let's hear it from tass
https://tass.com/economy/1551767
Swimming in money and increasing the deficit by one full point in two months and entering recession 6 months before the EU, genius!!!!


Just a heads-up, the current war is happening in Ukraine, not in Russia, in the same palce where Napoleon the 3rd beat the crap out of your army in the Crimean war!  I'm pretty sure they skip that part of in the history books, and ww1, and the Japanse war, and the failed invasion of Poland in 1919, and many others.

What people intentionally ignore when talking about Russian oil/gas sales is the amount of money they've already earned this past 9 months from their sales which was way beyond their wildest imaginations and beyond what they could have earned if they never invaded Ukraine. In simple terms even if Russian energy export falls to zero today, they still make profit!
This is due to the fact that energy prices soared to the moon and the fact that Europe has been strengthening Russian Ruble preventing it from falling.

In my opinion, there is no threat from the NATO countries for Russia.  The Poles may intervene in the fighting in Ukraine (if the actions of the Russian troops are successful).  

However, I cannot imagine that Polish troops would cross the border and move on Moscow.  By the way, Poland does not border Russia.  Between them is Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus.  

Turkey benefits from trade with Russia.  These two countries do not have territorial conflicts.  

Accordingly, in my opinion, Russia should not expect an attack from Turkey.

There is a border agreement between China and Russia and both countries have recognized and finalized the shared border. So there is no point in talking about the so called Chinese takeover of Russia, no matter how much the NATO members want to prop it up. The biggest threat to the territorial integrity to Russia comes from NATO members (especially Turkey and Poland). And if you want to compare the birth rates, let me be quite clear. Birth rate in China at this point is much lower than the same in Russia (1.16 children per woman in China vs 1.505 children per woman in Russia).

Some "victorious" news from the other side of the normal world

Russia started selling oil to India at a loss.
An attempt to expand exports to the east in the face of Western sanctions continues to ruin Russia's resource-based economy.

Following the coal companies and metallurgists, who faced “negative profitability” of deliveries to Asian markets in the summer, the oil industry, the main source of export earnings for the country, began to work in the red.

Oil supplies to India, which has become the largest buyer of Russian barrels and takes half of the volumes that tankers take out of Russian seaports, became unprofitable for Russian companies in December, Reuters reports, citing sources in trade circles.

After the introduction of the European embargo and the price ceiling, Indian buyers began to demand higher discounts on Urals, the main grade of Russian oil, which accounts for 60% of exports.

If in October India bought Urals $5-8 cheaper than Brent, then the discounts for December deliveries increased to $12-15. With transportation costs that run as high as $11-$19 for Russia's western ports, oil companies' actual revenues are $40-$45 a barrel. But in reality, the oilmen do not see this money either: they give the budget from $20 to $30 per barrel in the form of a mineral extraction tax, and another $6 per barrel is taken by the state in the form of an export duty on oil. Finally, pumping oil from metering stations in Western Siberia to the ports of the Baltic Sea costs $5.5-6 dollars.

As a result, the export earnings of Russian oil companies in the supply of raw materials to India for December cargo in the Baltic approached the cost of production or even fell below.  By the end of November, Russia shipped to India at least 3.7 million tons of Urals, or 54% of the oil exported by tankers from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. Having overtaken Iraq, Russia has become the largest supplier to Indian refineries, shipping almost a million barrels per day to the country. India accounts for a third of Russia's total offshore oil exports of about 3 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg estimates.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-sold-india-below-price-cap-buyers-market-2022-12-14/

A new package of Western sanctions, including a price ceiling on Russian oil and an embargo on its exports to the European Union, has already had a significant impact on Russia's oil economy.

Oil exports from Russian ports plunged 56% in the first full week of capping, ending Dec. 16, according to Bloomberg calculations based on international tanker shipping data.

From 3.4 million bpd in the first week of December, offshore oil exports fell to 1.6 million, the lowest since at least the start of the year.

From the ports of the Baltic Sea, once the main "window to the world" for Russian barrels, last week only 7 tankers left, while a week earlier it was 12 ships, and in the last week of November - 15. Oil exports through the Baltic fell by 42% — from 1.25 million to 730 thousand barrels per day.

Only four tankers left the Pacific ports, from where Russian oil is exported to Asia along a short route, compared to 11 weeks earlier, and the physical volumes of exports fell 2.7 times - from 1.14 million to 410 thousand barrels per day.

Oil exports across the Black Sea (Novorossiysk) fell threefold - to 230,000 barrels per day, and from Murmansk - by a third, also to 230,000 barrels per day.
Thus, Russian oil exports fell by half after the introduction of the price ceiling. Let's see what happens next.

It is very difficult for China and Russia to cooperate with each other, because they are countries with different cultural codes. 

The mentality of the Chinese is very different from the mentality of the Russians.  The Russians in their mentality and culture are much closer to the Europeans than to the Chinese.  In addition, the Russians are very afraid that the Chinese will occupy their territory. 

There are only 140 million Russians and the population of Russia is constantly declining. 

The Chinese are 1.5 billion people.  China is not even a country, it is a separate powerful civilization.

I will agree with what you say, but that doesn't mean that without the West, Russia will stop exploiting oil and gas, Russia is still showing that they don't need anyone's help, they can do it all. It is similar to the technology war between the US and China, when the US imposes sanctions on China for fear that China will overtake it, China will also find a way to produce itself without depending on the US. In the future, once Russia and China cooperate closely, the US and Europe will become tenser and tenser. Because their power is really at stake.

Russia is not the only country with natural resources. But they are one of the most reliable suppliers. Back in 2020, Europe was importing natural gas at a rate of $100-$150 per thousand cubic meters from Russia. Then they decided to blow up the natural gas pipeline, that was carrying gas from Russia to the EU. Now they are paying $1,500 per thousand cubic meters for LNG from the US and Qatar. On the other hand, the Chinese are benefitting, because a lot of the crude oil and natural gas that was originally destined for Europe is now being rerouted to China (at a discount).

Yes, this was during the invasion of french emperor Napoleon Bonaparte in Russia.  

Napoleon Bonaparte won the Battle of Moscow (Battle of Borodino).  He entered Moscow, but fires broke out in the city and the city burned down.  It was said that the Russians set fire to the city.  Napoleon counted on negotiations with the Russian Tsar Alexander I, but he refused to negotiate.  

Napoleon decided to retreat from Moscow, but faced a very harsh winter, partisan attacks, starvation, and constant attacks by hussars and Cossacks.  As a result, almost the entire army of Napoleon died.  

The climate in most of Russia is quite severe, comparable to the climate of Canada, Finland, Sweden and Norway.

that is correct - Russia has huge oil and gas resources and that is one of the reasons the world is behind the Russia
if one country is banning their relationships with Russia the other waiting in que is coming forth for the new investment.

The cold weather of Russia is killing - and no one can survive it.
i was reading history and it said - sometime Russian did not fight their invaders but the cold weather does and kills all the invaders.

Russia is a country, most of which is located in the permafrost zone.  The icing of the earth extends 1370 meters deep into the earth's crust.  Under such conditions, it is very difficult to extract hydrocarbons.  

The cost of their production is much higher than in the Arab countries (where oil is extracted in the deserts).  

Russia produced oil and gas in cooperation with Western technology companies.

Under the conditions of Western sanctions, the development of some natural deposits is impossible.

Russia has some of its own oil and gas production technologies, but is missing some critical technologies (which were previously provided by Western companies).

In this case, of course, very few countries benefit, and many countries lose. If we talk about Europe, of course there are 51 countries in it, including Russia. Every country that is part of one continent will of course be interrelated. These countries cannot act according to their own will. For example, Ukraine has a great desire to join Nato so that the effect they receive is war with Russia. Likewise in terms of the global economy, they will make an agreement, so that these countries cannot make a decision without the approval of other countries.

Saudi Arabia is also one of the largest oil exporting countries by far, but it is part of Asia. And we know that Asian countries' cooperation is also very good. And almost most countries in Asia have raw oil stocks, both those that are already in production and those that are not yet in production. It's just that it takes scientists to develop it.

However, the current problem is countries that are dependent on other countries in terms of crude oil. And Russia is currently offering crude oil at a low price compared to world crude oil prices. Of course countries like China and India will choose to buy in Russia compared to other countries.

While America is a country with the production of advanced equipment, such as fighter planes, which most countries are currently buying from them. Fighter aircraft can fly if they have Avgas and aviation kerosine. And we know that Avgas and aviation kerosine also come from petroleum. So that in this case Russia and America are the two countries that benefit, while other countries are just supporters who only help these two countries get rich.

While China is not in between the two. He would always side with the country that benefited them. Not for Russia and not for America. What worries America is when China side with Russia. We know that China is also a country that has high combat capabilities.

So in conclusion other countries must be free from dependence on America, Russia and China. This will make the country more dignified.

I know you're supporting Ukraine and the EU, and that's your point, but you shouldn't draw conclusions that make you look stupid and ridiculous.
Russia is a country with enormous oil and gas resources, so there is no reason for them to hoard their own oil, it only costs them more for storage, they don't do it because they're not that stupid. If their technology were outdated and undeveloped, they would not have been able to make money from the EU for decades by selling gas to Europe and make Europe half-dead without their gas.

I agree with the last statement, moreover, I myself assume just such a scenario. But only here small clarifications are needed.
As you know, the EU introduced criminal liability for complicity in circumventing sanctions.
Ahead are still sanctions and bans on the sale of oil, and then gas. More precisely, not a ban, but very severe restrictions on both sales schemes and prices.
Remember that only 2 countries can buy significant volumes of gas and oil from Russia. These countries, on the one hand, call themselves "friends of Russia", on the other hand, they choose the path of integration and interaction with the adequate world, and not a pariah country. That is why China and India "out of friendship" are raping Russia, forcing it to sell its "surplus" oil at an incredibly low price right now. And now they buy most of the oil and gas for their own needs, filling their storage facilities. What happens in 6-9 months at the most when the storage is full? The answer is simple - India and China will buy oil / gas from the rogue country at an indecently low price. And then, profitably, without violating international law and price restrictions, regarding oil / gas from Russia, sell it to the foreign market, in the volumes that were previously sold to the EU and other countries. But much cheaper.

PS No, Russia will not be able to accumulate oil and gas at home - it is a technologically backward country, with an undeveloped or degraded system for the production and storage of gas and oil.

It should also be taken into account here that the economic war between Russia and Europe does not make any sense. 

Russia in its culture, demographic situation, territorial position and consumption is a European country. 

An attempt to create a Byzantine Empire 2.0 from Russia.  likely to lead to very poor results.  The state of Byzantium could indeed exist for more than 1000 years without significant changes. 

But now the 21st century is the time of neural networks, DNA editing and flights to Mars.  Arranging a war in Europe and building a new Byzantine Empire is madness.  Now there are much more important and interesting things to do.

That's what Europe wants, but it won't be that easy, I'm not saying Russia will win at this point. Both will suffer significant damage, but Europe will suffer more, and if it fails in this final round of sanctions, Europe will officially fail on all fronts with Russia. I agree with @Sithara007, oil prices should recover soon in Q1 2023 as supply decreases and demand picks up again as China opens its economy. And inflation will rise again.

In my opinion, the introduction of a price limit for oil and gas will not destroy the Russian economy.  

In Russia, there was no fall in the exchange rate of the national currency (Russian ruble) against the US dollar and the euro.  This is due to the fact that in modern Russia there is no capital outflow.  Previously, Russians massively traveled abroad (outbound tourism was developed in Russia).

In the past, this has led to a significant outflow of capital abroad.  

Now all this money remains in Russia...

In my opinion, the main problems in Russia are not in the economy, but in the souls of the people. People do not see scenarios for a positive future for themselves and their families.