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Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 34. (Read 13944 times)

legendary
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Why not? Money is money, besides both India and China are reliable customers which don't go with the US sanctions program.
Keep in mind that it is in their favor to buy Russian energy (even with small discounts) as long as they are putting their competitors in Europe out of business. This de-industrialization is mostly celebrated by them and of course US that are all sucking up all EU's industries like a vacuum.

Now I will explain where you are wrong, or trying to deceive yourself Smiley

Look, for example, there is a certain company A. It produces ... Well, let's say chips. It doesn't matter, because the essence does not change. So. This company was accused and proved that it is a criminal. financial and criminal criminals, a dishonest business partner who constantly violates contractual obligations, throws suppliers, terrorizes partners, and the head of the company is an inadequate maniac. And the judicial system imposed restrictions - blocked some of the accounts, severely restricted export activities, and imposed restrictions on the sale of this company's products. And generally prepare cases for freezing assets and declaring the company bankrupt, and many employees and the owner are a criminal under many articles, both economic and criminal. Company A has no warehouses for long-term storage. The market turns away from them, especially since the product is not unique, and there are many more manufacturers on the market. Yes, company A once monopolized one area, and was the "exclusive supplier" there. But after the investigation began, the region found alternative suppliers of chips. Now the question is - will company B, from a neighboring country, buy chips from company A "at a slight discount"? Moreover, company B is very pragmatic, and its goal is exclusively its own superprofits and ensuring survival in a very difficult market, plus it itself has big internal problems, including financial ones?
Why would company B buy chips from company A, at a "small discount", if company A is now collapsing, and its management wants to somehow manage to earn at least some money? At least at the level of cost, even lower - the main thing is to have time to "pull out" at least some money, because the day after tomorrow - and this will not happen.
Answer - under what conditions will company B buy deposits of unrealizable, illiquid and soon spoiled chips from company A? Smiley Only without prevaricating, and not inventing fantastic stories? Smiley
legendary
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In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.
I agree that there is always a solution but there is also costs. For example the massive industrialization of EU and economical growth had a dire cost because they never had nearly as much energy to feed those industries. The cost was getting in bed with Russia. The cost of getting out of that bed is also de-industrialization and the almost all of that economy evaporating.

India and China do not want to buy Russian energy without big discounts. 
Therefore, India and China cannot be called the right (good) clients. 
Why not? Money is money, besides both India and China are reliable customers which don't go with the US sanctions program.
Keep in mind that it is in their favor to buy Russian energy (even with small discounts) as long as they are putting their competitors in Europe out of business. This de-industrialization is mostly celebrated by them and of course US that are all sucking up all EU's industries like a vacuum.

Yes, the lack of gas from Russia will lead to a partial de-industrialization of Europe. 

Most likely, this will speed up the process of introducing energy-saving technologies.  In addition, the problem can be partially solved by introducing austerity in energy consumption.  Additional LPG supplies from the US may be required.  In any case, this problem will be solved. 

It is unlikely that a country like Germany will cease to be a great industrial power.  Traditions are too strong.  In the 19th century, German was incredibly popular because all technical texts were published exclusively in German.  German was the language of engineers and technologists. 

But Russia will have serious problems. 

In fact, Russia has lost its main foreign economic markets.
legendary
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.. Putin actually had people fooled he was a competent leader, until he decided to invade a neighbor and cause everything to collapse on him.

In terms of war, it is true that Russia was the first to open fire, but what is the reason behind that we need to reconsider, so we cannot call it an invasion. If Ukraine does not naively listen to the temptations of the US and the West, nothing will happen, and behind it is a whole conspiracy to destroy Russia, not just as we see it. America is not a peace-loving nation as they always claim in their media, why not peace talks between Russia and Ukraine but negotiations between Russia and the US?
legendary
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Looks like the answers to this puzzle are now in place. Russia is much poorer and unable to sell anywhere near the quantities they sold (at much higher prices) to Europe any longer. Europe continues to cut back month by month because Russia is clearly an unreliable trading partner bent on war under Putin. Oil and gas prices have dropped to pre-invasion amounts which means that Russia is not even making a decent profit on the stuff it can sell elsewhere. The Russian economy is in tatters, Europe continues on without much difference and the Russian army has been shown up as the pathetic sham we all see before us. Putin actually had people fooled he was a competent leader, until he decided to invade a neighbor and cause everything to collapse on him.

Russia is much richer compared to what they were in 2020. Urals crude is trading at $52 per barrel, which is almost 40% lower when compared to the benchmark Brent crude prices, but still higher than the $40 per barrel that they received in 2020. And any shortfalls from crude exports are covered by higher prices for LNG, coal, wheat and potash exports. The Yamal LNG plant has increased it's production to 21 million cubic meters and the additional volumes are being sold for around $1,500 per thousand cubic meters. Sakhalin 2 plant has also increased the LNG production beyond the nameplate capacity. Exports of coal and wheat are at all time high and these commodities are sold at close to market prices.
legendary
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Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

Looks like the answers to this puzzle are now in place. Russia is much poorer and unable to sell anywhere near the quantities they sold (at much higher prices) to Europe any longer. Europe continues to cut back month by month because Russia is clearly an unreliable trading partner bent on war under Putin. Oil and gas prices have dropped to pre-invasion amounts which means that Russia is not even making a decent profit on the stuff it can sell elsewhere. The Russian economy is in tatters, Europe continues on without much difference and the Russian army has been shown up as the pathetic sham we all see before us. Putin actually had people fooled he was a competent leader, until he decided to invade a neighbor and cause everything to collapse on him.
hero member
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The reasons for cutting the gas are to play their trump card in the Ukraine talks to be held with Europe. I think Putin is following straight logic. He brings out the important trump card in his hand every time. The reopening and construction of nuclear facilities in Europe is on the agenda. If Europe reopens its nuclear facilities it will reduce dependency on Russia. Qatar's door may be stolen for LNG in the future. The demand for renewable energy is high but i think that sufficient production cannot be achieved for now. Russia, on the other hand, both reduces its revenues and cuts gas every time. If Trump becomes president again in 2024 then things will work out for Russia.
legendary
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In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.
I agree that there is always a solution but there is also costs. For example the massive industrialization of EU and economical growth had a dire cost because they never had nearly as much energy to feed those industries. The cost was getting in bed with Russia. The cost of getting out of that bed is also de-industrialization and the almost all of that economy evaporating.

India and China do not want to buy Russian energy without big discounts. 
Therefore, India and China cannot be called the right (good) clients. 
Why not? Money is money, besides both India and China are reliable customers which don't go with the US sanctions program.
Keep in mind that it is in their favor to buy Russian energy (even with small discounts) as long as they are putting their competitors in Europe out of business. This de-industrialization is mostly celebrated by them and of course US that are all sucking up all EU's industries like a vacuum.
legendary
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As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance.  

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved.  

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them.  

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.

Is Russia causing trouble for the EU or is the EU trying to cause trouble for Russia?
What you say is true in business, a business needs customers to make a profit. But if sales don't turn a profit or customers become too unlikeable, then as a business capable of producing products, we have more than enough power to find better customers.

Back to the EU and Russia, I don't believe the EU will find a cheap and quality gas source like Russia, the EU knows that, and they don't want to lose this lucrative supply. But unfortunately, the gas pipeline has a problem, and they have no choice but to suspend gas imports from Russia (partly because they have also filled up their gas storage for this year). On the Russian side, they are turning to Asia, although there will be initial difficulties, it shows that Russian gas is needed by many other countries, not just the EU. India and China alone, the world's two most populous countries, have been able to fill the void left by the EU.


I am a supporter of the state being run by merchants, not warriors.  

Gas pipelines should bring income to Russia, and the funds received should be directed to the acquisition of technologies and the development of complex technological industries in the country.  I believe that gas pipelines should not be used for political blackmail.  And even if you are provoked to such actions, then you cannot succumb to such provocations.  

Unlike warriors, merchants do not divide customers into good and bad.  From the trader's point of view, customers are divided into solvent and insolvent.  

India and China do not want to buy Russian energy without big discounts.  

Therefore, India and China cannot be called the right (good) clients.  

Europe has always been a solvent buyer of Russian gas.  Therefore, Europe is the right (good) buyer (client).
full member
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Of course the most loss is Europe because gas supply is not easy and it is very difficult to find alternative energy for gas, especially many countries that are very dependent on Russian gas so that it becomes a strong bargaining value so that Europe does not dare to attack or invasion Russia.
The war has entered its 10th month, Russia and the EU have continuously introduced sanctions against each other, so far no country has won a victory. Recently, the EU also launched new sanctions to impose an oil price ceiling on Russia and Russia threatened to retaliate. Overall, Russia is unlikely to be damaged and the EU is unlikely to win. But what I see is that oil supply will be cut and oil prices will skyrocket in the near term is very high and the world will continue to fall into the energy crisis again and push inflation higher.
The countries of the European Union have introduced a cap on the price of Russian oil for sale at $60 per barrel. On December 5, sanctions also came into force on the refusal of Europe from oil products. But due to falling demand for Russian oil, Russia is forced to sell its oil much cheaper than the established price ceiling for it. So, recently, 90 percent of the oil from Russia was bought by Asian countries at a price of about $47 per barrel. It is predicted that Russia will be forced to drastically reduce oil production and, as a result of a drop in income from its sale, it has lost about 30 percent of income to the state budget.
In addition, the EU countries have also set the maximum price for the purchase of Russian gas.
sr. member
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Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.
Almost all of their industry is shutting down and they still don't have any alternative source, they're just trying to say they're fine by cutting off the supply to their people. A lot of anti-government protests are taking place in Europe. Solidarity divisions within the EU are also growing because of the controversy over gas supplies. Who said they're fine? it's all just lies.
After all the protests there is a silence and there is no change
nothing is going to change through protest - at the end we have to find alternative
so it's better to save our own energy and find out the way to help yourself.
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Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.
Almost all of their industry is shutting down and they still don't have any alternative source, they're just trying to say they're fine by cutting off the supply to their people. A lot of anti-government protests are taking place in Europe. Solidarity divisions within the EU are also growing because of the controversy over gas supplies. Who said they're fine? it's all just lies.
legendary
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I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire.
Like any war, this energy war result is also not possible to predict. There are battles in this war that West wins and some battles that East wins while the war is not yet over.
Considering that so far the oil producing countries are working together and reduce production and keep the price up, the chances of Eastern Bloc winning is higher.

P.S. The recent disruptions in China which is one of the biggest buyers of oil has helped the price dump recently. We've to wait and see how their comeback and their big buys (specially after the recent visit to Saudi Arabia) is going to affect the market.

The main reason for the recent drop in oil prices is that China's demand is slowing down with the zero covid policy. And I agree with what you said, once China reopens the economy will cause demand to pick up again, and OPEC's policy of reducing oil production will definitely make the oil market rise again.

During President Xi Jinping's recent visit, he also proposed to pay in yuan instead of USD, it would be more interesting if Saudi Arabia accepted this offer.
legendary
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As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.

Is Russia causing trouble for the EU or is the EU trying to cause trouble for Russia?
What you say is true in business, a business needs customers to make a profit. But if sales don't turn a profit or customers become too unlikeable, then as a business capable of producing products, we have more than enough power to find better customers.

Back to the EU and Russia, I don't believe the EU will find a cheap and quality gas source like Russia, the EU knows that, and they don't want to lose this lucrative supply. But unfortunately, the gas pipeline has a problem, and they have no choice but to suspend gas imports from Russia (partly because they have also filled up their gas storage for this year). On the Russian side, they are turning to Asia, although there will be initial difficulties, it shows that Russian gas is needed by many other countries, not just the EU. India and China alone, the world's two most populous countries, have been able to fill the void left by the EU.
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Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.
legendary
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As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.
legendary
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As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.
legendary
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Assalamu Alekum


2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price Smiley

Before the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up by crooks, Europe had stockpiled more than 70%-80% of its gas from Russia, so they don't spend too much time and money trying to install the remaining 20% from different suppliers, like buying LNG from screens or gas from Norway. But the real challenge will be next year when Russia blocks all supplies of natural gas as well as LNG, and I hope they will find a solution, or it will be the end of the old continent, as Vanga prophesied.
I don't think they'll ever get out of their addiction Grin Grin.
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legendary
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not selling to countries who participated in the gas ceiling is one of the Russia's sanction. more like a retaliation to that gas cap.
its why it doesn't make sense blowing up the pipeline going to Europe when they could just shut the valve. but now that its blown, EU have no choice anymore. they could make a deal still if they have that pipe operating again.

EU in between suffer the cold winter and economic collapse as well as Russia not able to make money from the west and isolated.
they could really escalate this to WW3 while not using nukes but they didn't. this is just prolonging the suffering of the people.


No, that's not how it works. Let me explain why:
1. Russia has NO WHERE to put the produced gas! YES, imagine. The largest gas supplier in the EU does not have sufficient storage facilities of its own. Until 2014, Russia stored gas in the Ukrainian GTS, Ukraine has the largest gas storage facilities.
And then Russia has a choice - either conservation (a synonym for stopping production for decades), or selling through other countries of the same EU, but already receiving 50% of the market value ... Because the resellers of "excess gas" are well aware that Russia does not have the opportunity to sell to someone else...
2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price Smiley

In my opinion, trade should not be confused with politics....

At one time, USSR Secretary General Nikita Khrushchev created a system for exporting energy resources to European countries with simultaneous imports of Western goods and technologies into the country. It was a very important element of the stable development of the country.

(At present, Nikita Khrushchev is slandered. He is portrayed as a fool and a voluntarist, although in fact Khrushchev was an outstanding political figure and a man with a strategic type of thinking.)

Of course, this state of affairs did not rule out economic crises. Such a crisis occurred in the 1980s, when the US administration agreed with the Arab sheiks on actions aimed at lowering energy prices. As a result, the economy of the USSR collapsed, the state collapsed.

At the same time, this crisis was caused by an external economic factor - the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan. If not for this circumstance, the Arab sheikhs would never have colluded with the Americans.
legendary
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not selling to countries who participated in the gas ceiling is one of the Russia's sanction. more like a retaliation to that gas cap.
its why it doesn't make sense blowing up the pipeline going to Europe when they could just shut the valve. but now that its blown, EU have no choice anymore. they could make a deal still if they have that pipe operating again.

EU in between suffer the cold winter and economic collapse as well as Russia not able to make money from the west and isolated.
they could really escalate this to WW3 while not using nukes but they didn't. this is just prolonging the suffering of the people.


No, that's not how it works. Let me explain why:
1. Russia has NO WHERE to put the produced gas! YES, imagine. The largest gas supplier in the EU does not have sufficient storage facilities of its own. Until 2014, Russia stored gas in the Ukrainian GTS, Ukraine has the largest gas storage facilities.
And then Russia has a choice - either conservation (a synonym for stopping production for decades), or selling through other countries of the same EU, but already receiving 50% of the market value ... Because the resellers of "excess gas" are well aware that Russia does not have the opportunity to sell to someone else...
2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price Smiley
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Unfortunately, today the media are very sinful or biased, or custom-made materials, or simply venality. In some countries, the media is generally a tame dog of the regime, which will write everything they say to it, even if it is an insult to their father or mother! Therefore, I try not to use the media as a source of correct information. For a slightly more complicated way of obtaining objective data, you can use stock data, country statistics.
When you are a daily follower of events, you will not be able to rely every time on statistics and scientific data. There is no escape from the media follow-up. The important thing is that this be done knowing that there is no impartial party that can provide objective, abstract information. I personally use discussions in forums to find out more opinions and then draw conclusions. Media information should not be limited with news.
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