Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 36. (Read 14504 times)

You have not been to Russia for a long time, but it is difficult to find a person with a pension of 9,000 rubles. The pension has long been raised to 13,000-16,000 rubles.
To receive the minimum pension, you need to work unofficially most of your life.
I watched an interview with a European who says that 1400 euros a month is very little, but people have been working all their lives, so they have savings and other additional sources of income. The same is true in Russia.

You missed the whole point. The point wasn't about Russian oil price but the shittiness of mainstream media.

One day bloomberg is focusing on the shipments that are sold under the price cap with the title "swaths of Russian oil is trading far below G7 $60" and the other day they are focusing on shipments that are being sold above it just because the social trend has changed specially with the ongoing protests with the title saying "easy freight helps Russian oil hold above G7 $60 cap". Keep in mind that majority of the audience only reads the titles not the content.

To put it in bitcoin terms, it is very similar to what the bitcoin news sites do. One day they are talking about how bitcoin is going to the moon ($1 million) because the social mood is up and price went up 10% and the other day they are talking about bitcoin is dying (down to $1) because price dropped -10%.

Concerning problems for Europe

"While the average price of central heating in 2021 was about 407 euros per year for an average apartment in Cologne, it will now rise to about 705 euros per year in 2022"

So, the price is kind of creepy. BUT:
1. was 407 / 12 = 34 Euro/month
2. becomes 705 / 12 = 58 Euro/Year
3. The standard state pension (not to be confused with the average pension) in Germany is 1396 euros.
34 euros = 2.4%
58 euros = 4.1%

Those. will increase by 1.7% of the level of income.

And now, let's look at the data in Russia, which is so worried about the "freezing and impoverished Europe":
1. Average pension in Russia: 13,000-16,000 rubles (although in reality there are 9,000 rubles)
2. The average cost of heating an average apartment (2 rooms): (from Russian sources) "The average Russian family that lives in an apartment building pays 5294 R per month for utilities. Of this amount, 30%, that is, 1584 R per month, - payment for heating. Those. applied 1600 rub/month. Or from the average pension it is = 10% And this calculation was given before the increase in prices for utilities, heating, gas .. in Russia
... well, and a cherry on the cake: 1600 rubles / 68 = 23.5 Euro / month, despite the fact that the income level differs by almost an order of magnitude, but not in favor of Russia

Oh, now I understand how you form "news" - just see some number higher than I indicated, discard everything else inconvenient from the information, and voila - "the whole world buys oil from Russia at 100,500 dollars per barrel" .. The style of Moscow propagandists )))

Let me move your nose along the text!
We read "According to traders, SOME independent refineries in China are buying up a batch of Russian ESPO oil due for delivery in JANUARY. The export price of the main grade of oil shipped from the Far East was estimated at 67.11 dollars."
At the same time, you selectively forgot to indicate that this is ESPO oil, and not the most massive Urals. You don't know what's the difference? Or suddenly forgotten?

Let me remind you and everyone else to understand what manipulation of information is, which you are not very skillfully trying to use here on the forum
So:
ESPO oil accounts for approximately ...... 0.35% of the world's oil supply!
ESPO is a brand of Siberian oil supplied via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline. Oil of this brand is supplied to Asian countries.
And most importantly: "The export price of the main grade of oil shipped from the Far East was estimated at $67.11 per barrel on Thursday by Argus Media."
  No, this is not a market price, this is an assessment of oil according to someone's opinion, without taking into account contractual discounts, without taking into account the nuances of sanctions .... Those .. a drop of rainwater in the ocean, which was valued at the price of a diamond



And today (21-00 09/12/2022) the Urals market tells us: the price "here and now" (without a discount) is $54.91 per barrel, or minus 2.36% per day. By the way, gas is getting cheaper too

Tell me - you did not receive education at the Moscow Institute of Journalism ?!  

I wonder what kind of reading or comprehension problems can a simple two-line text pose.

vs

60% of Russian seaborne exports are trading well below the limit, and that's only sea shipping as the majority was going through pipelines to the west.
The entire Asian infrastructure Russia has can't export more than 80 million tonnes a year with 35 million via the pipeline at maximum, compared to 210 million normal exports a year.

Simple enough? Or do I have to resort to pictures?

Bloomberg published it yesterday on 8th, today they seem to have changed their minds and published an article that is like the opposite of this one where they quote the same London based company called Argus Media that says Russian oil is being sold above the price cap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/easy-freight-helps-russian-oil-hold-above-g-7-s-60-cap-in-asia

 

Russia flatly refused to sell oil for $60 per barrel (the price ceiling introduced by the EU), so it sold it for.. $43

The fact is that the Russian grade of oil Urals, which accounted for about 60% of the country's maritime exports over the past year, on Wednesday (December 7) traded at $43.73 per barrel. This is reported by Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/why-swaths-of-russian-oil-is-trading-far-below-g-7-s-60 -cap).

It turns out that the key Russian brand of oil is trading at levels well below the price ceiling introduced by the G7 countries.

Of course this will lose each other, Russia will lose money because it does not get money and greater losses obtained by Europe because many industries are stopping and if looking for a replacement for Russia, of course it takes a very long time, diverting to other energy alternatives such as electricity will make production costs very expensive.

The most funny thing about this price ceiling joke is that only those that weren't buying Russian oil directly before all this are enforcing it now. Everyone else like India and a couple of other European countries were exempted lol

That's another funny thing these days. US is sucking EU dry to keep their own economy afloat. They are even hastening the deindustrialization of Europe and are stealing capital from EU and bringing them into US. That is on top of the inflation they are exporting to Europe.

Talk about being caught between a rock and hard place...

As for me, I'm not going to jump to conclusions just yet. Fortunately, they have enough gas on hand for the winter, and this winter is not too harsh, so gas usage seems to be under control. But wait until next winter to see how they will solve the gas problem. Will they continue to blackmail their people to buy US LNG at 5 times the price again? While they have yet to find a real alternative to Russian natural gas.
By the way, what would make you think that things in Europe will be stable in 2023 when their inflation is in double digits. US inflation is falling but EU inflation is still reaching ATH, EU is really a good brother of the US when it tries to bear all the damage for the US.

Don't worry about EU
Weaning from dependence on gas and oil from the country of an international terrorist, the process is certainly difficult, but necessary! I have written more than once - and this is the price for betrayal by the supreme power of their people - Germany, France, Italy and some others. Who traded the future of their people for their place, the place of the Kremlin's bedding. Yes, it is expensive now, but it's like an operation to remove a cancerous tumor - difficult, expensive, but necessary in order to survive and live on as a healthy person! "Russian World" is a cancerous tumor of the modern world...

By the way, Europe no longer has critical problems with gas, I am sure that in 2023-2024 everything will return to stable prices, lower prices and stabilize the EU economy.

there is a famous quote which says - and the life goes on
even if Russia cancel its deals and don't provide oil and gas to EU they will find some alternative resource.

An oil price ceiling has been applied, and Russia has also announced a halt to oil exports to the countries participating in their oil price ceiling. And also recently, OPEC + led by Russia also announced that it would maintain its decision to cut 2 million barrels per day in December. With this decision, which side will be affected the most is yet to be determined, but it is certain that the global energy crisis will become worse than ever. Russia is a voice in OPEC +, they will certainly propose more production cuts, resolutely not cutting prices, IMO.

India and China are benefiting the most, but they are also the leading oil suppliers to Europe, which means Europe is buying Russian oil through India and China. This a relatively intelligent move by Europe, like when they buy US LNG 3 to 5 times more expensive than the market price . No one other than the people of Europe is affected, but the EU government is not harmed.

Russia is strong because they have strong defence - they have huge natural resources they have great resilience and they know how to control the world
And the world is after them for the oil and gas.
There is no stopping for Russia - they have the history of violence and it will continue

but the life goes on - if Russia will not supply gas - people and gov will find other solution
We are used to live without electricity in summer and without gas in winter. but we survive and we have found the alternative. That is what the human beings do

Now there is a price cap imposed on Russia - everytime USA tries to impose their own decision on the other country
They did that to EU and that was an utter destruction but imposing sanction on Russia - I think they should have discussed with Russia to stop war so to save lives of the people

Of course the most loss is Europe because gas supply is not easy and it is very difficult to find alternative energy for gas, especially many countries that are very dependent on Russian gas so that it becomes a strong bargaining value so that Europe does not dare to attack or invasion Russia.

1. Not the US but the EU. They are imposing an embargo, and they have initiated the setting of price ceilings for oil from the country of an international terrorist.
2. Goals? Minimize the receipt of income that goes to the terrorist war, and to support the rashist regime of the Kremlin. How ? By reducing the marginal purchase price of oil to a level where the associated costs and prime cost will be at the level of the selling price, i.e. not to receive PROFIT.
3. Will it work? Will be ! Because in addition to the marginal purchase prices, several more restrictions have been introduced or are being introduced:
- a ban on the supply of equipment for oil production (Russia is a technologically backward country, even in such a critical industry for it)
- restriction on insurance of ships for oil transportation
- adoption by the EU of a law criminalizing attempts to circumvent sanctions (including the embargo)
- "invaluable benefit from friends" such as China and India. Which are forced to sell Russia to them oil at a price of $ 30 per barrel. And from 2023, I think it’s even cheaper, because. - embargo

Now there is oil price cap for Russian and Russian are not not agreed to it for $60
WHat is USA up to - they think it will stabilize the int market

I will confidently enough assume that you have poorly studied the history of Russian gas monopolization of a critical part of the industry of Germany, Italy and France, in the second middle of the 20th century!
Back in the 60-70s, by various methods of influencing the top authorities of these countries (from bribery to blackmail), the Kremlin planted these 3 leaders of the European economy on its gas. In recent years, through corrupt parties and international organizations, and with the help of all sorts of pro-Kremlin politicians, for example, nuclear power plants have been stopped in Germany. And everything went well, for the Kremlin, until they imagined themselves to be "gods" and "lords of pipes", being an ordinary raw material appendage. But they decided that everything was allowed to them, unleashed a lot of conflicts and began to "rule" the fate of other countries. So far, they have stumbled upon the resistance of Ukraine and the help of the West, which had previously been sitting and pretending that nothing was happening. Everything changed after the departure from high positions of the old EU authorities, which flirted with the Kremlin...