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Only 41% support sending weapons to Ukraine (you can imagine the spread between democrats and republicans).
Reuters/Ipsos poll November 15, 2023:
41% of people answering the poll said they backed sending weapons to Ukraine in its fight against a nearly 21-month-old Russian invasion, compared to 32% who were opposed and the rest unsure. When it came to Ukraine, support for sending weapons was stronger among Democrats.
Even if US politicians approve more funding to Ukraine for another month or two (as i fully expect) what will happen after that when population just doesn't support it? Any example in history you can think of where with time support for funding war in US grew? But even if we assume the current president and his party just decides to totally ignore the will of the people, what do you think will happen on the election day in 12months?
Well then I guess you have to put your hopes in a Republican win, because if let's say - just as approximation exercise - all Republicans are against sending support then around 80% of democrats are in favour to get to around a 40% total...
Looks to me like a democrat government would continue sending aid. To be honest, a Republican government may easily find a excuse to keep up the support to some extent.
About the republican win,
Trump is a possible winner, however there is an Elephant in the room - he is undergoing several trials (more info below, there is a thread in the forum for this, so I am only mentioning the basics to avoid off-topic walltexts by you-know-who.
2 felony counts (including one conspiracy count) of obstructing an official proceeding under 18 U.S.C. § 1512 | 1 felony count of conspiracy to defraud the United States under 18 U.S.C. § 371 | 1 felony count of conspiracy against rights under 18 U.S.C. § 241
Many of Trump supporters and donors are really trying very hard to ignore this - even on the grounds that Trump can "pardon himself". This is far from being a certainty, it is more in the area of wishful thinking.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#:~:text=Former%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20has,impeding%20efforts%20to%20retrieve%20them. ... In New York, he faces 34 felony counts in connection with hush money payments to a porn star. In Florida, he faces 40 felony counts for hoarding classified documents and impeding efforts to retrieve them. In Washington, D.C., he faces four felony counts for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And in Georgia, he faces 13 felony counts for his election interference in that state.
Now the Republicans, could present another candidate last minute or try another coup-d'etat, but again, this is all but unclear.
Since you like the polls, you may also like this one:
This mixed bag is hardly catastrophic for Trump. But if he is convicted of a felony, the polling suggests it would be very bad for him. A Quinnipiac poll back in August found that 68 percent of people think someone convicted of a felony shouldn’t be eligible to be president. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that that 45 percent of Republicans say they wouldn’t vote for him if he were convicted of a felony by a jury.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/09/trump-legal-troubles-2024-campaign-column-00126180With the country so divided, a felony conviction may be all it is needed. And looks likely.
Forty-one percent of Americans overall say the U.S. is doing too much, which has risen from 24% in August 2022 and 29% in June 2023. Thirty-three percent, down from 43% in June, say the U.S. is doing the right amount, while 25% believe the U.S. isn’t doing enough.
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Both Republicans (62%) and independents (44%) increasingly see the U.S. as doing too much to support Ukraine
Supporting Ukraine is just unpopular and (unsurprisingly) getting even more unpopular with time. Even if majority of democrat fraction still supports sending aid for now, it's not like Biden can totally disregard the other side and overall majority. Even if Biden does win, don't forget that there's also congress that approves the budget, which as we see now currently didn't approve additional aid to Ukraine. Again, look at literally EVERY single prolonged conflict and look at levels of US support vs. time, nothing new here, that's why everyone says that it'll benefit Russia.
As far as Trump, I think not letting him run is probably the worst option. Like it or not, a lot of people fanatically like him. And I'm sure everyone remembers what happened when he actually lost elections. Now imagine what would happen if he's the most popular candidate, yet they wouldn't even allow him to run on a technicality. Yeah I'm sure his supports will just calmly accept unpopular Biden as their president then
And don't forget, DeSantis the second in line republican after Trump is also against sending more aid to Ukraine.
Michael von der Schulenburg is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General, who worked for over 34 years for the United Nations
Hajo Funke is Professor Emeritus for political sciences of the Otto-Suhr-Institute/ Freie University Berlin
General (ret.) Harald Kujat was the highest ranging German officer of the Bundeswehr and at NATO
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Just one month after the start of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come very close to an agreement for a ceasefire and to an outline for a comprehensive peace solution to the conflict.
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Contrary to Western interpretations, Ukraine and Russia agreed at the time that the planned NATO expansion was the reason for the war. They therefore focused their peace negotiations on Ukraine’s neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership. In return, Ukraine would have retained its territorial integrity except for Crimea.
There is little doubt that these peace negotiations failed due to resistance from NATO and in particular from the USA and the UK. The reasons is that such a peace agreement would have been tantamount to a defeat for NATO, an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and thus an end to the dream of a unipolar world dominated by the USA.
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The failure of the peace negotiations in March 2022 led to dangerous intensification of the war that has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people...Not only Russia, but also NATO and the West bear a heavy share of the blame for this disaster.
Ukraine’s negotiating position today is far worse than it was in March 2022. Ukraine will now lose large parts of its territory.
The blocking of the peace negotiations at that time has harmed everyone: Russia and Europe – but above all the people of Ukraine, who are paying with their blood the price for the ambitions of the major powers and will probably get nothing in return.
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However, instead of ending the war through negotiations as Ukrainian President Zelensky and his government appeared to have wanted, he ultimately bowed to pressures from some Western powers to abandon a negotiated solution. Western powers wanted this war to continue in the hope to break Russia.
...In the conversation in the Kremlin, Putin, Bennett [ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER] said, had made some substantial concessions, in particular, he had renounced his original wartime goal of demilitarizing Ukraine. … .In return, the Ukrainian president agreed to renounce joining NATO – a position he also repeated publicly a short time later.
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In the interview, Bennett explained further: “I had the impression at the time that both sides were very interested in a ceasefire (…). According to Bennett, a cease-fire was within reach at that time, and both sides were prepared to make considerable concessions…. But Britain and the U.S., in particular, wanted this peace process to end and set their sights on a continuation of the war.” (Ibid)
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Like Bennet, also he [former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder] came to the conclusion that the reason why these peace negotiations were abandoned was because the Americans obstructed them. He said: “At the peace negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul with Rustem Umerov (then security advisor to Zelensky, now Ukrainian defense minister), the Ukrainians did not agree to peace because they were not allowed to. They first had to ask the Americans about everything they discussed,” and continued: “But at the end (of the peace negotiations) nothing happened. My impression was that nothing could happen because everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal.”
The Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who organized the Istanbul meeting at the time, had previously made similar comments. In an interview with CNN Turk on April 20, 2022, he said: “Some NATO states wanted the Ukraine conflict to continue in order to weaken Russia.”
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But this initial support quickly turned sour, with NATO opposing any such negotiations before Russia doesn’t withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian territories. This, in fact, killed all negotiations. Michael von der Schulenburg, former UN Assistant Secretary-General (ASG) in UN peace missions, writes that “NATO had already decided at a special summit on March 24, 2022, not to support these peace negotiations (between Ukraine and Russia).” (Cf. Michael von der Schulenburg: UN Charter: Negotiations! In: Emma, March 6, 2023). The US president had flown in especially for this special summit to Brussels. Obviously, peace as negotiated by the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegations was not in the interest of some NATO countries.
AT FIRST ZELENSKY STICKS TO THE OUTCOME OF THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
“As late as March 27, 2022, Zelensky had shown the courage to defend the results of the Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in public before Russian journalists – and this despite the fact that NATO had already decided at a special summit on March 24, 2022, not to support these peace negotiations.” (Ibid)
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The Washington Post reported April 5 that in NATO, continuing the war is preferred to a cease-fire and negotiated settlement: “[yellow=red,2,300]For some in NATO, it’s better for Ukrainians to keep fighting and dying[/glow] than to achieve a peace that comes too soon or at too high a price for Kiev and the rest of Europe.” Zelensky, he said, should “keep fighting until Russia is completely defeated.”
BORIS JOHNSON’S MESSAGE TO UKRAINIANS ON APRIL 9, 2022: WE MUST CONTINUE THE WAR
On April 9, 2022, Boris Johnson arrived unannounced in Kiev and told the Ukrainian president that the West was not ready to end the war. According to Britain’s Guardian on April 28, PM Johnson had “instructed” Ukrainian President Zelensky “not to make any concessions to Putin”:
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Johnson brought two simple messages with him to Kiev. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. The second is that even if Ukraine is willing to sign some agreements with Putin on guarantees, but that the collective West is not.
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Johnson took the position that the collective West, which as recently as February had suggested that Zelensky should surrender and flee, now feels that Putin is not really as powerful as they had previously imagined. Moreover, there is an opportunity to put pressure on him. And the West wants to take it.”
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The Neue Züricher Zeitung (NZZ) reported on April 12 that the British government under Johnson is counting on a Ukrainian military victory. Conservative Member of the House of Commons Alicia Kearns said, “We’d rather arm the Ukrainians to the teeth than give Putin a success.” British Foreign Secretary (and later Prime Minister) Liz Truss professed in a keynote speech that “victory for Ukraine (…) is a strategic imperative for us all and therefore military support must be massively expanded”. Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins warned: “Liz Truss risks inflaming the war in Ukraine for her own ambitions.”
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Following his second visit to Kiev on April 25, 2022, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. wants to use the opportunity to permanently weaken Russia militarily and economically in the wake of the Ukraine war. According to the New York Times, the U.S. government is no longer concerned with a fight over control of Ukraine, but with a fight against Moscow in the wake of a new Cold War.
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In his announcement of the partial mobilization, Putin stated on September 21, 2022:
“I would like to make this public for the first time today. After the start of the special military operation, especially after the talks in Istanbul, the Kiev representatives expressed quite positive views on our proposals. These proposals were mainly about ensuring Russia’s security and interests. But a peaceful solution obviously did not suit the West, which is why Kiev, after agreeing on some compromises, was actually ordered to nullify all these agreements.”
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This makes the Western intervention, which prevented an early end to the war, even more disastrous for Ukraine. Russia’s responsibility for the attack, which was contrary to international law, is not relativized by the fact that responsibility for the grave consequences that Ukraine’s Western supporters that ensued must also be attributed to the states that demanded the continuation of the war.
I know it's too long and most won't read but i feel it's very important to get to the root cause of the conflict and read the whole thing. Also published here
https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/how-the-chance-was-lost-for-a-peace-settlement-of-the-ukraine-war/It's like creating a monster that gets out of your control. US seems to now want to backtrack and find a way out of this, but its Ukrainians who have been brainwashed a bit too much, now are the ones who are not ready to stop the bloodshed. Aren't you still interested in weakening Russia, cause we all are totally ready to die for that
how do you stop that
