Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 145. (Read 77398 times)

In April, Ignat said on the Kiev TV channel that Ukraine had three MiG-29 brigades (about 72 units), it seems that after that Poland transferred another 14 MiG-29s and Slovakia transferred another 13 MiG-29s, a total of about a hundred units to the beginning of summer. Their influence on the course of the operation, I assess as minimal, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive with little or no air support. What makes you think that if you double or triple this number, it will decisively turn the balance of power in the air in favor of Ukraine? For the F16, a longer runway is needed; it’s trite in Ukraine that they have nowhere to take off from. There are no spare parts or repair teams for F16 in Ukraine. There are no trained and experienced pilots for F16 in Ukraine. The longer you wait for F16 deliveries to Ukraine, the more disappointed it will be.

For death during a special operation, Russia pays the family of a serviceman (volunteer or mobilized) more than 12 million rubles, for wounding 3 million rubles, a monthly reward of 195 thousand rubles, plus bonuses for wrecked armored vehicles, tanks, drones, aircraft, etc. Since the beginning of the year, about 150 thousand people have voluntarily signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense to participate in the special operation. I don't think that these people have any strong emotions for the Ukrainians, for them it's just a well-paid, harsh male job on a rotational basis. Like oil production in the north, only the climate is better.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers from. First you claimed that between 100 or 200 F-16s would not change anything for Ukraine, now you say they had more of their own jets before the war...

Ukraine had around 100 fighter jets total before the war (of various types) which included less than 70 MiG-29, so getting even 100 F-16s would be a greater firepower than they ever had in store.


Especially the ones that had a Russian bomb dropped on their city by mistake, or those who are in fear of getting drafted, or those whose family members were drafted and sent to Ukraine...
Don't forget about the families of those who died. Maybe they don't care because they got a Lada, or the government officials paid their respects by baking them a cake.
I'm guessing you can sleep well because you don't live in or near Belgorod, or in Kursk where those warehouses blew up.

Oh I, remember Afghanistan, as much as Russia remembers it. The America retreat from Afghanistan is not a military defeat (yet certainly not a political success) and it is not inherited from Obama (it was JW Junior, one of the most unqualified ever presidents) either, it is merely cutting economic loses ... after 20 years of occupation they figured out that it was much better to have the Taliban fighting Iran with American equipment. plus the point is now clear: attack the US and there will be no hole in the earth you can hide in.

Now, to the real issue here:

The RF wants Crimea, US is as of today supporting all efforts to either return it to Ukraine or put it into an untenable position.

The key here is if the US can afford a peace in which the RF meets the objective of taking land from Ukraine to secure Crimea and Sebastopol (since it failed in anything else already, no government change, military stronger than ever, more countries joined NATO, Europe nearly united against the RF invasion, young workers running away, low growth, diplomacy problems, ...). My take is that the US has less allies an less powerful in the global context that it used to have. Any US president should understand that if Europe has to be dealing with the RF because the US left them with the problem, they should not expect any help with China (which to be honest is a good commercial partner for Europe, as the RF was before Putin started reading the wrong books).

I believe Trump will do whatever he wants, because I think that there is a substantial base of people in America that will support him even if proven that he has killed Christmas. He does not have to sell anything really, nor respond to any action... anything said against him is met with insults, self-victimization and accusations of partisanship. If he wants to support Ukraine he will find a excuse ("defend the US interests or whatever") and if not... the same ("not spending money blah blah...").

If elected, will the Republicans dare to o the right thing or would they simply succumb to doing the opposite of whatever the democrats do?

I know where Ukraine is on the world map. But only if I use a modern map. Russia was there on the world map for centuries longer than Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine used to be part of Russia. Why did they rebel?


Suspended For Providing Balanced News On Ukraine

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/suspended-providing-balanced-news-ukraine
They concern a Radio New Zealand, or RNZ, broadcasting employee — unnamed, but everyone in the small New Zealand broadcasting world will soon know who it is — who has been placed on leave while their professional conduct is investigated. Obviously, a career hangs in the balance.

The malign ghosts of Orwell's 1984 stalk this story.

'Russian Garbage'

This unnamed person in RNZ committed the cardinal sin of "inappropriate editing" of incoming Reuters news feeds on the war in Ukraine to insert "Russian garbage" in the contemptuous words of Paul Thompson, chief executive of RNZ. That is to say, they drew on Russian news sources to insert balancing pro-Russian material to the incoming Western news agency feeds. The Guardian tells us that in fact accurate information about Ukraine was added to the Reuters copy:

"The articles in question made a range of amendments: adding the word 'coup' to describe the Maidan revolution; changing a description of Ukraine's former 'pro-Russian president' to read 'pro-Russian elected government'; adding references to a 'pro-western government' that had 'suppressed ethnic Russians'; and on several occasions adding references to Russian concerns about 'neo-Nazi elements' in Ukraine."

And more truth was added to the story, The Guardian says:

"In one article, a paragraph was added reading: 'The Kremlin also said its invasion was sparked by a failure to implement the Minsk agreement peace accords, designed to give Russia speakers autonomy and protection, and the rise of a neo-Nazi element in Ukraine since a coup ousted a Russian-friendly Ukrainian government in 2014.'

...

The war in Ukraine now winds steadily towards its inevitable pro-Russian denouement. Russia clearly has the military edge and this will not change now. Billions of dollars’ worth of supplied U.S./NATO equipment continues to be destroyed in combat.
...

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This is a clear example of the lies of Ukraine. Russia usually launches missiles and drones at night, but when some important person arrives in Kyiv, it is mandatory to set off an air raid alert to demonstrate to the distinguished guest all the horrors of war. Little lying asshole, tell me how you shot down six Calibers and six Daggers again.

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Right now the media still proclaim Ukraine is winning and then countries like South Korea flash all the news on their local media praising Zelensky and appreciating Olaf Scholz.
You really can see who in this world promotes war and not peace when they could just ask Ukraine to negotiate and stop the war. I doubt Putin will even attack Ukraine in the first place if they are just listening to its demand to not extend NATO.

For the West, this is just another war like Afghanistan and Iraq or but for Russia, this is an existential threat that they could end up like Afghanistan if NATO surrounds them.

Tnx. Biden is no stranger to humiliating military defeats. Let me remind you that his presidency began with a crushing fiasco in Afghanistan, and he came to power precisely on promises to withdraw troops from there and end the conflict. Although the Doha peace agreement with the Taliban was signed by Trump, who also wanted to play this card in his election campaign. Thus, both candidates in their election campaign sought to use the powerful trump card of a peaceful settlement of the protracted Afghan conflict, which they inherited from the Obama administration. I think the topic of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will also become a similar trump card in the 2024 election campaign for both Trump and Biden, and it doesn’t matter who plans to participate in this political show. Society loves victory and dislikes defeat, but even more society does not like protracted military conflicts with murky goals at the expense of taxpayers.

I think even after the crushing victory of Russia, the media in the USA will convincingly explain to ordinary Americans why this is a victory, not a defeat - some Russians (from Russia) killed other Russians (from Ukraine) and this is a good waste of American money. And damn it's hard to argue with that, given that most ordinary Americans can't seem to find Ukraine on the world map.

Nice tale. It is much more unprofitable to finish the conflict without a victory. US not liking war loosers when paying big tax for having the biggest and possibly the best military at least in terms of capability.

But there is a clear risk of the Republicans wanting to false-end this conflict a then having to pay again the price of a cold war during the next decade. It would be pretty much in the line of the international gaffes of Trump (like fucking the pacific trade agreement, fucking the Iran non-proliferation deal, leaving top-secrets in the hallway...). But de Santis or others are unlikely to know much better either.

However, if they make the White House, they would have access to the information and perhaps see things differently, who knows. IMO Trump is pretty much a Russian agent.

Well when you are over optimistic it is normal to write these things,by the way how do you welcome African delegation who tomorrow will be in Russia with Kalibr 47 missiles who luckily got all shot down by Patriot air defense systems?
You have a strange way of welcoming guests there in Russia and for me this is enough to never set foot there even when the regime of Putin will be changed and there will be again the normal Russia running business as usual.

As for Biden don't worry he has over 75% support for supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes as Ukraine is fighting for democracy against autocratic regime that Putin has put Russia in these last couple of years.

I think that there are good chances for the conflict to end in 2023, perhaps in the fall or towards the end of the year, maybe at the beginning of 2024. Because in January next year the active phase of the US election campaign will begin, and it is extremely unprofitable for Biden to reach the finish line of the election campaign racing with the unfinished conflict in Ukraine. And by and large, it doesn’t matter to him whether Ukraine wins or not, even the loss of Ukraine is better than the continuation of the conflict before the elections. Why am I talking about the United States - because without the active support of the United States, the ability of Ukraine to continue to conduct active hostilities will be calculated in a couple of months, if not a couple of days.

Of course, Ukraine will not accept its defeat and will continue to resist in a guerrilla-terrorist format, but this is no longer a task for the regular army, but for special services and law enforcement agencies.

Thank you for your reply and it is helpful to know the viewpoint from both sides of the issue.I hope some agreement can be reached soon because with both parties not willing to compromise on their own terms for an agreement it looks unlikely there will be peace in the very near future.It is worrying for global citizenry who have no say whatsoever in the decisions their politicans make when those politicans seem to be detached form reality and only follow rhetoric in many instances.War is bad for everyone and the casualties are are mainly those who have no say in the matter.It is not a terrible grief to see those who enjoy combat and warfare to fall on the battlefield but a very sad affair to see conscripted citizens from both sides be forced into a bloodbath not to mention all the civilians and infrastructure,wildlife,environment and habitat caught up in this abomination.

It is already clear that the first stage of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has completely failed, but let's not jump to conclusions. Plan A and even plan B did not work, but what if the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine still has a trump card up its sleeve in the form of plan C? After all, we have not yet seen a single British Challenger 2 tank on the battlefield and at least three-quarters of the Western-trained Offensive Guards have not been involved. What if my assumptions about the inherent defect in the training of NATO instructors are not true and the lack of coordination is primarily due to the effective work of Russian electronic warfare? In addition to Bradley, to compensate for losses, the US emergency aid package presented by Blinken also includes secure communications. I also saw fresh announcements of urgent deliveries from Europe of minesweepers to replace those lost in the first days of the counteroffensive and a large number of air defense missiles. It seems that this is exactly what the Armed Forces of Ukraine need now, if not to break through the Surovikin line, then at least get closer to it and organize concentrated pressure. Let's see.

Looks like the 'greatest counter-offensive' has become the 'most humiliating counter-offensive'.  In most places what's left of the Ukrainians didn't get through the forward lines and not even close to the actual defensive belts.  And they lost another huge crop of soldiers and a bunch of the Western weapons to boot.  Thankfully the DU contamination of the farmlands will be more contained to a relatively narrow strip.

The Russians set a lot of traps some of which got tripped as I've come to expect, and the effects were impressive.  Have the Russians done the same amongst the more fortified defensive belts farther back?  I would expect so.  I would expect that Russia would fall back to the first defensive belt for no other reason than to not let the work on their various traps go to waste.  At least if they are confident that they can mostly pick off the NATO systems which are spreading DU contamination early.

Seems like it is effective technique to send high ranking generals, including Grasimov himself, to the operational areas.  Working with the higher level staff is a good way for the more junior officers to get noticed so I'm guessing that everyone is really trying as hard as they can.  Plus it has a good effect on morale of the whole military.  The down-side is that one can get killed as happened to a high ranking general recently.

I am highly confident that if I were a conscripted Ukrainian I would immediately recognize that the cause of my grief was a flood of NATO gear and I would be at least passively trying to get rid of the 30% or so which got through the corruption and on to the front lines.  I sometimes get the feeling like that may be what we are seeing at the present time.

Also we are seeing more mass surrenders which is also a good sign and long overdue.  We saw it early on, then not so much for a year or so.  I don't have a real strong hypothesis about why, but a few include:  1) Even when the Nazi's had free reign before the SMO, there were serving soldiers who were dis-satisfied.  They left the ranks, and 2) the ZioNazi SS commissars and so-called 'nationalists' upped their game and became even more brutal.  Although I've not heard of it, I would expect that they are exacting retribution against the family members of POW's back home since that a common tactic of these classes of scumbags.

More and more Ukraine's options shrink until pure terrorism is the only option left to them.  We'll just have to see how far NATO can push them in this direction.  Alas, it could be quite a ways farther since they have broad support in such methods from the entire 'Collective West' not the least of which being the financial and media power-houses.

I don't understand the reasons for this massive admiration of Ukrainians for Western weapons, it looks like a cargo cult. The F16 fighters are an approximate analogue of the MiG-29 fighters, of which Ukraine had noticeably more than the wildest expectations for the supply of F16, and most of them have already been spent. To prepare a pilot for F16 from scratch is a task for several years of training, it is possible to retrain with the MiG-29 in a few months, but does Ukraine even have so many horseless pilots? Recently, there were reports on the network about the pilot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major Vladislav Savelyev, who died in early June, who studied in the United States for two years and died in the first sortie.

Russian air defense is initially tuned to larger objects such as aircraft. Therefore, it may have some difficulties with intercepting small drones, Himars missiles or low-flying Storm Shadow missiles, but Ukrainian aircraft are shot down with enviable regularity, and if this does not happen every day, it is only because Ukraine has few aircraft in principle.

LOL what? The special operation in Ukraine does not interfere with the ordinary Russian at all. People here live as usual and do not wake up every night from air raid alerts. I think the majority of the townsfolk, with the possible exception of residents of the Crimea, Belgorod and Kursk regions, just do not follow the events in Ukraine too much. Almost a year and a half is too long to focus on one topic. But on the other hand, the overwhelming majority understand that the defeat of Russia will turn into a catastrophe and only await victory.

I see you guys are doing pretty well without me.

Russia was also groundlessly blamed for the explosions of the Nord Streams, and now it seems that the main version of the accusation is that Ukraine and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny are to blame for everything. And the CIA, they say, knew everything and tried to prevent the attack, but could not. At this rate, Ukraine will soon become synonymous with a terrorist state.

Yes, if. You started to speculate here that it would not change a thing. The thing is, it would.
They aren't probably going to get this much but it would make a difference and I hope they will get it and push Russians outside their borders.
If Ukraine were to do enough damage to make them run back to Russia I'm sure it would make life easier for everybody, even the average Russian who goes to work and watches TV every day hoping for the war to finally end. Since Putin doesn't want to end it, somebody else has to end it for him.


I'll tell you how Russians will react to this:
First link is US, so it's a lie because US is clearly anti-Russian, so it's fake news.
The second link is from another NATO country so obviously they will blame Russia because they're on Ukraine's side.
In the third link they're saying destroying a dam was a mistake, but maybe they mean a Ukrainian mistake
Still no evidence against Russia.

I love your cherry picking when you quote only these articles that fits your narrative. Why not initial US intelligence stance that Russia is responsible for it
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/07/US-intelligence-indicates-Russia-being-responsible-for-Ukraine-dam-attack-Report
Or Rishi Sunak saying that was Russia's new low:
https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-blasts-russias-new-low-ukraine-dam-explosion/
Finally, this messages from 205th separate motorized rifle brigade means nothing and it's not evidence against Russia:
https://t.me/mototroopers_205/1033

Propaganda works well. If you will show damaged, destroyed or captured Leopard's and Bradley's from different angles, it will make image that Russia destroyed much more equipment than they actually did:
https://twitter.com/neythomas/status/1668576158533709827
Also, not everything what is shown in all these videos is complete destruction. At least part of Leopard's is getting evacuated from front line and will be rep[aired:
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668623359301783553

If.

Ukraine is asking the West for F16, because it is experiencing a dramatic shortage of front-line air defense, and the West has nothing special to offer on this request. I repeat once again, Ukraine is going to use F16 fighters not for their intended purpose, but as mobile air defense, because they do not have an effective antidote against planning bombs. Using things for other purposes is rarely a good idea.

Russia does not have serious problems with front-line air defense, so all F16s delivered to Ukraine (especially under the control of poorly trained pilots) will simply be shot down.

Nice, good for you.

Anyway, here's a video showing how Ukrainians are flushing rats from under a tank
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlE8g-hJlfM


200 fighter jets would not change anything? Since the beginning of the war Russia has lost over 300 planes. Obviously if Ukraine were to get 200 it would have complete air superiority, provided they'd have enough pilots to fly them.

Personally, I do not see any big and fundamental difference between the supply of military equipment and intelligence by NATO countries and the direct deployment of troops. Trying to distance yourself from participating in the conflict is laughable if your reconnaissance drone is coordinating your maritime drones and they are attacking a Russian warship in the Black Sea. The only difference between a NATO-Russia proxy conflict and a direct NATO-Russia conflict is that instead of NATO soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers are dying.

It is surprising to me why at least 10% of all NATO military assistance to Ukraine does not go in the form of direct targeted cash assistance to finance the Foreign Legion operating on the side of Ukraine. With better funding, which Ukraine obviously cannot afford, instead of the current 10-15 thousand bayonets, there could be 100-150 thousand of them and this would be a much more serious force.

Yep. The potential for non-nuclear escalation in the supply of arms is almost exhausted, even the supply of a hundred or two F16 fighters, which Ukraine so dreams of, will not noticeably change the current balance of power and it is not in favor of Ukraine. Then either peace talks on Russia's terms, or the entry of a NATO peacekeeping contingent with its subsequent defeat, or an exchange of nuclear strikes between the US, UK and Russia, I think everyone will get it. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves, Ukraine still has a chance to prove itself in the counteroffensive.

It is not surprising that Ukrainians are much better at handling Soviet-style tanks than unusual Western tanks after express courses to study them. Most of the burned Leopards in the Zaporizhia direction did not even have time to fire a single shot.