Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business
Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world. It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.
Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).
ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.
Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan? Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?
You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?
Revolt Raises Searing Question: Could Putin Lose Power?Russians with ties to the Kremlin expressed relief on Sunday that Mr. Prigozhin’s uprising did not spark a civil war. But at the same time, they agreed that Mr. Putin had come off looking weak in a way that could be lasting.
Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with Kremlin connections, said in a telephone interview that what once had seemed unthinkable was now possible: that people close to Mr. Putin could seek to persuade him not to stand for re-election in Russia’s presidential vote next spring. With Saturday’s events, he said, Mr. Putin had conclusively lost his status as the guarantor of the elite’s wealth and security.
The idea that “Putin is in power and provides stability and guarantees security — it suffered a fiasco on the 24th,” Mr. Remchukov said. “If I was sure a month ago that Putin would run unconditionally because it was his right, now I see that the elites can no longer feel unconditionally secure.”
“Stability” was the Kremlin’s refrain amid the 2020 referendum that cleared the way for Mr. Putin to serve two additional terms, until 2036. And it is the security of the Russian state that Mr. Putin describes as his guiding motivation for invading Ukraine.
Even amid the 16-month-old war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has been focused on normalcy at home. Mr. Putin has resisted hard-line calls to declare martial law or to close the country’s borders. For the elite, the sting of Western sanctions has been compensated by the new business opportunities of Russia’s wartime economy and a domestic market suddenly free of competition from many Western businesses.
But Mr. Prigozhin’s challenge to the Kremlin’s authority this weekend upended that calculus. The leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Mr. Prigozhin had his forces seize a Russian military headquarters in the south, then sent a column of troops north toward Moscow, vowing to enter the capital. The crisis was defused late Saturday, when Mr. Prigozhin agreed to pull back his forces in a deal that allowed him and his troops to avoid prosecution.
The immediate threat was averted. But in the process, Mr. Putin lost more than his reputation for providing stability: The fact that Mr. Prigozhin and his forces were not being punished punctured Mr. Putin’s reputation as a decisive leader who would not tolerate disloyalty.
That impression was compounded by reports from Russian military bloggers that Prigozhin forces had shot down Russian combat aircraft. Mr. Putin also called Mr. Prigozhin a traitor after he launched his insurrection — and after the mercenary chieftain questioned Mr. Putin’s very rationale for the war in Ukraine. Those transgressions seemed to melt away with the deal that ended the crisis.
Experts said this made Mr. Putin look less in control of the Russian state than previously known. And foreign adversaries were quick to seize on that theme.
