I come here from time to time, usually after a few weeks break from posting in this thread to check if anything has changed. In fact one of my posts is on the very first page of this thread because I feel sympathy for Ukrainians since my parents lived in a country "liberated" by the Soviet Union and I know how people wanted to finally kick these liberators out of their country.
I'd never wish for any country to become a part of Russia, especially when that process is accompanied by what we saw in Bucha, or earlier in Katyn.
"Bucha butchery". Too many PR-related coincidences. This whole war rotates around PR bullshit.
There's just one issue with current warfare - everybody has a radio transmitter. You know what would have happened to you in WW2 if you were a civilian and had one? Why this time it should have been the other way? An idiot riding a bicycle talking over the phone gets shot, a guy who took the order and executed the civilian gets sentenced. Russia has failed to do the war properly - "Post office, telegraph, telephone, banks" ((c) Lenin, 1917 revolution) - neither was hit by initial strikes or later. Effect? Each civilian became a potential spy, informer, artillery corrector. Not mentioning stupid situation with russian soldiers using ukrainian sim-cards to do calls.
"Destroyed cities" - army of Ukraine is defending and choosing where to fight, with predictable consequences. So far russians didn't try playing "Stalingrad" anywhere.
Russia is not the USSR. Rather, Ukraine is the one using USSR tactics.
Ukraine started with the USSR tactics way back before 2014 by killing their own people in the Donbas area, as well as going over the border into Russia at times. Russia finally got sick of it, and the war started as Russia tried to stop Ukraine governmental USSR tactics.
If the US and Nato had not stuck their nose into it, it all would have been over in a couple of months. Russia simply would have stopped Kiev from harming their own people.
Russians wanted to change Ukraine - they clearly understood that conquering it will be like conquering 20 Chechnya's.
Neither is USSR but Ukraine tries to (miserably) resemble it when it comes to motivating people to go and die. Doesn't work in capitalist world. They promised "we'll pay out $300K" (15M UAH) to the relatives of KIA soldiers - didn't deliver. That is called fraud. And it's not the first time by "Ze" government. First was promising to pay over 400K UAH as an aid for a newborn child (it was from 12K up to 60KUAH=7.5K USD before Poroshenko and became flat ~45K UAH - 1,5KUSD spread through 3 years which was not even enough to buy "Pampers"), then they've refused to recognize death after Covid vaccine and pay out anything. (Only monetary cases reviewed, populist political promises are untouched)
Thing is that "people" in 2014 and people in 2024 - are very different. 10 years of propaganda and "adjusted" education did wonders. I have a friend who had spent 2 days to get mobilized "anywhere" literally on the first 2 days of war. "We were attacked, we must not surrender or agree to russian terms" was his motivation. Has has passed Bakhmut, Chernihiv, and other parts of the country I've never even heard of before the war. Now he has "left his brigade by himself" and faces a "bright" perspective of 5-12 years sentence, after 2+ years in trenches. (funny - he wanted to return but "go get attorney" has stopped him)
If Ukraine did play wisely in politics - this war would have never happened in the first place. Shortly after the start of the war - we've got official confessions from top politicians that Ukraine had at least 3-4 months to outplay plans of Russia. Nobody didn't even try; many people were openly laughing to Putin's "security assurance" proposals - I'd like to see them doing the same at the cemeteries where their friends are buried.
There are news of strong explosions on the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and "mainland" Ruzzia. For the moment there is no evidence of a successful strike in the area but there are some videos that may be just an active air defence or maybe an strike with a degree of success... or maybe failed. What is clear is that there is intention to strike and the previous weeks strikes may be opening the way for a future Ukrainian success here.
Basically - "who cares?". It's not that much critical anymore and even if it's destroyed - does Ukraine have enough forces to exploit this success? I doubt that. And if it doesn't - then it's again a pure PR/waste of resources bs that is performed all the time instead of real military operations. While russians try to destroy our military and infrastructure objects - our "volunteers" try to destroy some random something in the middle of nowhere instead, accomplishing only one task - making russians realize they are at war and need to go and fight.
It was stupid to attack Belgorod with limited forces for weeks instead of keeping silent/digging trenches for months and then doing insane Prigozhin-style breakthrough at that part of the front, cutting off every bridge and communication device found on the way, all the way to Azov Sea and maybe some other directions.
[moderator's note: multiple posts have been merged]