Some current news on the subject. Funny that republicans just want to separate Ukraine funding so it could be voted on separately instead of lumping it together with US budget, but of course it's being spun differently. Think we all know that Ukrainian aid will pass in some form this time around, but of course its only a start and will have to repeat again in November/December and then every few months leading closer and closer to US presidential election
Pentagon makes last-minute push to save Ukraine aid as shutdown looms
Pentagon officials are making a last-minute lobbying push on Capitol Hill Saturday to prevent Congress from stripping aid to Ukraine from a funding agreement
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“Republicans are forcing us to choose between supporting Ukraine and averting a shutdown, and the administration is very concerned,” a congressional aide said.
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“They are willing, and they are able, to abandon our allies,” DeLauro said of the GOP. “Let us continue to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom.”
There are also elections in Slovakia
With Kremlin apologist leading the polls, Slovakia vote threatens country’s support for Ukraine
Slovaks have been voting in a knife-edge parliamentary election on Saturday that could radically reshape Slovakia’s approach to Ukraine and create deep rifts within NATO and the European Union.
The frontrunner, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has made no secret of his affinity for the Kremlin during the election campaign. He has criticized the West for supporting Ukraine and adopted a strong anti-US message, even accusing Slovakia’s President Zuzana Čaputová of being an “American agent.” He has said that if elected, he would stop sending weapons to Ukraine and block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions.
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And now to Serbia
NATO bolsters forces in Kosovo as US urges Serbia to withdraw from border
White House calls Serbian military deployment ‘very destabilizing.’
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Of course there is also Africa, Armenia etc...
Soviet Union collapsed because they overestimated their strength, and had no mechanism to scale down, so the west just opened as many fronts as they could to smartly overextend the Soviets. Ironically i believe this is exactly what we're seeing now.
What is unclear is who those "fronts" may be playing in favour of. My guess is that Putin is trying some payback where he can harm European interests for a cheap price, but there is plenty of time for pay-back. One thing at a time, let's first continue to allow Ruzzia to self-demilitarise itself.
Regarding US funding, we all know there are many Republicans that are keen on allowing Putin to achieve something that could be interpreted as victory. Things sometimes are seen different once you are in government if they ever get there, but for now, Ukraine has enough to have the initiative.
RE Serbia, the "front" was already open, is not really that new. I guess Serbia is just checking how big may the appetite of the US to replay Balkans war II.
Regardless, the war in Ukraine requires an strategy shift. The best outcome at this point would be taking Tokmak, which would fall short of a more decisive outcome that could make Ruzzia rethink their plans.
My guess is that with sufficient aviation and the right munitions, the front dynamics could be changed, but that will not happen until Ukraine gets proper support, instead of timid packages.
For me it's quiet clear. Fundamentally, previously expansionism, colonialism, spheres of influences etc... were all decided by force (hard power). Then we got to the pinnacle of that with MAD, so military forces were pretty even on that front. Then US ingeniously realized that expansionism can still continue but instead of hard power which it didn't have much advantage in anymore, it can be achieved with soft power, taking cookies away from places that didn't matter Africa, south America etc... and strategically giving them out in places where they mattered the most, countries bordering their opponents, and places of conflict. China picked up on that and started playing on that field with their Belt and Road Initiative, Russia was too weak to play on that field so it couldn't do anything but watch NATO expanding to its borders with cookies (soft power). Russia was gutted to bare bones with only Russian speaking Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan left in its sphere, it realized that this was an existential threat and drew a red line indicating that they were willing to protect the remainder of the sphere in the only playing field it had a chance in, which was going back to the hard power. But as we know US ignored it, and democratic cookies still showed up in Ukraine and then Kazakhstan and Belarus. Of course Europe saw the soft power expansionism and didn't really cared much for it, but had little choice in the matter. Now essentially gloves are off, all sides will hit where it'll hurt the most and Ukraine is nothing but a small piece in this puzzle. Masses are conditioned to consume and live today by borrowing from the future, so naturally they're not willing to sacrifice short term for some long term gain, thus are more exposed to war fatigue . This is easily exploitable by populist and is less of a concert in a less democratic states, so it has little to do with Putin, just an easy way to get/stay in power for career politicians. Thus US elections shouldn't really be a surprise for anyone.
US passed 45day stopgap budget without Ukrainian aid, so now if they want to send more money it'll have to be voted on separately, so everyone will have to reveal their position, which might carry liability for republicans who'll have to fall in line and get behind on the policy of their next candidate.
And
A party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia, official results show, in what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine...Speaking after his victory, Fico doubled down on his rhetoric, said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks...Fico has pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch backing for Ukraine...this will likely change under Fico, who has blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s President Vladimir Putin into launching the invasionNot a lot of good news for Ukraine, guessing to intersept the news headlines UK former Secretary of State for Defence decided to publishes this optimistic piece to raise the morale. It's filled with typical propaganda you'd expect out of former Secretary of State, except for this one piece.
Ukraine is winning. Now let’s finish the job
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Ukraine can also play its part. The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but the fact is that Russia is mobilising the whole country by stealth. Putin knows a pause will hand him time to build a new army. So just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilisation.
So apparently Russia is stealthy mobilising the whole country
thus old man from another country demand more and younger Ukrainian blood to the front lines. Should Ukraine start conscripting 16yr olds now?
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak."
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War
