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What is going on in Georgia??
A fresh Russian push will test Ukraine severely, says a senior general
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But he sounds troubled as he assesses Ukraine’s battlefield prospects. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.
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Ukraine’s immediate concern is its high-ground stronghold in the town of Chasiv Yar, which holds the keys to an onward Russian advance to the last large cities in the Donetsk region (see map). It is probably a matter of time before that city falls in a similar way to Avdiivka, bombed to oblivion by the Russians in February, says the general.
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Russia has already won a tactical success in the south-west in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size. Ukraine is some way from stabilising the situation, while Russia is throwing “everything” it has to achieve a bigger gain. The Russian army is not the hubristic organisation it was in 2022, says the general, and is now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”.
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Russia has a total of 514,000 land troops committed to the Ukrainian operation, he says, higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by General Christopher Cavoli, nato’s top commander. The Ukrainian spymaster says Russia’s northern grouping, based across the border from Kharkiv, is currently 35,000-strong but is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops. Russia is also “generating a division of reserves” (ie, between 15,000 and 20,000 men) in central Russia, which they can add to the main effort.
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May will be the key month, says the general, with Russia employing a “three-layered” plan to destabilise the country. The main factor is military. Even though America’s Congress belatedly gave the go-ahead for more military aid, it will take weeks before it filters through to the front line. It is unlikely to match Russia’s stock of shells or provide an effective defence against Russia’s low-tech, destructive guided aerial bombs.
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General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says.
But what does General Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, know, right?
...After that [Switzerland peace conference next month], communication with Russia may take place and Russia can be part of the talks. Because you are right: In the end, you cannot put the war to an end without both parties.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, hints at starting negotiations with Russia, now just need to change that law against negotiations with Putin that Zelenskyy signed.
Georgia's Law on transparency of foreign influence, based on US's Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), requires all organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as agents of foreign influence. Who could possibly not like more transparency and accountability for foreign funds and influences? Well, it doesn't serve your purpose when you're shoveling money there to buy influence. But it passed in 2nd reading, and 3rd and final reading should happen this month.
Now how is this relevant to topic at hand, instead of committing to one side or the other (and risking choosing the loosing side) it makes more sense to sit on a fence until a winner starts emerging. Each state has intelligence agencies/analysts/models, thus watching states pivot one way or the other is a good indicator of things to come. Think of it this way, what would it tell you if for example Belarus would start to distance itself and pivot away from Russia, do you think any country would start pivoting away from a projected winner?