Topic: Ryans' log - page 19. (Read 50746 times)

I added the invalidation point to the chart and edited my post to change the chart.
Invalidation of that count would be exceeding $607.90 before getting lows below $442.00

If you look in my chart from a couple of days ago, when I said "I think there is one more down before the big bounce" (or something to that effect, You see a horizontal line that says "Invalidation" Follow it to the left, to where it ends, and you will see the bottom of the wave-i. Once we move beyond that price, the count becomes invalid since a wave-4 cannot retrace into the price territory of wave-1. This is a rule of EW. At that point, I have to revise my count.

This rise looks corrective to me (lots of 3 wave patterns and lots of overlapping waves). Now this can change if we get a few more extensions up from here. That would turn the A & B into nested 1 & 2 waves. With this type of system, the only way to confirm a reversal, is to wait for invalidation of all near term bear counts. Unfortunately, this is at the $683 high. Reason #1 why you don't use EW by itself for trading.
Currently, I still see down as general trend. This doesn't mean you can't go long at the right times, just that you need to have a plan, and stick to your plan.

So that possible new count, is it also invalidated at 538.38?

For this update, I will first post the 4 hour chart with the three most likely paths in the short term.


All invalidations remain the same. If we hit my $547 target, this will invalidate the purple count.

Since my count from the last full update was invalidated, a larger degree impulse must have been completed. Somewhere in there I ended up a wave behind. So in an attempt to find it, I recounted the entire decline since $683. I did so on multiple time frames from 4hr down to 10 minute charts to check divergences of the different degrees of sub waves. In my quest, I seem to have found a better count, but with this rise having a slightly more powerful feeling to it, this count is not my top count... Yet!

This one is a bit more bearish and will definitely invalidate my Bullish count (blue in the chart above).


This count is more fitting because the power behind the steep drop-off is typical of a 3rd of 3rd wave rather than the 5th of 3rd. This also fits with the corrective rise we have seen over the last too days. It actually calls for it.  I'm not going to use this as my primary count until a lower low is made, and still only then if the bottom divergence grows larger. I just wanted to post this chart to keep it in mind.

Trade on... Safely!

I know you are busy and I really appreciate your insight. Got a couple of questions when you have time.

What made 485 the invalidation point? I thought it was 529, but a lot has happened since then. Just trying to learn rather than follow you like a puppy dog on this thread.

After 547 (not really all that far from here), are you looking at an impulse down that gets us lower than the recent lows? Or is this a beginning of a set of waves that have higher lows, higher highs, and carry us up in the medium term?

As always, thank you for your insight!

Your biggest fan,
vuduchyld

My "one more down" subwaves count was invalidated once it broke above $485.39 (wave-i of (v) of 5 low). This tells me that a larger degree impulse lower is complete. This resulted in the rise that we have had over the last two days.
Considering there is no hourly divergences to speak of, it's likely we still have a little rising left before we fall back.
This is the count for the current correction.


I see one more up (with a target of ~$547) before going down again.

I am trying to put together a full update to cover the last few days and what we might be looking at in the short term

Do you expect a bounce to 510-520 now and then maybe back down? Seems like it could go back down from here also and not go over 500.

 

This is a close-up of the recent action. It is easy to see 3 waves down since the (iv). This means that I am expecting one more down to find a somewhat significant bottom. This is if it's not THE bottom. Earlier, I thought a triangle was tracing out for iv, but sellers on Stamp had different ideas and made lower lows within the iv. Since the iv is nearly complete, I didn't bother adding a target for it, and the target for the final wave down is around $424 and change.



This is the chart with the three main outcomes that I outlined in the last update. Nothing has changed, but I just want keep everyone up to speed.

Tired?
Nah, but busy, yes!

Hope you're right and just tired Ryan.

You'd have to engage in time travel in order to get home a couple of weeks ago for you to get there before anything crazy happened!

Thanks, and I'm glad you guys are enjoying it!

In about an hour or so I should be home and I'll work up an update for what's to come.

Hopefully I get there before anything crazy happens

As always, thank you for sharing your insight in such a readable and humble way!!!

You da man.

I would love to! Unfortunately, I see a good possibility of one more down to $424.xx.
I can't post an update, because I'm on my phone. But I will as soon as I get back to my computer.

High-five Ryan, great charting. Tell me we can go up now please 

Here's another grateful reader, keep up the good work!

Thanks! I'm glad you are enjoying the thread

I do try to keep it informational and not just a chart with no explanation. I want people to know how I came to the conclusions that I did/do. That's why I explain a bit of the underlying psychology that causes certain movements to happen... That it's not just a random walk! Maybe they can eventually start applying the technique to their own charting.

Thanks Ryan. Not only the best analyzing thread but regular too, people usually get bored in few days.

The (iv) seems to be complete but I don't discount one more wave up before heading down in the 5th wave. Divergence is present on the 30 minute chart and if we get one more move up, it will only make it bigger and possibly show up on the hourly chart. If this wave-(iv) is complete, my target for the 5th wave down is around $452.15. This will likely save the Bull from drowning in blood, but this does not confirm that the Bullish count is the absolute count. To confirm that (at least for the mid-term), we must invalidate any chance of a shorter term bear count by getting through the $658.88 high from the 1st of July (the wave-(1) invalidation).

This is the current situation minus a few bars of sideways movement.


This decline also made a low far enough below the wave-I low, that it could end up being the wave-III instead. This is confirmed by a failure to break above $538.38 (the wave-I low from the 14th of June) after the next wave down completes. This also happens to be the invalidation of the wave-III but this does not invalidate the wave-(1).

Below, a chart with these three options laid out. Blue being the Bullish count. Red being the same Bearish count that I have been updating for weeks and a new Purple count showing the path if this decline is a wave-III. Each with their respective invalidation points in their respective colors



Have fun!