Topic: Ryans' log - page 18. (Read 50746 times)

Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me. 
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.

Yes I do! I do also use other tools and not just EW in my own system.

The point of this thread was to show the merit of EW and the few indicators I used here to help determine where we are in a count. Or to show that markets are not just a random walk and that they can be reasonably "predicted" with a fair bit of certainty once you determine the probabilities. If I only got 1 or 2 targets correct, I could understand people's skepticism, or belief that it is all luck, but I have called this market for the last 2 months with a success rate better than the flip of a coin (as many here like to say). I just wanted to make others aware that it is possible to have an edge by using TA and EW. In the end, it all comes down to how well you can read the charts, and interpret what they are telling you.  

Ryn, are you actually trading with your possible predictions in the market ?

He ain't lying! If I could reach through these wires....
I would love to, but I never know how busy I will be from day to day so I would hate to get investors together only to feel that I let them down because I can't devote the time to trade as much as I'd like to.


Your welcome and I hope you are able to apply the methods herein!


I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya ) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.

This is what I am seeing for the next couple of days. A couple of targets in the chart to complete 1 of V.


EWO is still making lower lows so it's unlikely the bottom of 1 is in. Labeled as iii a pull back to $485ish is what I am looking at for the rest of today. Tomorrow or Tuesday should find a minor bottom and allow the market to breath a bit. I will update again as necessary

HODL or don't... It's your choice really, but as always, have fun doing what you're doing!

Wow thanks. So we are probably going to see some real fireworks if it plays out one way or another. Perhaps even a final capitulation bottom, something like July 2013 with huge volume and days of struggling and fighting between bulls and bears. That last wave down took a couple of weeks but right now everything seeems to move at a much slower pace

Thank you for your great analysis. Appreciated. Nice to see something actually useful here at bitcontalk for once.

I annoyed OP in private for quite some time to start a PAMM and nothing so is time to start a public petition for RyNinDaCleM start a damn fucking PAMM

Yes, it seems that my original wave-E was the correct one. I changed it because of the scale of the waves preceding it. The triangle is indeed complete and we are heading down in the purple count. As for targets and wave numbers, I will have to work up an update but you math skills sound about right for a target if it is the 5th. I did post an alternate count a week or two ago outlining a count where the triangle was 4 of III. If that is the case, then the initial target will be higher since it's for a lower degree wave. I have a few things to do this morning so I will just leave this for now

If it's the V of (C):


If it's the 5 of III:

Many thanks for the excellent analysis! This has become one of my favorite TA threads, and probably second best EW thread on btctalk, only after masterluc's one 
If I understand correctly, given the recent break of 487 we should now have entered the V wave of the purple count. Noob (and obvious  ) question here: what could be a reasonable downside target? Following what I understand are some tyipical EW rules the 5th wave can be 0.382 or 0.618 times the whole distance from the start of wave I (683) to the end of wave III (441), giving a target of 410 or 355 respectively... or even less if we have extensions etc!! 

The triangle Wave-D will be complete in the next hour or so if it's not already. The next bounce off the upper trend line will be around $514 however, a triangle wave-E does not necessarily HAVE to hit the upper resistance to complete the triangle, it only needs to change direction (ie a quick spike to the triangle apex will do). So be on the lookout for heavier resistance  and weakening volume as we begin to move higher.

This is just a quick update about the triangle that seems to be manifesting itself in the charts. Breaking below $487 before first getting a rise to complete the triangle will invalidate it and we will be looking down to find the next target. I have also added the possibility of a triangle B wave that would have a C reaching up to the $590's. I think the latter is much less likely, but we will have to see where this goes. Notice how the triangle fits into both of the bearish counts in the second chart.







Happy weekend!

Sorry, all! I've been busy again for the last few days. Please "bear" with me. I haven't even been watching the charts a lot so I'm a bit behind on my charts, so the next few updates may be a bit scatterbrained. I may post many different counts while I try to get back in my groove.


Right now,my top two counts are the bearish corrective IV/(2). IV if we stay below 538.38 and (2) if we invalidate the III. We now have a few waves that can be counted as the beginnings of the triangle I spoke of in my last post.

This is the triangle count. Keep in mind that the lines can be adjusted until invalidation so these (especially the lower) are not concrete.


The purple wave-III/IV count is still holding up and the triangle would fit in nicely to the IV/4.


The current situation seems a little bullish for at least the short term, but it still lacks the conviction that signifies a reversal. This count is where I feel we are (if not the triangle above). I used OKCoin for this one because Bitstamp chart is terrible right now, and OKCoin is usually a little clearer. Even OKCoin has many overlaps and many 3 wave moves which still looks corrective to me.


This is a complex correction (if it completes as counted). Labeled WXY each has a 3 wave structure, ABC, and we would be in the C of Y. OKC has finished a leading diagonal for 1 and is in the pull-back now. If this count plays out, look for prices above 3400CNY when it's all said 'n done. This would correspond with the red (2) in the second chart.

Enjoy!

 

I just want to add;
I counted the C of (B) on a 10 minute chart, and it appears to be missing a wave. So, first down, then up in that 5 wave (C). Look out for $486-476.

Another option for the wave 4/IV is a triangle. I'm not going to post a pic of it yet since there are not enough waves to even draw it out so I'm not going to freehand it in. But as soon as it looks like it's forming, I will post it up.

Today, we had invalidation of my possible Bullish count that would have meant the bottom was in. This doesn't mean go short with max leverage, but it no longer looks good for the bulls as far as this rise is concerned. It no longer has a forced or otherwise impulsive structure to it. I didn't bother to move the labels around since I posted this count two days ago, but the break of 493.98 would have been the 4 until it fell below that mark. $493.98 was the top of the leading diagonal wave-1.


It becomes more probable that this was an ABC. After the downtrend we had, the C may end up being an even larger (A), but that is unknown until we get higher highs.
This is a peek at what that scenario could look like and a target should we get this count. Expect 5 waves up to complete the larger (C).

There is a mild Bullish divergence on the hourly EWO, so this could play out in the near term.

I doubt 442$ will fall soon. First there's an inflection point that decides going up to maybe 560$, which is now major resistance, or deflating to 480$.

It is very possible! However it cannot be confirmed without going below $442 as the very next move. This doesn't mean in one spike, but it must not rise above 538.38 first.

Is the purple count now starting to materializing?

We got that one more up. No $547, but it is now considered a completed ABC, but... With a little more progress in the last 24 hours, there is a count that could turn into much more for the Bullish case. I'm not going to say the bottom is definitely in, but this is looking fairly promising for the shorter term. This count can also fit into the bearish wave-(2) and even the extra count I posted yesterday for the wave-4. So it's not certain which it is yet. However, this rise has enough extension to allow for a nearly complete impulsive count. Another reason this is looking better is that there is still no divergence to speak of in the hourly indicators (RSI, MACD). If we rise from here, we can expect a pullback soon after and also another rise after that, that could equal the rise off the $442 low until now. The size of that next wave if/when it happens, will help decide if it's a 3rd or a larger C and will paint a better picture of the current market conditions.


This can also drop from here and end the correction I was talking about yesterday.

The validity of the Purple Bearish count is in jeopardy. A completed impulse here will likely invalidate it in the next day or two. All of this lies in the hands of buyers. Do they have enough strength to go higher? Will the bears take the market back? We'll soon find out

Great explanation. Thanks!