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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 16. (Read 192889 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 06:18:26 PM
#1311
Quote from: Zaih on May 08, 2013, 02:41:02 AM
You can barely even notice the increase in the expected profit anymore..

Poor Satoshi Dice. I guess people are getting smarter now & not gambling

I think part of the problem is that the actual profit is so far ahead of the expected profit that the x-axis scale has to be larger than usual to fit them both on the graph.  That has the effect of reducing the visual effect of changes on either line.

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on May 08, 2013, 03:53:45 PM
This thread is going a little off the rails. No one here should be making claims about the psychology of child rearing. Pun intended.

It took me a while to find the pun, and I'm still not sure I have it.  Rear means "to raise" and also "butt".  Is that it?

Quote
Total of 45 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-08 03:11pm (up to block 235205)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   141317 |       3 (0.00002) |  138949 |    2365 |    1788.28 |    3843.42 |   170.76 |  -2055.14 | 214.923
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13076 |       0 (0.00000) |   12496 |     580 |     178.46 |       0.48 |    27.45 |    177.97 |   0.270
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14776 |       2 (0.00014) |   14274 |     500 |     208.52 |     320.37 |    17.51 |   -111.84 | 153.636
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25471 |       5 (0.00020) |   24930 |     536 |     611.74 |     433.91 |    14.63 |    177.83 |  70.930
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24657 |       5 (0.00021) |   24165 |     487 |     876.64 |     606.61 |    22.20 |    270.03 |  69.197
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30653 |      13 (0.00043) |   30192 |     448 |    1668.13 |    1830.96 |     1.57 |   -162.83 | 109.761
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31078 |      35 (0.00115) |   30515 |     528 |    2198.01 |    1740.45 |   117.01 |    457.55 |  79.183
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22396 |      41 (0.00187) |   21840 |     515 |    2427.04 |    1578.14 |    48.56 |    848.89 |  65.023
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27355 |     116 (0.00431) |   26817 |     422 |    6078.82 |    8662.03 |    13.31 |  -2583.20 | 142.495
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39983 |     314 (0.00801) |   38882 |     787 |    8463.91 |    6951.79 |    10.32 |   1512.11 |  82.135
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   154885 |    2391 (0.01550) |  151836 |     658 |   43255.38 |   37582.51 |     2.59 |   5672.87 |  86.885
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26943 |     618 (0.02328) |   25928 |     397 |    8009.41 |    8619.67 |    15.22 |   -610.26 | 107.619
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    98371 |    3010 (0.03073) |   94927 |     434 |   43648.37 |   38880.57 |     9.52 |   4767.79 |  89.077
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32020 |    1464 (0.04646) |   30049 |     507 |    9899.10 |   10711.95 |    25.46 |   -812.85 | 108.211
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39718 |    2439 (0.06206) |   36861 |     418 |    7969.98 |    7913.06 |    31.44 |     56.91 |  99.286
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56730 |    5141 (0.09151) |   51041 |     548 |   17180.62 |   18723.15 |     7.65 |  -1542.53 | 108.978
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   222603 |   27304 (0.12300) |  194673 |     626 |  101649.47 |  100916.66 |   101.02 |    732.81 |  99.279
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   125373 |   22876 (0.18343) |  101838 |     659 |  180191.62 |  181641.12 |  3315.35 |  -1449.50 | 100.804
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   302277 |   73573 (0.24400) |  227955 |     749 |  380699.59 |  366766.67 |  2323.12 |  13932.91 |  96.340
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   293766 |  107711 (0.36753) |  185353 |     702 |  596431.09 |  587674.40 |  1013.72 |   8756.68 |  98.532
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1250820 |  609547 (0.48810) |  639281 |    1992 |  922371.45 |  903943.02 |  2926.32 |  18428.43 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   721924 |  359879 (0.49968) |  360340 |    1705 |  705190.64 |  687667.70 |  6523.45 |  17522.94 |  97.515
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   416335 |  305282 (0.73491) |  110120 |     933 |  313200.96 |  305815.50 |  6173.00 |   7385.45 |  97.642
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    95037 |   74901 (0.79391) |   19444 |     692 |   66618.58 |   64965.99 |  1188.15 |   1652.58 |  97.519
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    89379 |   75941 (0.85711) |   12660 |     778 |   83960.98 |   83194.32 |   401.28 |    766.66 |  99.087
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   140676 |  127990 (0.91574) |   11777 |     909 |   78322.75 |   77158.36 |     2.06 |   1164.39 |  98.513
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23089 |   20846 (0.97836) |     461 |    1782 |   25160.81 |   24738.44 |   241.23 |    422.37 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4336984 | 1765674           | 2549947 |   21363 |  857096.61 |  842107.91 |   337.83 |  14988.70 |  98.251
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123724 |   55773           |   67657 |     294 | 2751163.84 | 2690773.46 | 24406.21 |  60390.37 |  97.805
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4460708 | 1821447           | 2617604 |   21657 | 3608260.46 | 3532881.38 | 24744.04 |  75379.08 |  97.911
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75379.08163121 BTC (2.089%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3695.86357500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71683.21805621 BTC (1.987%)
Pending Liabilities:           -1.63397311 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71684.85202932 BTC (1.987%)
Profit This Month:             81.44368470 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14536137  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8176779  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6374.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3375.5  (53.0%)



nebulus
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
... it only gets better...
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 05:42:12 PM
#1310
For some people gambling is a good time not necessarily a product of unhappiness...
ThickAsThieves
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 03:53:45 PM
#1309
This thread is going a little off the rails. No one here should be making claims about the psychology of child rearing. Pun intended.
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 03:24:17 PM
#1308
Quote from: Korbman on May 08, 2013, 02:11:01 PM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 11:39:42 AM
Quote from: Korbman on May 08, 2013, 08:00:02 AM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.

Bwhahahaha, I love random statistics! Did you know that 95% of all people who have "rational" in their username aren't really rational at all? I like to visit the Bureau of Made Up Statistics to get my credible information as well....

Euhm... so you debunk a statistic I quote with what exactly?

I will give you a source where I get this from:
http://fatherhood.hhs.gov/charting02/Parenting.htm

I'm not debunking your statistics, those seem fine. What I'm actually finding immense humor in is your "logical" process:
  • Compulsive smoking and gambling is caused by unhappiness.
  • Abuse is a source of unhappiness.
  • Spanking can be considered abuse.
  • Therefore: Spanking = unhappiness = compulsive smoking and gambling.


To compare:
  • Large ships are made of metal.
  • The hammer in my toolbox is also made of metal.
  • Therefore: Hammer = Large ship

Good god this is off topic...

I think you are misrepresenting my position. I did not say 'Spanking = unhappiness = compulsive smoking and gambling'. I used spanking as an example to illustrate that abuse is still widespread. Although the average parent still finds it acceptable to 'spank' children, it is abuse by any rational definition. Dysfunctional behavior, such as compulsive addictions, are much higher with people who have had a poor childhood, lacking love, support, care. There are many statistical scientific studies about this.

I consider this an important topic for people interested to invest in sdice because society dissaproves of people/companies offering these services: cigarettes, drugs, gambling as society blames these addictions to be the cause of misery. However, the cause of misery is the abuse in childhood. The addictions are coping methods to cope with pain. The ones offering these services are helping these people cope with their problems, helping to feel them better. The abuse of our children is widespread and taboo. Just like 'spanking' women used to be normal only 50/100 years ago, today it is called 'beating', is considered outright abuse and unacceptable. The same is true for 'spanking' children. It's beating, outright abuse, and to me, unacceptable.  
Korbman
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 02:11:01 PM
#1307
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 11:39:42 AM
Quote from: Korbman on May 08, 2013, 08:00:02 AM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.

Bwhahahaha, I love random statistics! Did you know that 95% of all people who have "rational" in their username aren't really rational at all? I like to visit the Bureau of Made Up Statistics to get my credible information as well....

Euhm... so you debunk a statistic I quote with what exactly?

I will give you a source where I get this from:
http://fatherhood.hhs.gov/charting02/Parenting.htm

I'm not debunking your statistics, those seem fine. What I'm actually finding immense humor in is your "logical" process:
  • Compulsive smoking and gambling is caused by unhappiness.
  • Abuse is a source of unhappiness.
  • Spanking can be considered abuse.
  • Therefore: Spanking = unhappiness = compulsive smoking and gambling.


To compare:
  • Large ships are made of metal.
  • The hammer in my toolbox is also made of metal.
  • Therefore: Hammer = Large ship

Good god this is off topic...
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 11:39:42 AM
#1306
Quote from: Korbman on May 08, 2013, 08:00:02 AM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.

Bwhahahaha, I love random statistics! Did you know that 95% of all people who have "rational" in their username aren't really rational at all? I like to visit the Bureau of Made Up Statistics to get my credible information as well....

Euhm... so you debunk a statistic I quote with what exactly?

I will give you a source where I get this from:
http://fatherhood.hhs.gov/charting02/Parenting.htm
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 09:55:07 AM
#1305
Quote from: Korbman on May 08, 2013, 08:00:02 AM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.

Bwhahahaha, I love random statistics! Did you know that 95% of all people who have "rational" in their username aren't really rational at all? I like to visit the Bureau of Made Up Statistics to get my credible information as well....

Did you know that that one-in-a-million chances happen nine times out of ten?
Korbman
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 08:00:02 AM
#1304
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.

Bwhahahaha, I love random statistics! Did you know that 95% of all people who have "rational" in their username aren't really rational at all? I like to visit the Bureau of Made Up Statistics to get my credible information as well....
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 05:12:05 AM
#1303
Quote from: Zaih on May 08, 2013, 02:41:02 AM
You can barely even notice the increase in the expected profit anymore..

Poor Satoshi Dice. I guess people are getting smarter now & not gambling

That would be like saying, I guess people are actually stopping with smoking.

I don't think so because the source of compulsive smoking and gambling is unhappiness, and the source of unhappiness is being abused in child raising. Since today an astonishing 90% of mothers in the West still spank their children, I think compulsive smoking and gambling is here to stay.  

Logically there should also be a great inflow of new gamblers as sdice offers much better service than the old gambling world.


So, I'm guessing the current slow growth, is to be explained by the recent bitcoin bubble.

It is logical that bubbles attract gamblers. As they can get the same easy rush of winning without investing much energy.

I think many gamblers figured, 'better stop playing sdice and just hold onto my bitcoins', and were enjoying the winnings.

Now that the bubble is bursting they are getting less and less winning kicks from just holding bitcoins and will likely soon turn to the tables again.

We will discover the coming month whether my theory is true.
ar9
sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 04:08:21 AM
#1302
Quote from: Zaih on May 08, 2013, 02:41:02 AM
You can barely even notice the increase in the expected profit anymore..

Poor Satoshi Dice. I guess people are getting smarter now & not gambling

In the last 24 hours, Satoshi Dice made 400 BTC.
0_o

This just FUD or what?
Zaih
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 08, 2013, 02:41:02 AM
#1301
You can barely even notice the increase in the expected profit anymore..

Poor Satoshi Dice. I guess people are getting smarter now & not gambling
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 07, 2013, 09:55:47 PM
#1300
Most of the recent profit seems to be the result of a failed martingale progression:

Quote
Tue May  7 15:26:00 2013 <32000 234999 c147128be6fdda3e:1  1Hx1WXVC2pxePX64vGtNSFxa8rSbusjR4K BET    22.00000000 LOSE   -21.89000000
Tue May  7 15:32:44 2013 <32000 235001 bda7674f62de0208:0  1KevcTrG9vCqskLvBQNBeStvPqSTDmXHp2 BET    44.00000000 LOSE   -43.78000000
Tue May  7 15:36:42 2013 <32000 235003 2dea536e1d5873ac:1  1CcQd35vZoTGZrNzv6PQZuQL3SbTjSvt82 BET    88.00000000 LOSE   -87.56000000
Tue May  7 16:00:20 2013 <32000 235004 90e65f73a3fe18c2:0  18xY7aPb9wbGhQQqBArJTwdhfCpvhUubzw BET   154.00000000 LOSE  -153.23000000

Edit: and who knows - maybe the recent slow decline in profits was the result of a sequence of successful martingale progressions, maybe even by the same player.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 07, 2013, 09:53:54 PM
#1299
Quote
Total of 47 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-07 06:33pm (up to block 235057)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   140898 |       3 (0.00002) |  138535 |    2360 |    1783.45 |    3843.39 |   170.74 |  -2059.93 | 215.502
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13065 |       0 (0.00000) |   12485 |     580 |     178.31 |       0.48 |    27.45 |    177.82 |   0.270
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14680 |       2 (0.00014) |   14180 |     498 |     207.34 |     320.36 |    17.49 |   -113.02 | 154.508
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25428 |       5 (0.00020) |   24888 |     535 |     611.26 |     433.91 |    14.63 |    177.35 |  70.986
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24642 |       5 (0.00021) |   24151 |     486 |     876.50 |     606.61 |    22.20 |    269.88 |  69.208
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30609 |      13 (0.00043) |   30149 |     447 |    1667.43 |    1830.95 |     1.57 |   -163.52 | 109.807
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31030 |      35 (0.00115) |   30470 |     525 |    2197.34 |    1740.45 |   116.99 |    456.89 |  79.207
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22376 |      41 (0.00188) |   21820 |     515 |    2426.79 |    1578.14 |    48.56 |    848.65 |  65.030
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27345 |     116 (0.00431) |   26807 |     422 |    6078.70 |    8662.03 |    13.31 |  -2583.32 | 142.498
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39947 |     314 (0.00802) |   38848 |     785 |    8463.44 |    6951.79 |    10.31 |   1511.65 |  82.139
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   153888 |    2378 (0.01552) |  150854 |     656 |   43243.28 |   37573.49 |     2.58 |   5669.79 |  86.889
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26919 |     618 (0.02330) |   25906 |     395 |    8009.10 |    8619.67 |    15.21 |   -610.56 | 107.623
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    98114 |    3005 (0.03076) |   94677 |     432 |   43634.48 |   38878.90 |     9.51 |   4755.57 |  89.101
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31990 |    1462 (0.04644) |   30021 |     507 |    9898.08 |   10710.65 |    25.46 |   -812.56 | 108.209
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39662 |    2435 (0.06205) |   36809 |     418 |    7967.45 |    7909.69 |    31.44 |     57.75 |  99.275
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56677 |    5133 (0.09145) |   50997 |     547 |   17179.11 |   18720.41 |     7.65 |  -1541.30 | 108.972
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   221791 |   27199 (0.12298) |  193967 |     625 |  101539.76 |  100803.85 |   101.01 |    735.90 |  99.275
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   125156 |   22837 (0.18343) |  101661 |     658 |  180159.36 |  181596.94 |  3315.34 |  -1437.58 | 100.798
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   301722 |   73431 (0.24398) |  227546 |     745 |  380655.78 |  366718.43 |  2323.10 |  13937.35 |  96.339
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   293406 |  107578 (0.36753) |  185127 |     701 |  596371.23 |  587607.23 |  1013.71 |   8763.99 |  98.530
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1248163 |  608192 (0.48805) |  637982 |    1989 |  922004.53 |  903538.27 |  2926.30 |  18466.26 |  97.997
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   720052 |  358959 (0.49970) |  359395 |    1698 |  704638.33 |  687334.04 |  6523.42 |  17304.29 |  97.544
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   415380 |  304571 (0.73488) |  109881 |     928 |  313137.78 |  305749.62 |  6172.98 |   7388.16 |  97.641
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94692 |   74642 (0.79404) |   19361 |     689 |   66534.56 |   64909.97 |  1188.14 |   1624.59 |  97.558
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    89183 |   75785 (0.85721) |   12624 |     774 |   83889.41 |   83120.64 |   401.26 |    768.76 |  99.084
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   140337 |  127679 (0.91572) |   11751 |     907 |   78263.00 |   77096.64 |     2.05 |   1166.36 |  98.510
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23028 |   20795 (0.97840) |     459 |    1774 |   25157.94 |   24735.60 |   241.22 |    422.34 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4326519 | 1761485           | 2543732 |   21302 |  856192.63 |  841213.68 |   337.58 |  14978.95 |  98.251
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123661 |   55748           |   67619 |     294 | 2750581.23 | 2690378.56 | 24406.21 |  60202.66 |  97.811
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4450180 | 1817233           | 2611351 |   21596 | 3606773.86 | 3531592.25 | 24743.79 |  75181.61 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75181.61839869 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3684.85097500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71496.76742369 BTC (1.982%)
Pending Liabilities:            9.40307656 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71487.36434713 BTC (1.982%)
Profit This Month:           -116.04399749 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14492750  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8156771  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6353.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3367.4  (53.0%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 07, 2013, 02:18:12 AM
#1298
Quote
Total of 78 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-06 11:15pm (up to block 234926)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   140387 |       3 (0.00002) |  138032 |    2352 |    1774.89 |    3843.35 |   170.70 |  -2068.46 | 216.540
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12946 |       0 (0.00000) |   12367 |     579 |     176.87 |       0.47 |    27.44 |    176.40 |   0.268
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14315 |       2 (0.00014) |   13815 |     498 |     202.96 |     320.34 |    17.49 |   -117.37 | 157.831
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25389 |       5 (0.00020) |   24849 |     535 |     610.75 |     433.90 |    14.63 |    176.84 |  71.044
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24633 |       5 (0.00021) |   24143 |     485 |     876.24 |     606.61 |    22.19 |    269.63 |  69.229
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30585 |      13 (0.00043) |   30125 |     447 |    1666.86 |    1830.95 |     1.57 |   -164.09 | 109.845
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30996 |      35 (0.00115) |   30437 |     524 |    2196.74 |    1740.44 |   116.99 |    456.29 |  79.228
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22360 |      41 (0.00188) |   21804 |     515 |    2423.65 |    1578.12 |    48.56 |    845.52 |  65.114
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27332 |     116 (0.00431) |   26795 |     421 |    6078.45 |    8662.02 |    13.30 |  -2583.56 | 142.504
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39928 |     313 (0.00800) |   38830 |     785 |    8463.21 |    6950.54 |    10.31 |   1512.66 |  82.127
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   153213 |    2359 (0.01546) |  150199 |     655 |   43211.80 |   37541.67 |     2.58 |   5670.13 |  86.878
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26911 |     618 (0.02331) |   25898 |     395 |    8009.00 |    8619.67 |    15.21 |   -610.66 | 107.625
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    97759 |    3003 (0.03085) |   94325 |     431 |   43626.08 |   38878.22 |     9.50 |   4747.85 |  89.117
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31940 |    1460 (0.04645) |   29975 |     505 |    9892.14 |   10689.30 |    25.45 |   -797.15 | 108.058
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39604 |    2431 (0.06204) |   36755 |     418 |    7960.50 |    7901.26 |    31.44 |     59.24 |  99.256
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56629 |    5126 (0.09140) |   50957 |     546 |   17174.44 |   18708.21 |     7.65 |  -1533.77 | 108.931
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   220404 |   27018 (0.12293) |  192761 |     625 |  101428.38 |  100719.26 |   101.01 |    709.12 |  99.301
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   124794 |   22782 (0.18352) |  101354 |     658 |  180130.64 |  181564.37 |  3315.34 |  -1433.72 | 100.796
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   300913 |   73247 (0.24402) |  226923 |     743 |  380429.25 |  366626.93 |  2323.09 |  13802.32 |  96.372
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   292663 |  107288 (0.36747) |  184679 |     696 |  596290.96 |  587543.57 |  1013.69 |   8747.38 |  98.533
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1245673 |  606961 (0.48803) |  636725 |    1987 |  921005.03 |  902784.84 |  2926.29 |  18220.19 |  98.022
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   717655 |  357778 (0.49971) |  358192 |    1685 |  703959.03 |  686653.46 |  6523.38 |  17305.57 |  97.542
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   414167 |  303686 (0.73489) |  109554 |     927 |  313006.34 |  305635.55 |  6172.97 |   7370.79 |  97.645
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94565 |   74545 (0.79407) |   19332 |     688 |   66475.82 |   64843.45 |  1188.14 |   1632.36 |  97.544
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    88945 |   75588 (0.85728) |   12584 |     773 |   83859.42 |   83093.79 |   401.26 |    765.62 |  99.087
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   139909 |  127292 (0.91575) |   11711 |     906 |   78234.02 |   77067.72 |     2.05 |   1166.30 |  98.509
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22968 |   20744 (0.97840) |     458 |    1766 |   25144.14 |   24721.86 |   241.21 |    422.27 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4314018 | 1756753           | 2536014 |   21251 |  855010.77 |  840141.41 |   337.38 |  14869.36 |  98.261
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123565 |   55706           |   67565 |     294 | 2749296.98 | 2689418.61 | 24406.21 |  59878.37 |  97.822
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4437583 | 1812459           | 2603579 |   21545 | 3604307.76 | 3529560.02 | 24743.59 |  74747.73 |  97.926
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74747.73901096 BTC (2.074%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3671.62437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71076.11463596 BTC (1.972%)
Pending Liabilities:          -10.79555814 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71086.91019410 BTC (1.972%)
Profit This Month:           -516.49815052 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14448006  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8133691  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6331.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3357.8  (53.0%)



ar9
sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 05, 2013, 08:04:13 PM
#1297
Down 600 BTC this month!.... yeeeeeep!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 05, 2013, 08:02:20 PM
#1296
Quote
Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-05 02:55pm (up to block 234700)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   139424 |       3 (0.00002) |  137111 |    2310 |    1763.01 |    3843.29 |   168.33 |  -2080.28 | 217.996
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12682 |       0 (0.00000) |   12105 |     577 |     173.71 |       0.45 |    27.14 |    173.25 |   0.264
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14181 |       2 (0.00015) |   13682 |     497 |     201.36 |     320.33 |    17.49 |   -118.97 | 159.085
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25335 |       5 (0.00020) |   24797 |     533 |     609.79 |     433.90 |    14.62 |    175.89 |  71.156
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24583 |       5 (0.00021) |   24093 |     485 |     875.01 |     606.60 |    22.19 |    268.40 |  69.325
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30522 |      13 (0.00043) |   30063 |     446 |    1665.54 |    1830.95 |     1.56 |   -165.40 | 109.931
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30921 |      35 (0.00115) |   30363 |     523 |    2195.21 |    1740.44 |   116.99 |    454.77 |  79.283
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22294 |      41 (0.00188) |   21738 |     515 |    2422.13 |    1578.11 |    48.56 |    844.01 |  65.154
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27287 |     116 (0.00432) |   26750 |     421 |    6076.66 |    8662.02 |    13.30 |  -2585.35 | 142.546
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39847 |     313 (0.00801) |   38750 |     784 |    8461.37 |    6950.53 |    10.31 |   1510.84 |  82.144
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   152348 |    2349 (0.01548) |  149349 |     650 |   43163.07 |   37510.08 |     2.56 |   5652.99 |  86.903
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26864 |     617 (0.02331) |   25853 |     394 |    8006.79 |    8613.69 |    15.21 |   -606.89 | 107.580
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    97329 |    2991 (0.03087) |   93910 |     428 |   43606.57 |   38871.73 |     9.48 |   4734.84 |  89.142
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31895 |    1458 (0.04645) |   29932 |     505 |    9889.34 |   10685.23 |    25.45 |   -795.89 | 108.048
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39524 |    2424 (0.06198) |   36683 |     417 |    7954.91 |    7896.76 |    31.44 |     58.15 |  99.269
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56539 |    5120 (0.09144) |   50875 |     544 |   17168.84 |   18707.44 |     7.64 |  -1538.59 | 108.962
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   218637 |   26780 (0.12284) |  191234 |     623 |  101332.17 |  100600.98 |   101.00 |    731.18 |  99.278
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   124195 |   22667 (0.18348) |  100870 |     658 |  180103.57 |  181534.40 |  3315.34 |  -1430.82 | 100.794
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   299348 |   72868 (0.24403) |  225737 |     743 |  380130.10 |  366358.65 |  2323.09 |  13771.44 |  96.377
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   291861 |  107002 (0.36749) |  184167 |     692 |  596213.82 |  587472.13 |  1013.67 |   8741.69 |  98.534
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1242354 |  605377 (0.48806) |  634997 |    1980 |  920155.74 |  901998.28 |  2926.28 |  18157.46 |  98.027
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   713084 |  355477 (0.49968) |  355937 |    1670 |  702421.70 |  684987.68 |  6523.31 |  17434.01 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   412662 |  302574 (0.73487) |  109166 |     922 |  312819.31 |  305442.92 |  6172.95 |   7376.39 |  97.642
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94306 |   74345 (0.79411) |   19276 |     685 |   66116.77 |   64589.32 |  1188.12 |   1527.45 |  97.690
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    88453 |   75173 (0.85730) |   12513 |     767 |   83795.58 |   83027.30 |   401.23 |    768.27 |  99.083
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   139157 |  126613 (0.91579) |   11643 |     901 |   78156.37 |   76993.48 |     2.04 |   1162.89 |  98.512
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22875 |   20658 (0.97831) |     458 |    1759 |   25134.47 |   24712.16 |   241.20 |    422.31 |  98.320
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4295067 | 1749371           | 2524561 |   21135 |  853272.37 |  838460.58 |   334.44 |  14811.79 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123440 |   55655           |   67491 |     294 | 2747340.68 | 2687508.37 | 24406.21 |  59832.30 |  97.822
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4418507 | 1805026           | 2592052 |   21429 | 3600613.05 | 3525968.95 | 24740.65 |  74644.09 |  97.927
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74644.09877505 BTC (2.073%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3651.60777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70992.49100005 BTC (1.972%)
Pending Liabilities:          -12.39521804 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71004.88621809 BTC (1.972%)
Profit This Month:           -598.52212653 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14376431  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8097694  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6296.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3343.0  (53.1%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 05, 2013, 04:22:17 PM
#1295
Quote from: scrybe on May 05, 2013, 02:12:28 PM
I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception.

That's right.  The actual profit line doesn't feel any need to get closer to the expected profit line.

But, being 1000 BTC above the line when the expected profit is 10k means it's 10% higher than it 'should be', but later, when it's 1000 BTC above the expected profit of 100k it's only 1% higher than it should be.  So in that sense it tends to get closer to the expected value.  The 1000 BTC gap will remain, on average, but it will become less significant as profits increase.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
scrybe
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 05, 2013, 02:12:28 PM
#1294
Quote from: Korbman on May 03, 2013, 03:24:13 PM
Quote from: ThickAsThieves on May 03, 2013, 02:55:03 PM
Stop the madness!

Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected.

I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception. IIRC once a random-walk "wanders off" the expected line it is likely to parallel the original curve IF luck remained 100% consistent. Of course it will not, so there will be both upward and downward random influences, but there is supposedly "no particular reason" for the real data to "seek out" the original curve and stick to it.

This was from a discussion on Martingale techniques where it was pointed out that the number of losses in a row were independent from each other and therefore much longer streaks than expected could happen (to the win or to the loss side of the ledger.)

Because of this discussion I don't really expect this to "correct" back to the line either, but again IANAS (...Statistician)
Korbman
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 03, 2013, 03:24:13 PM
#1293
Quote from: ThickAsThieves on May 03, 2013, 02:55:03 PM
Stop the madness!

Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected.
ThickAsThieves
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 03, 2013, 02:55:03 PM
#1292
Stop the madness!
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