For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.
I don't know how important this is, but I doubt that's at all close to the actual distribution. I would expect tiny bets to be the vast majority of bets placed. I suspect that there are thousands of sub-1 BTC bets, and very few larger bets.
I will make a text file available detailing all the bets processed in the last couple of weeks, so that you can make a proper analysis.
But first I have to go light some fires and let a little dog out to pee.
It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.
Honestly it looks like its in the realm of possibility to me. Compare it to the 11/08 jump.
That's what I think too. I did those calculations in an attempt to demonstrate that this is indeed nothing to worry about (not the best way to do science, but my methodology was simple enough not to be influenced by my prejudice). Which is why I was a bit surprised by my result, but variance in the bet amounts may explain them away.