Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 61. (Read 192918 times)

Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.

I think their maximum bet was too high on some bets, and too low on others.  Their risk of ruin is probably still too high (depending on how deep Erik's pockets are, of course).

I'm from England.  But I'm in snowy BC, Canada.

Here's today's report, hot off the presses:

Tim hortons.. You must be from Canada land or in the USA close to Canada land....

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed, but SD seems to have lowered their maximum bets for almost all of the games. For example, the "less then 16000" game used to have a max of 219.xxx coins. The other day, it was down to 191.xxx and now it's sitting at 123.4062.

I'm wondering though, by doing this, do they also limit their earning ability for whales who come in and lose on large bets? Is this move to lower maximum bets a recognition that their "house edge" is not wide enough to handle large bets?

I could have sworn I posted yesterday.  How strange!

I generated the report, and then didn't post it?  Here's what I meant to post.  It's almost 24 hours old.  I'll post a new one when I can (I'm in a Tim Horton's coffee shop, and the wi-fi kind of sucks; blockchain download is crawling).

Hope we get an update soon.

I have a feeling SD is down even more. 

You can PM evoorhees or fireduck on these forums.  Or you can tweet at @SatoshiDice on twitter.  Or post on their announcement thread in the gambling subforum: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=77870

Who can i contact? There is no contact info in the site.

It happens occasionally.  It doesn't appear that making a fuss helps get it resolved any quicker unfortunately, though you could try that.

All bets get paid out eventually, but I've seen it take 2 or 3 days before.

Well i havent been paid for a 2 btc bet i won over an hour ago. Still says unknown but has paid a bunch of others bets i have done. What do I do? This game has taken enough from me i dont need to take shit i also won.

I think you're confusing two hashes.  There's:

* The hash of the day's secret number.  It was published months ago and won't change.
* The hash of your bet transaction, also known as the transaction ID.  It is created (by your client, not by SatoshiDice) when you make a payment.  It doesn't change.


You get to pick your transaction ID if you want to, as follows:

1. back up your wallet.dat file
2. turn off your Internet connection
3. tell your wallet to send a bet to SD
4. check the transaction ID
5. if you don't like it, quit the wallet program, restore your wallet.dat from the backup, restart the wallet program, and go back to step 3, but add 1 satoshi to the bet amount.  that will cause a completely different transaction ID to be used
6. turn your Internet connection back on
7. wait for the wallet to send the transaction (only the most recent one, whose txid you liked) out to the network

There's no point doing any of this if you don't know the daily secret, because you can't tell with txid values to "like" - you would want to like just the ones that are going to win, but you can't tell that without the secret, which you won't know until tomorrow.  You usually just create a transaction and instantly broadcast it, but using the steps above it's possible to check the txid before broadcasting it, and delete (by restoring a backup) the transaction so nobody but you ever knows you made it.

Your transaction ID is computed from all of your transaction data, including:
* Inputs (the source of the coins you're spending)
* Destination addresses and amounts
* Your signature (apparently containing some randomness chosen by you)

All of these (except the destination address obv.) are provided by you or by your bitcoin client on your behalf when you create a transaction. So when you click "send" in your wallet, your client fills in the transaction details you didn't explicitly specify and the result determines the transaction ID.

You can play with transaction IDs using, for example, the brainwallet.org Transactions page. There you can see your transaction ID even before you send the transaction and you can avoid sending it if you don't like the ID.

Transaction ID is also called transaction hash (because it is hash of all of the transaction data), and is displayed under "hash" field in brainwallet.org UI.

Ok im so conufsed with this then. How can i chose my transaction ID? All i do is open my wallet and copy and paste the address in which i want to send the corresponding bet to. Where is it that im chosing the ID? CAn you explain step by step what happens right before i place my bet so I can understand it more?

ryan, the lucky number is calculated in a deterministic (non-random) way from two things:
* satoshidice secret (chosen in advance and fixed; becomes known later)
* your transaction id (chosen by you)

There is nothing satoshidice can do to change the outcome. If anything, it is you who could be cheating by choosing good transaction ids (if you knew their secret).

I understand but it assigns a "lucky" number to my bet. All of this "ahead of time" nonsense doesnt mean anything. It isnt picking my number before i bet. The lucky number however it comes about is assigned once i place my bet not before i  place it..

No the hash is a HASH of the secret number.  A hash isn't random.  The SECRET NUMBER is random and then the hash is computed and provided ahead of time. It is proof of the secret number without revealing the secret number.  When the secret number is revealed you can hash it yourself and verify it hasn't been changed.

THE HASH OF THE SECRET NUMBER IS PROVIDED BEFORE YOU PLACE A BEST.  BEFORE ANYONE ON THE PLANET EVER PLACED ANY BETS.

What im saying is it doesnt matter what the secret number is since it has to correspond with the hash. The hash is after you place the bet. Obviously. Where does this hash come from? A random draw?

It's possible to make a few small bets if outcome for a gambler is too good. No... Seems it's impossible.

EDIT: Anyway they get their 1.9%, so there is no reason to cheat.

The hashes for the secret number of each day for the next (1000?) days has been published in advance.   Thus you can verify after the fact verify the secret number for your day is indeed the one which produces the hash for that day and thus the secret number wasn't changed to "screw you".