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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 65. (Read 192896 times)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 28, 2012, 01:12:03 PM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
September 28, 2012, 06:46:44 AM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1020
September 28, 2012, 01:30:40 AM
thanks for the statistics!

what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 27, 2012, 02:39:47 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22038 |      0 (0.00000) |  21668 |     370 |     193.09 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    193.07 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1800 |      0 (0.00000) |   1726 |      74 |      25.48 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2391 |      0 (0.00000) |   2353 |      38 |      30.22 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2541 |      1 (0.00040) |   2496 |      44 |      53.82 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.990
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5521 |      3 (0.00054) |   5506 |      12 |     381.27 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.94 |  79.556
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7918 |      8 (0.00101) |   7888 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.62 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10060 |     19 (0.00190) |   9985 |      56 |    1598.70 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.05 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15604 |    118 (0.00757) |  15476 |      10 |    2662.04 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    639.71 |  75.969
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30943 |    460 (0.01487) |  30471 |      12 |    8474.45 |    7706.04 |     1.80 |    768.40 |  90.933
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15147 |    347 (0.02292) |  14794 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22794 |    705 (0.03093) |  22085 |       4 |    5487.25 |    4647.79 |     9.24 |    839.45 |  84.702
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15377 |    709 (0.04613) |  14660 |       8 |    6796.45 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.43 | 118.693
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15926 |    988 (0.06205) |  14934 |       4 |    4649.01 |    4128.14 |    31.20 |    520.86 |  88.796
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21219 |   1981 (0.09344) |  19220 |      18 |   10121.29 |   10076.76 |     7.01 |     44.52 |  99.560
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85331 |  10496 (0.12304) |  74812 |      23 |   10374.07 |    8954.39 |     0.00 |   1419.68 |  86.315
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21286 |   3985 (0.18733) |  17288 |      13 |    8364.71 |    8623.19 |    14.50 |   -258.48 | 103.090
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84576 |  20576 (0.24335) |  63977 |      23 |   50418.10 |   49297.15 |   347.79 |   1120.94 |  97.777
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61209 |  22476 (0.36748) |  38687 |      46 |   30105.05 |   29324.00 |   212.64 |    781.04 |  97.406
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 |     437 |  321251.95 |  319798.06 |  2173.41 |   1453.88 |  99.547
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196046 |  97735 (0.49900) |  98128 |     183 |  191158.30 |  188928.43 |  1295.22 |   2229.87 |  98.833
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152095 | 111893 (0.73605) |  40125 |      77 |  154214.79 |  152004.09 |   467.98 |   2210.70 |  98.566
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12638 |  10047 (0.79542) |   2584 |       7 |   21750.38 |   21465.15 |   400.00 |    285.23 |  98.689
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12026 |  10285 (0.85673) |   1720 |      21 |   13095.86 |   12935.38 |   400.00 |    160.48 |  98.775
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5705 |   5218 (0.91576) |    480 |       7 |   10572.43 |   10492.00 |     0.00 |     80.42 |  99.239
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7636 |   7346 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1332042 | 544428           | 786119 |    1495 |  332102.85 |  322931.98 |   148.11 |   9170.87 |  97.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45809 |  23130           |  22470 |     209 |  542824.71 |  539549.84 |  5673.35 |   3274.86 |  99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1377851 | 567558           | 808589 |    1704 |  874927.56 |  862481.83 |  5821.47 |  12445.73 |  98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4580858  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1900.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8  (54.9%)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1016
760930
September 27, 2012, 11:21:34 AM
Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p

Actually the problems start if you don't bust... Smiley
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
September 27, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 27, 2012, 02:57:59 AM
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?

The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet.  You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time.  Is that what you're looking for?
hero member
Activity: 488
Merit: 500
September 27, 2012, 02:24:51 AM
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 27, 2012, 12:06:57 AM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21997 |      0 (0.00000) |  21630 |     367 |     192.84 |       0.01 |    32.56 |    192.83 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1797 |      0 (0.00000) |   1723 |      74 |      25.47 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2386 |      0 (0.00000) |   2349 |      37 |      30.21 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2537 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      44 |      53.81 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.991
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5518 |      3 (0.00054) |   5503 |      12 |     381.23 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.90 |  79.564
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7916 |      8 (0.00101) |   7886 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.61 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10056 |     19 (0.00190) |   9981 |      56 |    1598.67 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.03 |  79.731
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15481 |    118 (0.00763) |  15354 |       9 |    2661.23 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    638.90 |  75.992
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30566 |    453 (0.01483) |  30101 |      12 |    8470.30 |    7701.57 |     1.80 |    768.73 |  90.924
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15145 |    347 (0.02292) |  14792 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22779 |    704 (0.03091) |  22071 |       4 |    5486.63 |    4647.48 |     9.24 |    839.15 |  84.706
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15352 |    709 (0.04621) |  14635 |       8 |    6796.37 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.51 | 118.694
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15918 |    987 (0.06202) |  14927 |       4 |    4648.00 |    4126.54 |    31.20 |    521.46 |  88.781
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21190 |   1979 (0.09347) |  19193 |      18 |   10118.08 |   10075.58 |     7.01 |     42.50 |  99.580
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84817 |  10436 (0.12307) |  74358 |      23 |   10364.85 |    8947.55 |     0.00 |   1417.29 |  86.326
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21163 |   3969 (0.18766) |  17181 |      13 |    8357.15 |    8611.34 |    14.50 |   -254.19 | 103.042
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84241 |  20496 (0.24337) |  63722 |      23 |   50389.15 |   49274.62 |   347.79 |   1114.53 |  97.788
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61101 |  22435 (0.36746) |  38620 |      46 |   30097.48 |   29319.69 |   212.64 |    777.79 |  97.416
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 |     437 |  320595.71 |  319262.12 |  2173.41 |   1333.59 |  99.584
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195906 |  97662 (0.49898) |  98061 |     183 |  191067.27 |  188814.77 |  1295.22 |   2252.50 |  98.821
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   151590 | 111497 (0.73589) |  40016 |      77 |  154152.63 |  151951.18 |   467.98 |   2201.44 |  98.572
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12595 |  10012 (0.79536) |   2576 |       7 |   21731.73 |   21443.36 |   400.00 |    288.36 |  98.673
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11751 |  10046 (0.85644) |   1684 |      21 |   12999.13 |   12844.27 |   400.00 |    154.86 |  98.809
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5692 |   5205 (0.91557) |    480 |       7 |   10299.80 |   10200.01 |     0.00 |     99.79 |  99.031
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7635 |   7345 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1328049 | 542836           | 783723 |    1490 |  331606.23 |  322485.68 |   147.61 |   9120.54 |  97.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45757 |  23102           |  22446 |     209 |  542060.38 |  538835.62 |  5673.35 |   3224.76 |  99.405
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1373806 | 565938           | 806169 |    1699 |  873666.61 |  861321.31 |  5820.96 |  12345.30 |  98.587
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4563338  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1892.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8  (55.0%)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 25, 2012, 06:50:24 PM
Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
September 25, 2012, 04:53:53 PM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley


Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0.  If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script....   As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead....  I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially.  I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.

Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal.   That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns.   =p


Dude, don't confuse a lucky streak with a what would on average happen streak.  I played the under 8000 strat.  Won .37BTC first time, lost it all the second time (.65BTC).  Maybe my bankroll wasn't big enough.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 25, 2012, 03:18:38 PM
Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Edit: what I didn't say, but meant to imply, was: "scripting it is easy, but pointless, since every strategy is a losing strategy.  The only point of playing SD is if you have fun playing it, and having a script play it for you pretty much removes any fun, I'd have thought".
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
September 25, 2012, 01:30:03 PM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley


Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0.  If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script....   As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead....  I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially.  I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.

Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal.   That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns.   =p
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 25, 2012, 12:29:39 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-25 10:27am (up to block 200493)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21614 |      0 (0.00000) |  21251 |     363 |     191.04 |       0.01 |    32.16 |    191.02 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1788 |      0 (0.00000) |   1714 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2378 |      0 (0.00000) |   2341 |      37 |      29.91 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.88 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2514 |      1 (0.00040) |   2469 |      44 |      52.22 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.15 |  15.445
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2564 |      1 (0.00040) |   2527 |      36 |      95.14 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.88 |   4.477
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5504 |      3 (0.00055) |   5489 |      12 |     381.22 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.89 |  79.567
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7891 |      8 (0.00102) |   7861 |      22 |     646.98 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.59 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10047 |     19 (0.00190) |   9972 |      56 |    1598.66 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.01 |  79.732
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9911 |     43 (0.00434) |   9854 |      14 |    1288.07 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.108
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15215 |    116 (0.00763) |  15090 |       9 |    2650.96 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.12 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30194 |    450 (0.01491) |  29732 |      12 |    8325.94 |    7700.68 |     1.80 |    625.25 |  92.490
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15056 |    344 (0.02286) |  14706 |       6 |    4701.45 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.38 | 103.348
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22717 |    700 (0.03082) |  22013 |       4 |    5486.15 |    4647.35 |     9.24 |    838.79 |  84.711
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15293 |    704 (0.04606) |  14581 |       8 |    6795.96 |    8066.48 |    24.99 |  -1270.52 | 118.695
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15871 |    984 (0.06202) |  14883 |       4 |    4645.85 |    4126.35 |    31.20 |    519.49 |  88.818
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21103 |   1973 (0.09357) |  19112 |      18 |   10109.67 |   10074.06 |     7.01 |     35.61 |  99.648
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84641 |  10416 (0.12309) |  74202 |      23 |   10352.67 |    8943.34 |     0.00 |   1409.32 |  86.387
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21075 |   3954 (0.18773) |  17108 |      13 |    8271.75 |    8517.32 |    14.50 |   -245.56 | 102.969
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    83367 |  20298 (0.24354) |  63046 |      23 |   49803.79 |   48623.81 |   347.79 |   1179.98 |  97.631
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60823 |  22328 (0.36737) |  38450 |      45 |   29914.13 |   29164.21 |   212.64 |    749.92 |  97.493
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   530782 | 258784 (0.48795) | 271561 |     437 |  317903.19 |  316505.08 |  2173.41 |   1398.11 |  99.560
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195105 |  97239 (0.49886) |  97683 |     183 |  190690.25 |  188454.71 |  1295.22 |   2235.53 |  98.828
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150979 | 111044 (0.73587) |  39858 |      77 |  153546.62 |  151317.42 |   467.98 |   2229.19 |  98.548
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12400 |   9862 (0.79577) |   2531 |       7 |   21512.33 |   21274.84 |   400.00 |    237.49 |  98.896
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11567 |   9894 (0.85692) |   1652 |      21 |   12287.74 |   12040.25 |   400.00 |    247.48 |  97.986
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5606 |   5126 (0.91552) |    473 |       7 |    9865.97 |    9791.56 |     0.00 |     74.40 |  99.246
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7607 |   7318 (0.97991) |    150 |     139 |   16309.10 |   16031.33 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1318135 | 538658           | 777992 |    1485 |  329637.49 |  320693.57 |   147.21 |   8943.91 |  97.287
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45477 |  22951           |  22317 |     209 |  537844.67 |  534471.07 |  5673.35 |   3373.60 |  99.373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1363612 | 561609           | 800309 |    1694 |  867482.17 |  855164.65 |  5820.56 |  12317.52 |  98.580
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12317.52011634 BTC (1.420%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         686.95472500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11630.56539134 BTC (1.341%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4516574  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2527097  (56.0%)
Blockchain MB:  1873.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1032.9  (55.1%)

member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
September 24, 2012, 02:04:56 PM
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.  Smiley

http://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.png

The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? Tongue

The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.

haha ikr? im currently down 30BTC fml Cry
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 24, 2012, 01:49:50 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-24 11:48am (up to block 200351)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21575 |      0 (0.00000) |  21213 |     362 |     190.53 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    190.51 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1787 |      0 (0.00000) |   1713 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2375 |      0 (0.00000) |   2338 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2512 |      1 (0.00041) |   2467 |      44 |      52.20 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.13 |  15.451
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2523 |      36 |      94.69 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.43 |   4.497
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7888 |      8 (0.00102) |   7858 |      22 |     646.97 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.58 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10039 |     19 (0.00190) |   9964 |      56 |    1598.64 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.99 |  79.733
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9910 |     43 (0.00435) |   9853 |      14 |    1288.06 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.109
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15210 |    116 (0.00763) |  15085 |       9 |    2650.95 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.11 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30178 |    449 (0.01488) |  29717 |      12 |    8325.83 |    7700.04 |     1.80 |    625.79 |  92.484
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15052 |    344 (0.02286) |  14702 |       6 |    4701.37 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.46 | 103.349
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22659 |    699 (0.03085) |  21956 |       4 |    5483.76 |    4646.71 |     9.24 |    837.04 |  84.736
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15273 |    702 (0.04599) |  14563 |       8 |    6795.37 |    8065.14 |    24.99 |  -1269.77 | 118.686
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15859 |    981 (0.06187) |  14874 |       4 |    4644.66 |    4121.07 |    31.20 |    523.59 |  88.727
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21060 |   1972 (0.09372) |  19070 |      18 |   10029.58 |    9967.08 |     7.01 |     62.50 |  99.377
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84602 |  10411 (0.12309) |  74168 |      23 |   10348.87 |    8942.19 |     0.00 |   1406.67 |  86.407
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21035 |   3947 (0.18776) |  17075 |      13 |    8218.93 |    8418.93 |    14.50 |   -200.00 | 102.433
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    83064 |  20233 (0.24365) |  62808 |      23 |   49522.04 |   48450.32 |   347.79 |   1071.71 |  97.836
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60746 |  22292 (0.36724) |  38409 |      45 |   29892.85 |   29134.37 |   212.64 |    758.48 |  97.463
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   528699 | 257745 (0.48791) | 270517 |     437 |  317403.06 |  316040.32 |  2173.41 |   1362.74 |  99.571
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   194816 |  97086 (0.49882) |  97547 |     183 |  190121.85 |  187888.95 |  1295.22 |   2232.89 |  98.826
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150818 | 110927 (0.73588) |  39814 |      77 |  153498.86 |  151267.40 |   467.98 |   2231.45 |  98.546
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12247 |   9739 (0.79567) |   2501 |       7 |   20989.49 |   20951.13 |   400.00 |     38.35 |  99.817
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11526 |   9859 (0.85693) |   1646 |      21 |   12150.76 |   12021.12 |   400.00 |    129.63 |  98.933
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5579 |   5102 (0.91565) |    470 |       7 |    9847.91 |    9776.02 |     0.00 |     71.89 |  99.270
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7603 |   7314 (0.97990) |    150 |     139 |   16308.70 |   16030.93 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1314776 | 537070           | 776222 |    1484 |  329034.51 |  320074.85 |   147.11 |   8959.66 |  97.277
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45399 |  22923           |  22267 |     209 |  536207.58 |  533232.72 |  5673.35 |   2974.86 |  99.445
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1360175 | 559993           | 798489 |    1693 |  865242.10 |  853307.57 |  5820.46 |  11934.52 |  98.621
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11934.52699252 BTC (1.379%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         685.22687500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11249.30011752 BTC (1.300%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4494521  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2520228  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1864.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1030.1  (55.3%)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 23, 2012, 11:59:42 PM
I looked into the recent profits for SD.  It doesn't look like a martingale series - it's mostly someone (or maybe 2 people) making a bunch of large <48000 bets and having a run of bad luck:

Code:

Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 41c74bcd163391409301acf1e0ccf701f24877be2a12d30d2eb69daa985b5396 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   250.00000000  WIN     84.39083333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 499ebca078d841cf4f1b751d298c0a4b9a93697481cb12a71d0e32b1fccae59d 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   113.00000000  WIN     38.14438266
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 db1c668dd580318070a9490fabf4485b34af55ce71f0316e04fad2d9046fbd87 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET    80.00000000  WIN     27.00472666
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 9343ed1359217dffc93a06c1f8ed6b973edb70622f8f5500b9af381e29639f66 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   100.00000000  WIN     33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 dafd962e26e16650da9aa60f9edb46d5529e06912e39b9d19a95189a848b132d 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   142.00000000  WIN     47.93377733
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 58fad4d8d35d348bbbc0bcd172cf51892936b9977a66f81aa43c60960fb66b86 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   190.00000000  WIN     64.13691333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 3e92f6bb0b437e880baf6c9c797506cf6a919619954c4841256b115b6227ac74 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 8e7271e75e0a815f28c410a8792490fc09f63c29d481593fcc7e2b9a99d39c1b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   100.00000000  WIN     33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 d00f27c4aa977163487eba2a4fd6f943bed22b9da1055f97e12c78272209a20b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 31374a58cc0514fb8dc4cbaa28ccfd3b23d3594e2bd9963c4a1732f0aed5e8ee 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET   241.00000000 LOSE  -239.79550000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 c08b14f2a47dfe1f625667c2618cb4cba6205960a0146cc1cadb3190bd847a35 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 131ac681d069314099722a3277beef79196d6d685e5c2628dc4b14d9634dd6f8 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   151.00000000 LOSE  -150.24550000
Mon Sep 24 02:52:05 2012 <48000 b200249 73450a6a86c84bce8a352c6d01b606abd832e44800e1ecd283cf48230c4fafa1 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET    86.53000000  WIN     29.20902829
Mon Sep 24 03:11:30 2012 <48000 b200250 b67db3417755f8d574b81065e6c77ea2283921b8250b3964e2b2e2bffca087f3 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET   115.70000000 LOSE  -115.12200000
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 23, 2012, 11:49:57 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-23 09:47pm (up to block 200255)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21558 |      0 (0.00000) |  21197 |     361 |     190.19 |       0.01 |    32.06 |    190.17 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1786 |      0 (0.00000) |   1712 |      74 |      25.28 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.28 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2374 |      0 (0.00000) |   2337 |      37 |      29.90 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     29.87 |   0.094
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2511 |      1 (0.00041) |   2466 |      44 |      52.19 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     44.12 |  15.453
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2523 |      36 |      94.69 |       4.25 |     7.40 |     90.43 |   4.497
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5503 |      3 (0.00055) |   5488 |      12 |     380.86 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.53 |  79.642
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7888 |      8 (0.00102) |   7858 |      22 |     646.97 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.58 |  19.227
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10032 |     19 (0.00190) |   9957 |      56 |    1598.53 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    323.88 |  79.739
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9910 |     43 (0.00435) |   9853 |      14 |    1288.06 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.27 | 101.109
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15209 |    116 (0.00763) |  15084 |       9 |    2650.95 |    2009.84 |     9.35 |    641.11 |  75.816
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30041 |    449 (0.01495) |  29580 |      12 |    8321.87 |    7700.04 |     1.80 |    621.83 |  92.528
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15049 |    344 (0.02287) |  14699 |       6 |    4701.20 |    4858.84 |    15.00 |   -157.64 | 103.353
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22624 |    698 (0.03086) |  21922 |       4 |    5482.03 |    4645.75 |     9.24 |    836.28 |  84.745
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15247 |    702 (0.04607) |  14537 |       8 |    6794.75 |    8065.14 |    24.99 |  -1270.38 | 118.697
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15846 |    980 (0.06186) |  14862 |       4 |    4644.35 |    4120.91 |    31.20 |    523.43 |  88.730
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21018 |   1970 (0.09381) |  19030 |      18 |   10026.55 |    9963.02 |     7.01 |     63.53 |  99.366
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84424 |  10392 (0.12313) |  74009 |      23 |   10338.29 |    8936.32 |     0.00 |   1401.96 |  86.439
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21028 |   3944 (0.18768) |  17071 |      13 |    8216.92 |    8413.58 |    14.50 |   -196.65 | 102.393
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    82619 |  20130 (0.24372) |  62466 |      23 |   49438.90 |   48380.01 |   347.79 |   1058.88 |  97.858
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    60385 |  22164 (0.36732) |  38176 |      45 |   29746.72 |   28983.98 |   212.64 |    762.74 |  97.436
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   526137 | 256545 (0.48800) | 269163 |     429 |  316854.21 |  315488.41 |  2173.41 |   1365.79 |  99.569
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   194045 |  96699 (0.49880) |  97164 |     182 |  188426.43 |  186761.00 |  1295.22 |   1665.42 |  99.116
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   150649 | 110802 (0.73587) |  39770 |      77 |  152861.37 |  150462.54 |   467.98 |   2398.83 |  98.431
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12153 |   9663 (0.79557) |   2483 |       7 |   20885.33 |   20865.38 |   400.00 |     19.94 |  99.904
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11444 |   9789 (0.85696) |   1634 |      21 |   11211.26 |   10950.07 |   400.00 |    261.19 |  97.670
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5573 |   5097 (0.91574) |    469 |       7 |    9834.99 |    9762.19 |     0.00 |     72.79 |  99.260
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7599 |   7310 (0.97989) |    150 |     139 |   16307.59 |   16029.82 |   239.21 |    277.77 |  98.297
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1309883 | 534990           | 773419 |    1474 |  328052.51 |  319164.21 |   147.10 |   8888.29 |  97.291
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45329 |  22879           |  22241 |     209 |  532997.99 |  530249.80 |  5673.35 |   2748.18 |  99.484
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                                |  1355212 | 557869           | 795660 |    1683 |  861050.50 |  849414.01 |  5820.46 |  11636.48 |  98.649
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      11636.48912696 BTC (1.351%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         682.72930000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       10953.75982696 BTC (1.272%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4476982  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2510589  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1856.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1026.1  (55.3%)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
September 23, 2012, 11:26:11 PM
Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?

I've not.  I looked at the progressive games when they were first introduced, and saw that the way they worked meant that sometimes they were incredibly worth playing.  After making a nice profit playing them at the right time the rules were changed.  Now they're almost never worth playing.  The expected return is horrible.  As a result almost nobody plays them, so I decided just to ignore them.

Look at the current progressive pot.  I have a 0.02596% chance of turning 0.25 BTC into 626.0639 BTC.  That's a 1 in 3852 chance of multiplying my stake by 2504.  Or in other words a 65% expected return.

>>> 100 * 626.0639 / 0.25 / (100 / 0.02596)
65.010475376

I expect they're being honest though.  At those odds why would they need to cheat?

Edit: this game did puzzle me for a while though.  They claim to only take a 2% cut from the progressive games - each time the pot is won, they take their small cut, give 65% to the player, and leave the rest in the pot for the next winner.  So if the players are getting a 65% return, and the house is only taking 2%, where does the rest go?

To simplify the game, consider these rules:

* you're the only person playing
* each turn costs 1 BTC
* when you win, you win the whole pot
* when you lose, your whole bet gets added to the pot
* each time you bet, your odds of winning are 1 in (pot * 10)

So

* each bet has an expected return of 10%, or 0.1 BTC (you're betting 1 BTC to win 'pot' BTC, with a 1-in-(pot*10) chance of winning)
* but eventually you win, and get all your money back - doesn't this imply your expected return of 100% in the long term?

These two contradict each other - the return can't be 10% each bet, and 100% in the long term.

I think the way I eventually resolved the contradiction is that "eventually you win" isn't true.  You might give up before you win.  In that case the house gets to keep the whole pot.  And the same applies in the SD progressive game, I think.  They only take 2% if the pot is won, but it's quite likely that the pot won't ever be won, in which case they keep everything.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1134
September 23, 2012, 07:31:13 AM
Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
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