Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
What happens if that number is negative?
Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 65. (Read 192889 times)
What happens if that number is negative?
Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
thanks for the statistics!
what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?
what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 22038 | 0 (0.00000) | 21668 | 370 | 193.09 | 0.01 | 32.86 | 193.07 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1800 | 0 (0.00000) | 1726 | 74 | 25.48 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2391 | 0 (0.00000) | 2353 | 38 | 30.22 | 0.02 | 4.42 | 30.19 | 0.093
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2541 | 1 (0.00040) | 2496 | 44 | 53.82 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.990
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5521 | 3 (0.00054) | 5506 | 12 | 381.27 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.94 | 79.556
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7918 | 8 (0.00101) | 7888 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.62 | 19.226
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10060 | 19 (0.00190) | 9985 | 56 | 1598.70 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.05 | 79.730
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15604 | 118 (0.00757) | 15476 | 10 | 2662.04 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 639.71 | 75.969
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30943 | 460 (0.01487) | 30471 | 12 | 8474.45 | 7706.04 | 1.80 | 768.40 | 90.933
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15147 | 347 (0.02292) | 14794 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22794 | 705 (0.03093) | 22085 | 4 | 5487.25 | 4647.79 | 9.24 | 839.45 | 84.702
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15377 | 709 (0.04613) | 14660 | 8 | 6796.45 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.43 | 118.693
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15926 | 988 (0.06205) | 14934 | 4 | 4649.01 | 4128.14 | 31.20 | 520.86 | 88.796
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21219 | 1981 (0.09344) | 19220 | 18 | 10121.29 | 10076.76 | 7.01 | 44.52 | 99.560
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 85331 | 10496 (0.12304) | 74812 | 23 | 10374.07 | 8954.39 | 0.00 | 1419.68 | 86.315
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21286 | 3985 (0.18733) | 17288 | 13 | 8364.71 | 8623.19 | 14.50 | -258.48 | 103.090
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84576 | 20576 (0.24335) | 63977 | 23 | 50418.10 | 49297.15 | 347.79 | 1120.94 | 97.777
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61209 | 22476 (0.36748) | 38687 | 46 | 30105.05 | 29324.00 | 212.64 | 781.04 | 97.406
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 | 437 | 321251.95 | 319798.06 | 2173.41 | 1453.88 | 99.547
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 196046 | 97735 (0.49900) | 98128 | 183 | 191158.30 | 188928.43 | 1295.22 | 2229.87 | 98.833
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 152095 | 111893 (0.73605) | 40125 | 77 | 154214.79 | 152004.09 | 467.98 | 2210.70 | 98.566
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12638 | 10047 (0.79542) | 2584 | 7 | 21750.38 | 21465.15 | 400.00 | 285.23 | 98.689
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 12026 | 10285 (0.85673) | 1720 | 21 | 13095.86 | 12935.38 | 400.00 | 160.48 | 98.775
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5705 | 5218 (0.91576) | 480 | 7 | 10572.43 | 10492.00 | 0.00 | 80.42 | 99.239
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7636 | 7346 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1332042 | 544428 | 786119 | 1495 | 332102.85 | 322931.98 | 148.11 | 9170.87 | 97.239
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45809 | 23130 | 22470 | 209 | 542824.71 | 539549.84 | 5673.35 | 3274.86 | 99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1377851 | 567558 | 808589 | 1704 | 874927.56 | 862481.83 | 5821.47 | 12445.73 | 98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4580858 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448 (55.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1900.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8 (54.9%)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 22038 | 0 (0.00000) | 21668 | 370 | 193.09 | 0.01 | 32.86 | 193.07 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1800 | 0 (0.00000) | 1726 | 74 | 25.48 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2391 | 0 (0.00000) | 2353 | 38 | 30.22 | 0.02 | 4.42 | 30.19 | 0.093
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2541 | 1 (0.00040) | 2496 | 44 | 53.82 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.990
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5521 | 3 (0.00054) | 5506 | 12 | 381.27 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.94 | 79.556
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7918 | 8 (0.00101) | 7888 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.62 | 19.226
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10060 | 19 (0.00190) | 9985 | 56 | 1598.70 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.05 | 79.730
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15604 | 118 (0.00757) | 15476 | 10 | 2662.04 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 639.71 | 75.969
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30943 | 460 (0.01487) | 30471 | 12 | 8474.45 | 7706.04 | 1.80 | 768.40 | 90.933
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15147 | 347 (0.02292) | 14794 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22794 | 705 (0.03093) | 22085 | 4 | 5487.25 | 4647.79 | 9.24 | 839.45 | 84.702
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15377 | 709 (0.04613) | 14660 | 8 | 6796.45 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.43 | 118.693
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15926 | 988 (0.06205) | 14934 | 4 | 4649.01 | 4128.14 | 31.20 | 520.86 | 88.796
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21219 | 1981 (0.09344) | 19220 | 18 | 10121.29 | 10076.76 | 7.01 | 44.52 | 99.560
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 85331 | 10496 (0.12304) | 74812 | 23 | 10374.07 | 8954.39 | 0.00 | 1419.68 | 86.315
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21286 | 3985 (0.18733) | 17288 | 13 | 8364.71 | 8623.19 | 14.50 | -258.48 | 103.090
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84576 | 20576 (0.24335) | 63977 | 23 | 50418.10 | 49297.15 | 347.79 | 1120.94 | 97.777
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61209 | 22476 (0.36748) | 38687 | 46 | 30105.05 | 29324.00 | 212.64 | 781.04 | 97.406
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 | 437 | 321251.95 | 319798.06 | 2173.41 | 1453.88 | 99.547
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 196046 | 97735 (0.49900) | 98128 | 183 | 191158.30 | 188928.43 | 1295.22 | 2229.87 | 98.833
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 152095 | 111893 (0.73605) | 40125 | 77 | 154214.79 | 152004.09 | 467.98 | 2210.70 | 98.566
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12638 | 10047 (0.79542) | 2584 | 7 | 21750.38 | 21465.15 | 400.00 | 285.23 | 98.689
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 12026 | 10285 (0.85673) | 1720 | 21 | 13095.86 | 12935.38 | 400.00 | 160.48 | 98.775
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5705 | 5218 (0.91576) | 480 | 7 | 10572.43 | 10492.00 | 0.00 | 80.42 | 99.239
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7636 | 7346 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1332042 | 544428 | 786119 | 1495 | 332102.85 | 322931.98 | 148.11 | 9170.87 | 97.239
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45809 | 23130 | 22470 | 209 | 542824.71 | 539549.84 | 5673.35 | 3274.86 | 99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1377851 | 567558 | 808589 | 1704 | 874927.56 | 862481.83 | 5821.47 | 12445.73 | 98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4580858 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448 (55.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1900.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8 (54.9%)
Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:
https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore. =p
Actually the problems start if you don't bust...
Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:
https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore. =p
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet. You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time. Is that what you're looking for?
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21997 | 0 (0.00000) | 21630 | 367 | 192.84 | 0.01 | 32.56 | 192.83 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1797 | 0 (0.00000) | 1723 | 74 | 25.47 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2386 | 0 (0.00000) | 2349 | 37 | 30.21 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 30.19 | 0.093
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2537 | 1 (0.00040) | 2492 | 44 | 53.81 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.991
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5518 | 3 (0.00054) | 5503 | 12 | 381.23 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.90 | 79.564
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7916 | 8 (0.00101) | 7886 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.61 | 19.226
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10056 | 19 (0.00190) | 9981 | 56 | 1598.67 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.03 | 79.731
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15481 | 118 (0.00763) | 15354 | 9 | 2661.23 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 638.90 | 75.992
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30566 | 453 (0.01483) | 30101 | 12 | 8470.30 | 7701.57 | 1.80 | 768.73 | 90.924
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15145 | 347 (0.02292) | 14792 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22779 | 704 (0.03091) | 22071 | 4 | 5486.63 | 4647.48 | 9.24 | 839.15 | 84.706
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15352 | 709 (0.04621) | 14635 | 8 | 6796.37 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.51 | 118.694
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15918 | 987 (0.06202) | 14927 | 4 | 4648.00 | 4126.54 | 31.20 | 521.46 | 88.781
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21190 | 1979 (0.09347) | 19193 | 18 | 10118.08 | 10075.58 | 7.01 | 42.50 | 99.580
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84817 | 10436 (0.12307) | 74358 | 23 | 10364.85 | 8947.55 | 0.00 | 1417.29 | 86.326
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21163 | 3969 (0.18766) | 17181 | 13 | 8357.15 | 8611.34 | 14.50 | -254.19 | 103.042
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84241 | 20496 (0.24337) | 63722 | 23 | 50389.15 | 49274.62 | 347.79 | 1114.53 | 97.788
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61101 | 22435 (0.36746) | 38620 | 46 | 30097.48 | 29319.69 | 212.64 | 777.79 | 97.416
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 | 437 | 320595.71 | 319262.12 | 2173.41 | 1333.59 | 99.584
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195906 | 97662 (0.49898) | 98061 | 183 | 191067.27 | 188814.77 | 1295.22 | 2252.50 | 98.821
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 151590 | 111497 (0.73589) | 40016 | 77 | 154152.63 | 151951.18 | 467.98 | 2201.44 | 98.572
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12595 | 10012 (0.79536) | 2576 | 7 | 21731.73 | 21443.36 | 400.00 | 288.36 | 98.673
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11751 | 10046 (0.85644) | 1684 | 21 | 12999.13 | 12844.27 | 400.00 | 154.86 | 98.809
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5692 | 5205 (0.91557) | 480 | 7 | 10299.80 | 10200.01 | 0.00 | 99.79 | 99.031
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7635 | 7345 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1328049 | 542836 | 783723 | 1490 | 331606.23 | 322485.68 | 147.61 | 9120.54 | 97.250
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45757 | 23102 | 22446 | 209 | 542060.38 | 538835.62 | 5673.35 | 3224.76 | 99.405
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1373806 | 565938 | 806169 | 1699 | 873666.61 | 861321.31 | 5820.96 | 12345.30 | 98.587
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4563338 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392 (55.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1892.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8 (55.0%)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21997 | 0 (0.00000) | 21630 | 367 | 192.84 | 0.01 | 32.56 | 192.83 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1797 | 0 (0.00000) | 1723 | 74 | 25.47 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2386 | 0 (0.00000) | 2349 | 37 | 30.21 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 30.19 | 0.093
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2537 | 1 (0.00040) | 2492 | 44 | 53.81 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.991
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5518 | 3 (0.00054) | 5503 | 12 | 381.23 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.90 | 79.564
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7916 | 8 (0.00101) | 7886 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.61 | 19.226
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10056 | 19 (0.00190) | 9981 | 56 | 1598.67 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.03 | 79.731
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15481 | 118 (0.00763) | 15354 | 9 | 2661.23 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 638.90 | 75.992
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30566 | 453 (0.01483) | 30101 | 12 | 8470.30 | 7701.57 | 1.80 | 768.73 | 90.924
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15145 | 347 (0.02292) | 14792 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22779 | 704 (0.03091) | 22071 | 4 | 5486.63 | 4647.48 | 9.24 | 839.15 | 84.706
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15352 | 709 (0.04621) | 14635 | 8 | 6796.37 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.51 | 118.694
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15918 | 987 (0.06202) | 14927 | 4 | 4648.00 | 4126.54 | 31.20 | 521.46 | 88.781
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21190 | 1979 (0.09347) | 19193 | 18 | 10118.08 | 10075.58 | 7.01 | 42.50 | 99.580
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84817 | 10436 (0.12307) | 74358 | 23 | 10364.85 | 8947.55 | 0.00 | 1417.29 | 86.326
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21163 | 3969 (0.18766) | 17181 | 13 | 8357.15 | 8611.34 | 14.50 | -254.19 | 103.042
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84241 | 20496 (0.24337) | 63722 | 23 | 50389.15 | 49274.62 | 347.79 | 1114.53 | 97.788
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61101 | 22435 (0.36746) | 38620 | 46 | 30097.48 | 29319.69 | 212.64 | 777.79 | 97.416
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 | 437 | 320595.71 | 319262.12 | 2173.41 | 1333.59 | 99.584
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195906 | 97662 (0.49898) | 98061 | 183 | 191067.27 | 188814.77 | 1295.22 | 2252.50 | 98.821
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 151590 | 111497 (0.73589) | 40016 | 77 | 154152.63 | 151951.18 | 467.98 | 2201.44 | 98.572
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12595 | 10012 (0.79536) | 2576 | 7 | 21731.73 | 21443.36 | 400.00 | 288.36 | 98.673
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11751 | 10046 (0.85644) | 1684 | 21 | 12999.13 | 12844.27 | 400.00 | 154.86 | 98.809
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5692 | 5205 (0.91557) | 480 | 7 | 10299.80 | 10200.01 | 0.00 | 99.79 | 99.031
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7635 | 7345 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1328049 | 542836 | 783723 | 1490 | 331606.23 | 322485.68 | 147.61 | 9120.54 | 97.250
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45757 | 23102 | 22446 | 209 | 542060.38 | 538835.62 | 5673.35 | 3224.76 | 99.405
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1373806 | 565938 | 806169 | 1699 | 873666.61 | 861321.31 | 5820.96 | 12345.30 | 98.587
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4563338 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392 (55.8%)
Blockchain MB: 1892.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8 (55.0%)
Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:
https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.
The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.
Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...
If I just knew how to make a script for it....
Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0. If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script.... As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead.... I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially. I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.
Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal. That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns. =p
Dude, don't confuse a lucky streak with a what would on average happen streak. I played the under 8000 strat. Won .37BTC first time, lost it all the second time (.65BTC). Maybe my bankroll wasn't big enough.
Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...
If I just knew how to make a script for it....
If I just knew how to make a script for it....
Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Edit: what I didn't say, but meant to imply, was: "scripting it is easy, but pointless, since every strategy is a losing strategy. The only point of playing SD is if you have fun playing it, and having a script play it for you pretty much removes any fun, I'd have thought".
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.
The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.
Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...
If I just knew how to make a script for it....
Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0. If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script.... As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead.... I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially. I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.
Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal. That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns. =p
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-25 10:27am (up to block 200493)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21614 | 0 (0.00000) | 21251 | 363 | 191.04 | 0.01 | 32.16 | 191.02 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1788 | 0 (0.00000) | 1714 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2378 | 0 (0.00000) | 2341 | 37 | 29.91 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.88 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2514 | 1 (0.00040) | 2469 | 44 | 52.22 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.15 | 15.445
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2564 | 1 (0.00040) | 2527 | 36 | 95.14 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.88 | 4.477
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5504 | 3 (0.00055) | 5489 | 12 | 381.22 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.89 | 79.567
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7891 | 8 (0.00102) | 7861 | 22 | 646.98 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.59 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10047 | 19 (0.00190) | 9972 | 56 | 1598.66 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.01 | 79.732
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9911 | 43 (0.00434) | 9854 | 14 | 1288.07 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.108
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15215 | 116 (0.00763) | 15090 | 9 | 2650.96 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.12 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30194 | 450 (0.01491) | 29732 | 12 | 8325.94 | 7700.68 | 1.80 | 625.25 | 92.490
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15056 | 344 (0.02286) | 14706 | 6 | 4701.45 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.38 | 103.348
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22717 | 700 (0.03082) | 22013 | 4 | 5486.15 | 4647.35 | 9.24 | 838.79 | 84.711
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15293 | 704 (0.04606) | 14581 | 8 | 6795.96 | 8066.48 | 24.99 | -1270.52 | 118.695
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15871 | 984 (0.06202) | 14883 | 4 | 4645.85 | 4126.35 | 31.20 | 519.49 | 88.818
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21103 | 1973 (0.09357) | 19112 | 18 | 10109.67 | 10074.06 | 7.01 | 35.61 | 99.648
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84641 | 10416 (0.12309) | 74202 | 23 | 10352.67 | 8943.34 | 0.00 | 1409.32 | 86.387
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21075 | 3954 (0.18773) | 17108 | 13 | 8271.75 | 8517.32 | 14.50 | -245.56 | 102.969
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83367 | 20298 (0.24354) | 63046 | 23 | 49803.79 | 48623.81 | 347.79 | 1179.98 | 97.631
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60823 | 22328 (0.36737) | 38450 | 45 | 29914.13 | 29164.21 | 212.64 | 749.92 | 97.493
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 530782 | 258784 (0.48795) | 271561 | 437 | 317903.19 | 316505.08 | 2173.41 | 1398.11 | 99.560
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195105 | 97239 (0.49886) | 97683 | 183 | 190690.25 | 188454.71 | 1295.22 | 2235.53 | 98.828
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150979 | 111044 (0.73587) | 39858 | 77 | 153546.62 | 151317.42 | 467.98 | 2229.19 | 98.548
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12400 | 9862 (0.79577) | 2531 | 7 | 21512.33 | 21274.84 | 400.00 | 237.49 | 98.896
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11567 | 9894 (0.85692) | 1652 | 21 | 12287.74 | 12040.25 | 400.00 | 247.48 | 97.986
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5606 | 5126 (0.91552) | 473 | 7 | 9865.97 | 9791.56 | 0.00 | 74.40 | 99.246
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7607 | 7318 (0.97991) | 150 | 139 | 16309.10 | 16031.33 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1318135 | 538658 | 777992 | 1485 | 329637.49 | 320693.57 | 147.21 | 8943.91 | 97.287
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45477 | 22951 | 22317 | 209 | 537844.67 | 534471.07 | 5673.35 | 3373.60 | 99.373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1363612 | 561609 | 800309 | 1694 | 867482.17 | 855164.65 | 5820.56 | 12317.52 | 98.580
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12317.52011634 BTC (1.420%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 686.95472500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11630.56539134 BTC (1.341%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4516574 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2527097 (56.0%)
Blockchain MB: 1873.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1032.9 (55.1%)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21614 | 0 (0.00000) | 21251 | 363 | 191.04 | 0.01 | 32.16 | 191.02 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1788 | 0 (0.00000) | 1714 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2378 | 0 (0.00000) | 2341 | 37 | 29.91 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.88 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2514 | 1 (0.00040) | 2469 | 44 | 52.22 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.15 | 15.445
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2564 | 1 (0.00040) | 2527 | 36 | 95.14 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.88 | 4.477
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5504 | 3 (0.00055) | 5489 | 12 | 381.22 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.89 | 79.567
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7891 | 8 (0.00102) | 7861 | 22 | 646.98 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.59 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10047 | 19 (0.00190) | 9972 | 56 | 1598.66 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.01 | 79.732
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9911 | 43 (0.00434) | 9854 | 14 | 1288.07 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.108
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15215 | 116 (0.00763) | 15090 | 9 | 2650.96 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.12 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30194 | 450 (0.01491) | 29732 | 12 | 8325.94 | 7700.68 | 1.80 | 625.25 | 92.490
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15056 | 344 (0.02286) | 14706 | 6 | 4701.45 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.38 | 103.348
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22717 | 700 (0.03082) | 22013 | 4 | 5486.15 | 4647.35 | 9.24 | 838.79 | 84.711
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15293 | 704 (0.04606) | 14581 | 8 | 6795.96 | 8066.48 | 24.99 | -1270.52 | 118.695
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15871 | 984 (0.06202) | 14883 | 4 | 4645.85 | 4126.35 | 31.20 | 519.49 | 88.818
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21103 | 1973 (0.09357) | 19112 | 18 | 10109.67 | 10074.06 | 7.01 | 35.61 | 99.648
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84641 | 10416 (0.12309) | 74202 | 23 | 10352.67 | 8943.34 | 0.00 | 1409.32 | 86.387
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21075 | 3954 (0.18773) | 17108 | 13 | 8271.75 | 8517.32 | 14.50 | -245.56 | 102.969
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83367 | 20298 (0.24354) | 63046 | 23 | 49803.79 | 48623.81 | 347.79 | 1179.98 | 97.631
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60823 | 22328 (0.36737) | 38450 | 45 | 29914.13 | 29164.21 | 212.64 | 749.92 | 97.493
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 530782 | 258784 (0.48795) | 271561 | 437 | 317903.19 | 316505.08 | 2173.41 | 1398.11 | 99.560
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195105 | 97239 (0.49886) | 97683 | 183 | 190690.25 | 188454.71 | 1295.22 | 2235.53 | 98.828
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150979 | 111044 (0.73587) | 39858 | 77 | 153546.62 | 151317.42 | 467.98 | 2229.19 | 98.548
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12400 | 9862 (0.79577) | 2531 | 7 | 21512.33 | 21274.84 | 400.00 | 237.49 | 98.896
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11567 | 9894 (0.85692) | 1652 | 21 | 12287.74 | 12040.25 | 400.00 | 247.48 | 97.986
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5606 | 5126 (0.91552) | 473 | 7 | 9865.97 | 9791.56 | 0.00 | 74.40 | 99.246
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7607 | 7318 (0.97991) | 150 | 139 | 16309.10 | 16031.33 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1318135 | 538658 | 777992 | 1485 | 329637.49 | 320693.57 | 147.21 | 8943.91 | 97.287
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45477 | 22951 | 22317 | 209 | 537844.67 | 534471.07 | 5673.35 | 3373.60 | 99.373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1363612 | 561609 | 800309 | 1694 | 867482.17 | 855164.65 | 5820.56 | 12317.52 | 98.580
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12317.52011634 BTC (1.420%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 686.95472500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11630.56539134 BTC (1.341%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4516574 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2527097 (56.0%)
Blockchain MB: 1873.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1032.9 (55.1%)
my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.
The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents.
http://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.png
The question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour?
The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money.
haha ikr? im currently down 30BTC fml
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-24 11:48am (up to block 200351)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21575 | 0 (0.00000) | 21213 | 362 | 190.53 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.51 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1787 | 0 (0.00000) | 1713 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2375 | 0 (0.00000) | 2338 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2512 | 1 (0.00041) | 2467 | 44 | 52.20 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.13 | 15.451
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10039 | 19 (0.00190) | 9964 | 56 | 1598.64 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.99 | 79.733
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15210 | 116 (0.00763) | 15085 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30178 | 449 (0.01488) | 29717 | 12 | 8325.83 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 625.79 | 92.484
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15052 | 344 (0.02286) | 14702 | 6 | 4701.37 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.46 | 103.349
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22659 | 699 (0.03085) | 21956 | 4 | 5483.76 | 4646.71 | 9.24 | 837.04 | 84.736
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15273 | 702 (0.04599) | 14563 | 8 | 6795.37 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1269.77 | 118.686
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15859 | 981 (0.06187) | 14874 | 4 | 4644.66 | 4121.07 | 31.20 | 523.59 | 88.727
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21060 | 1972 (0.09372) | 19070 | 18 | 10029.58 | 9967.08 | 7.01 | 62.50 | 99.377
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84602 | 10411 (0.12309) | 74168 | 23 | 10348.87 | 8942.19 | 0.00 | 1406.67 | 86.407
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21035 | 3947 (0.18776) | 17075 | 13 | 8218.93 | 8418.93 | 14.50 | -200.00 | 102.433
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83064 | 20233 (0.24365) | 62808 | 23 | 49522.04 | 48450.32 | 347.79 | 1071.71 | 97.836
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60746 | 22292 (0.36724) | 38409 | 45 | 29892.85 | 29134.37 | 212.64 | 758.48 | 97.463
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 528699 | 257745 (0.48791) | 270517 | 437 | 317403.06 | 316040.32 | 2173.41 | 1362.74 | 99.571
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194816 | 97086 (0.49882) | 97547 | 183 | 190121.85 | 187888.95 | 1295.22 | 2232.89 | 98.826
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150818 | 110927 (0.73588) | 39814 | 77 | 153498.86 | 151267.40 | 467.98 | 2231.45 | 98.546
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12247 | 9739 (0.79567) | 2501 | 7 | 20989.49 | 20951.13 | 400.00 | 38.35 | 99.817
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11526 | 9859 (0.85693) | 1646 | 21 | 12150.76 | 12021.12 | 400.00 | 129.63 | 98.933
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5579 | 5102 (0.91565) | 470 | 7 | 9847.91 | 9776.02 | 0.00 | 71.89 | 99.270
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7603 | 7314 (0.97990) | 150 | 139 | 16308.70 | 16030.93 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1314776 | 537070 | 776222 | 1484 | 329034.51 | 320074.85 | 147.11 | 8959.66 | 97.277
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45399 | 22923 | 22267 | 209 | 536207.58 | 533232.72 | 5673.35 | 2974.86 | 99.445
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1360175 | 559993 | 798489 | 1693 | 865242.10 | 853307.57 | 5820.46 | 11934.52 | 98.621
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11934.52699252 BTC (1.379%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 685.22687500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11249.30011752 BTC (1.300%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4494521 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2520228 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 1864.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1030.1 (55.3%)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21575 | 0 (0.00000) | 21213 | 362 | 190.53 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.51 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1787 | 0 (0.00000) | 1713 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2375 | 0 (0.00000) | 2338 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2512 | 1 (0.00041) | 2467 | 44 | 52.20 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.13 | 15.451
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10039 | 19 (0.00190) | 9964 | 56 | 1598.64 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.99 | 79.733
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15210 | 116 (0.00763) | 15085 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30178 | 449 (0.01488) | 29717 | 12 | 8325.83 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 625.79 | 92.484
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15052 | 344 (0.02286) | 14702 | 6 | 4701.37 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.46 | 103.349
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22659 | 699 (0.03085) | 21956 | 4 | 5483.76 | 4646.71 | 9.24 | 837.04 | 84.736
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15273 | 702 (0.04599) | 14563 | 8 | 6795.37 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1269.77 | 118.686
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15859 | 981 (0.06187) | 14874 | 4 | 4644.66 | 4121.07 | 31.20 | 523.59 | 88.727
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21060 | 1972 (0.09372) | 19070 | 18 | 10029.58 | 9967.08 | 7.01 | 62.50 | 99.377
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84602 | 10411 (0.12309) | 74168 | 23 | 10348.87 | 8942.19 | 0.00 | 1406.67 | 86.407
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21035 | 3947 (0.18776) | 17075 | 13 | 8218.93 | 8418.93 | 14.50 | -200.00 | 102.433
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83064 | 20233 (0.24365) | 62808 | 23 | 49522.04 | 48450.32 | 347.79 | 1071.71 | 97.836
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60746 | 22292 (0.36724) | 38409 | 45 | 29892.85 | 29134.37 | 212.64 | 758.48 | 97.463
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 528699 | 257745 (0.48791) | 270517 | 437 | 317403.06 | 316040.32 | 2173.41 | 1362.74 | 99.571
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194816 | 97086 (0.49882) | 97547 | 183 | 190121.85 | 187888.95 | 1295.22 | 2232.89 | 98.826
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150818 | 110927 (0.73588) | 39814 | 77 | 153498.86 | 151267.40 | 467.98 | 2231.45 | 98.546
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12247 | 9739 (0.79567) | 2501 | 7 | 20989.49 | 20951.13 | 400.00 | 38.35 | 99.817
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11526 | 9859 (0.85693) | 1646 | 21 | 12150.76 | 12021.12 | 400.00 | 129.63 | 98.933
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5579 | 5102 (0.91565) | 470 | 7 | 9847.91 | 9776.02 | 0.00 | 71.89 | 99.270
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7603 | 7314 (0.97990) | 150 | 139 | 16308.70 | 16030.93 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1314776 | 537070 | 776222 | 1484 | 329034.51 | 320074.85 | 147.11 | 8959.66 | 97.277
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45399 | 22923 | 22267 | 209 | 536207.58 | 533232.72 | 5673.35 | 2974.86 | 99.445
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1360175 | 559993 | 798489 | 1693 | 865242.10 | 853307.57 | 5820.46 | 11934.52 | 98.621
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11934.52699252 BTC (1.379%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 685.22687500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 11249.30011752 BTC (1.300%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4494521 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2520228 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 1864.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1030.1 (55.3%)
I looked into the recent profits for SD. It doesn't look like a martingale series - it's mostly someone (or maybe 2 people) making a bunch of large <48000 bets and having a run of bad luck:
Code:
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 41c74bcd163391409301acf1e0ccf701f24877be2a12d30d2eb69daa985b5396 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 250.00000000 WIN 84.39083333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 499ebca078d841cf4f1b751d298c0a4b9a93697481cb12a71d0e32b1fccae59d 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 113.00000000 WIN 38.14438266
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 db1c668dd580318070a9490fabf4485b34af55ce71f0316e04fad2d9046fbd87 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 80.00000000 WIN 27.00472666
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 9343ed1359217dffc93a06c1f8ed6b973edb70622f8f5500b9af381e29639f66 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 dafd962e26e16650da9aa60f9edb46d5529e06912e39b9d19a95189a848b132d 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 142.00000000 WIN 47.93377733
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 58fad4d8d35d348bbbc0bcd172cf51892936b9977a66f81aa43c60960fb66b86 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 190.00000000 WIN 64.13691333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 3e92f6bb0b437e880baf6c9c797506cf6a919619954c4841256b115b6227ac74 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 8e7271e75e0a815f28c410a8792490fc09f63c29d481593fcc7e2b9a99d39c1b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 33.75603333
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 d00f27c4aa977163487eba2a4fd6f943bed22b9da1055f97e12c78272209a20b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 31374a58cc0514fb8dc4cbaa28ccfd3b23d3594e2bd9963c4a1732f0aed5e8ee 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 241.00000000 LOSE -239.79550000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 c08b14f2a47dfe1f625667c2618cb4cba6205960a0146cc1cadb3190bd847a35 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 131ac681d069314099722a3277beef79196d6d685e5c2628dc4b14d9634dd6f8 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 151.00000000 LOSE -150.24550000
Mon Sep 24 02:52:05 2012 <48000 b200249 73450a6a86c84bce8a352c6d01b606abd832e44800e1ecd283cf48230c4fafa1 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 86.53000000 WIN 29.20902829
Mon Sep 24 03:11:30 2012 <48000 b200250 b67db3417755f8d574b81065e6c77ea2283921b8250b3964e2b2e2bffca087f3 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 115.70000000 LOSE -115.12200000
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-23 09:47pm (up to block 200255)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21558 | 0 (0.00000) | 21197 | 361 | 190.19 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.17 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1786 | 0 (0.00000) | 1712 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2374 | 0 (0.00000) | 2337 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2511 | 1 (0.00041) | 2466 | 44 | 52.19 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.12 | 15.453
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10032 | 19 (0.00190) | 9957 | 56 | 1598.53 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.88 | 79.739
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15209 | 116 (0.00763) | 15084 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30041 | 449 (0.01495) | 29580 | 12 | 8321.87 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 621.83 | 92.528
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15049 | 344 (0.02287) | 14699 | 6 | 4701.20 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.64 | 103.353
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22624 | 698 (0.03086) | 21922 | 4 | 5482.03 | 4645.75 | 9.24 | 836.28 | 84.745
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15247 | 702 (0.04607) | 14537 | 8 | 6794.75 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1270.38 | 118.697
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15846 | 980 (0.06186) | 14862 | 4 | 4644.35 | 4120.91 | 31.20 | 523.43 | 88.730
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21018 | 1970 (0.09381) | 19030 | 18 | 10026.55 | 9963.02 | 7.01 | 63.53 | 99.366
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84424 | 10392 (0.12313) | 74009 | 23 | 10338.29 | 8936.32 | 0.00 | 1401.96 | 86.439
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21028 | 3944 (0.18768) | 17071 | 13 | 8216.92 | 8413.58 | 14.50 | -196.65 | 102.393
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 82619 | 20130 (0.24372) | 62466 | 23 | 49438.90 | 48380.01 | 347.79 | 1058.88 | 97.858
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60385 | 22164 (0.36732) | 38176 | 45 | 29746.72 | 28983.98 | 212.64 | 762.74 | 97.436
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 526137 | 256545 (0.48800) | 269163 | 429 | 316854.21 | 315488.41 | 2173.41 | 1365.79 | 99.569
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194045 | 96699 (0.49880) | 97164 | 182 | 188426.43 | 186761.00 | 1295.22 | 1665.42 | 99.116
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150649 | 110802 (0.73587) | 39770 | 77 | 152861.37 | 150462.54 | 467.98 | 2398.83 | 98.431
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12153 | 9663 (0.79557) | 2483 | 7 | 20885.33 | 20865.38 | 400.00 | 19.94 | 99.904
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11444 | 9789 (0.85696) | 1634 | 21 | 11211.26 | 10950.07 | 400.00 | 261.19 | 97.670
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5573 | 5097 (0.91574) | 469 | 7 | 9834.99 | 9762.19 | 0.00 | 72.79 | 99.260
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7599 | 7310 (0.97989) | 150 | 139 | 16307.59 | 16029.82 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1309883 | 534990 | 773419 | 1474 | 328052.51 | 319164.21 | 147.10 | 8888.29 | 97.291
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45329 | 22879 | 22241 | 209 | 532997.99 | 530249.80 | 5673.35 | 2748.18 | 99.484
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1355212 | 557869 | 795660 | 1683 | 861050.50 | 849414.01 | 5820.46 | 11636.48 | 98.649
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11636.48912696 BTC (1.351%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 682.72930000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 10953.75982696 BTC (1.272%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4476982 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2510589 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 1856.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1026.1 (55.3%)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21558 | 0 (0.00000) | 21197 | 361 | 190.19 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.17 | 0.010
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1786 | 0 (0.00000) | 1712 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2374 | 0 (0.00000) | 2337 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2511 | 1 (0.00041) | 2466 | 44 | 52.19 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.12 | 15.453
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10032 | 19 (0.00190) | 9957 | 56 | 1598.53 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.88 | 79.739
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15209 | 116 (0.00763) | 15084 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30041 | 449 (0.01495) | 29580 | 12 | 8321.87 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 621.83 | 92.528
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15049 | 344 (0.02287) | 14699 | 6 | 4701.20 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.64 | 103.353
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22624 | 698 (0.03086) | 21922 | 4 | 5482.03 | 4645.75 | 9.24 | 836.28 | 84.745
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15247 | 702 (0.04607) | 14537 | 8 | 6794.75 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1270.38 | 118.697
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15846 | 980 (0.06186) | 14862 | 4 | 4644.35 | 4120.91 | 31.20 | 523.43 | 88.730
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21018 | 1970 (0.09381) | 19030 | 18 | 10026.55 | 9963.02 | 7.01 | 63.53 | 99.366
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84424 | 10392 (0.12313) | 74009 | 23 | 10338.29 | 8936.32 | 0.00 | 1401.96 | 86.439
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21028 | 3944 (0.18768) | 17071 | 13 | 8216.92 | 8413.58 | 14.50 | -196.65 | 102.393
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 82619 | 20130 (0.24372) | 62466 | 23 | 49438.90 | 48380.01 | 347.79 | 1058.88 | 97.858
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60385 | 22164 (0.36732) | 38176 | 45 | 29746.72 | 28983.98 | 212.64 | 762.74 | 97.436
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 526137 | 256545 (0.48800) | 269163 | 429 | 316854.21 | 315488.41 | 2173.41 | 1365.79 | 99.569
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194045 | 96699 (0.49880) | 97164 | 182 | 188426.43 | 186761.00 | 1295.22 | 1665.42 | 99.116
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150649 | 110802 (0.73587) | 39770 | 77 | 152861.37 | 150462.54 | 467.98 | 2398.83 | 98.431
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12153 | 9663 (0.79557) | 2483 | 7 | 20885.33 | 20865.38 | 400.00 | 19.94 | 99.904
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11444 | 9789 (0.85696) | 1634 | 21 | 11211.26 | 10950.07 | 400.00 | 261.19 | 97.670
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5573 | 5097 (0.91574) | 469 | 7 | 9834.99 | 9762.19 | 0.00 | 72.79 | 99.260
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7599 | 7310 (0.97989) | 150 | 139 | 16307.59 | 16029.82 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1309883 | 534990 | 773419 | 1474 | 328052.51 | 319164.21 | 147.10 | 8888.29 | 97.291
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45329 | 22879 | 22241 | 209 | 532997.99 | 530249.80 | 5673.35 | 2748.18 | 99.484
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1355212 | 557869 | 795660 | 1683 | 861050.50 | 849414.01 | 5820.46 | 11636.48 | 98.649
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11636.48912696 BTC (1.351%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 682.72930000 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 10953.75982696 BTC (1.272%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 4476982 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2510589 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 1856.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1026.1 (55.3%)
Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
I've not. I looked at the progressive games when they were first introduced, and saw that the way they worked meant that sometimes they were incredibly worth playing. After making a nice profit playing them at the right time the rules were changed. Now they're almost never worth playing. The expected return is horrible. As a result almost nobody plays them, so I decided just to ignore them.
Look at the current progressive pot. I have a 0.02596% chance of turning 0.25 BTC into 626.0639 BTC. That's a 1 in 3852 chance of multiplying my stake by 2504. Or in other words a 65% expected return.
>>> 100 * 626.0639 / 0.25 / (100 / 0.02596)
65.010475376
I expect they're being honest though. At those odds why would they need to cheat?
Edit: this game did puzzle me for a while though. They claim to only take a 2% cut from the progressive games - each time the pot is won, they take their small cut, give 65% to the player, and leave the rest in the pot for the next winner. So if the players are getting a 65% return, and the house is only taking 2%, where does the rest go?
To simplify the game, consider these rules:
* you're the only person playing
* each turn costs 1 BTC
* when you win, you win the whole pot
* when you lose, your whole bet gets added to the pot
* each time you bet, your odds of winning are 1 in (pot * 10)
So
* each bet has an expected return of 10%, or 0.1 BTC (you're betting 1 BTC to win 'pot' BTC, with a 1-in-(pot*10) chance of winning)
* but eventually you win, and get all your money back - doesn't this imply your expected return of 100% in the long term?
These two contradict each other - the return can't be 10% each bet, and 100% in the long term.
I think the way I eventually resolved the contradiction is that "eventually you win" isn't true. You might give up before you win. In that case the house gets to keep the whole pot. And the same applies in the SD progressive game, I think. They only take 2% if the pot is won, but it's quite likely that the pot won't ever be won, in which case they keep everything.
Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
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